Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025: ‘Challengers’ jumps into Best Score Top 5 [Updated October 28]
If the 2025 Oscars nominations were announced today, what would Gold Derby predict as the nominees and winners? Since our predictions center opened on July 1, 2024, more than 5,100 people have made their forecasts in 18 top categories. So who’s out front to claim these golden trophies, according to the Gold Derby Oscar predictions 2025?
Below, see a snapshot in time of our racetrack odds for the 97th Academy Awards, updated on October 28, 2024. See how the odds and rankings have changed over time by examining our previous Oscar snapshots on July 3, July 9, July 16, July 23, July 29, August 6, August 19, August 28, September 11, September 19, September 23, September 30, October 7, October 14, and October 22.
Now expected to receive a nomination since the last update: “A Real Pain” in Best Picture, “Challengers” in Best Score for Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross, and “Sing Sing” (“Like a Bird”) in Best Song for Adrian Quesada & Abraham Alexander. Note that the music score for “Dune: Part Two” was deemed ineligible last week, which helps account for “Challenger’s” rise in that category.
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Gold Derby’s Academy Awards odds are based on the combined forecasts of Experts we’ve polled from major media outlets, Editors who cover awards year-round for this website, Top 24 Users who did the best predicting the winners last time, All-Star Users who had the best prediction scores over the last two years, and the mass of Users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. We will continue to update the Oscar predictions center whenever new information is provided to us by the studios/campaigners.
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 15/2
2. “Emilia Perez” — 17/2
3. “The Brutalist” — 17/2
4. “Conclave” — 17/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 19/2
6. “Sing Sing” — 10/1
7. “Blitz” — 15/1
8. “Gladiator II” — 15/1
9. “Nickel Boys” — 18/1
10. “A Real Pain” — 25/1
Predicted Spoilers
“September 5,” “A Complete Unknown,” “The Piano Lesson,” “Wicked,” “The Room Next Door,” “The Substance”
See more Best Picture contenders …
BEST DIRECTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Sean Baker (“Anora”) — 4/1
2. Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) — 9/2
3. Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) — 6/1
4. Edward Berger (“Conclave”) — 8/1
5. Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) — 8/1
Predicted Spoilers
Ridley Scott (“Gladiator II”), Steve McQueen (“Blitz”), RaMell Ross (“Nickel Boys”), Mohammad Rasoulof (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”), Pedro Almodovar (“The Room Next Door”)
See more Best Director contenders …
BEST ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Mikey Madison (“Anora”) — 39/10
2. Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) — 9/2
3. Angelina Jolie (“Maria”) — 5/1
4. Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”) — 17/2
5. Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”) — 21/2
Predicted Spoilers
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”), Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”), Demi Moore (“The Substance”), Tilda Swinton (“The Room Next Door”), Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
See more Best Actress contenders …
BEST ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) — 4/1
2. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) — 4/1
3. Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) — 9/2
4. Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) — 6/1
5. Daniel Craig (“Queer”) — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”), Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”)
See more Best Actor contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Predicted Nominees
1. Zoe Saldana (“Emilia Perez”) — 37/10
2. Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”) — 9/2
3. Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”) — 6/1
4. Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”) — 17/2
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (“Nickel Boys”) — 9/1
Predicted Spoilers
Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”), Selena Gomez (“Emilia Perez”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked”), Toni Collette (“Juror #2”), Joan Chen (“Didi”)
See more Best Supporting Actress contenders …
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Predicted Nominees
1. Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”) — 9/2
2. Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”) — 5/1
3. Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”) — 11/2
4. Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”) — 11/2
5. Stanley Tucci (“Conclave”) — 11/1
Predicted Spoilers
Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”), Samuel L. Jackson (“The Piano Lesson”), Edward Norton (“A Complete Unknown”), Yura Borisov (“Anora”), Peter Sarsgaard (“September 5”)
See more Best Supporting Actor contenders …
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Conclave” — 19/5
2. “Sing Sing” — 4/1
3. “Nickel Boys” — 6/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 15/2
5. “Dune: Part Two” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Room Next Door,” “The Piano Lesson,” “Nightbitch,” “Queer,” “Gladiator II”
See more Best Adapted Screenplay contenders …
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Predicted Nominees
1. “Anora” — 71/20
2. “The Brutalist” — 9/2
3. “A Real Pain” — 11/2
4. “Blitz” — 19/2
5. “Saturday Night” — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
“September 5,” “Hard Truths,” “The Substance,” “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” “Challengers”
See more Best Original Screenplay contenders …
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Brutalist” — 18/5
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
3. “Emilia Perez” — 6/1
4. “Nickel Boys” — 17/2
5. “Maria” — 19/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Conclave,” “Gladiator II,” “Nosferatu,” “Blitz,” “Anora”
See more Best Cinematography contenders …
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Predicted Nominees
1. “Wicked” — 19/5
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
3. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
4. “Maria” — 11/2
5. “Blitz” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“The Brutalist,” “Nosferatu,” “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” “Conclave,” “Emilia Perez”
See more Best Costume Design contenders …
BEST FILM EDITING
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Brutalist” — 4/1
2. “Dune: Part Two” — 9/2
3. “Anora” — 5/1
4. “Conclave” — 6/1
5. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
Predicted Spoilers
“September 5,” “Gladiator II,” “Challengers,” “Blitz,” “Nickel Boys”
See more Best Film Editing contenders …
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 4/1
2. “The Substance” — 4/1
3. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” — 11/2
4. “Wicked” — 6/1
5. “Nosferatu” — 17/2
Predicted Spoilers
“A Different Man,” “Emilia Perez,” “The Apprentice,” “Gladiator II,” “Sasquatch Sunset”
See more Best Makeup & Hairstyling contenders …
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 37/10
2. “Gladiator II” — 9/2
3. “The Brutalist” — 9/2
4. “Wicked” — 11/2
5. “Blitz” — 13/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Conclave,” “Nosferatu,” “Emilia Perez,” “Maria,” “Joker: Folie à Deux”
See more Best Production Design contenders …
BEST SCORE
Predicted Nominees
1. “Conclave” — 19/5
2. “The Brutalist” — 4/1
3. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
4. “The Wild Robot” — 13/2
5. “Challengers” — 15/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Saturday Night,” “The Room Next Door,” “Gladiator II,” “Blitz,” “Nickel Boys”
See more Best Score contenders …
BEST SONG
Predicted Nominees
1. “Emilia Perez” (“El Mal”) — 4/1
2. “The Wild Robot” (“Kiss the Sky”) — 9/2
3. “The Six Triple Eight” (“The Journey”) — 13/2
4. “Emilia Perez” (“Mi Camino”) — 8/1
5. “Sing Sing” (“Like a Bird”) — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Piece by Piece” (“Piece by Piece”), “Will and Harper” (“Harper and Will Go West”), “Blitz” (“Winter Coat”), “Mufasa: The Lion King” (“I Always Wanted a Brother”), “Moana 2” (“Beyond”).
See more Best Song contenders …
BEST SOUND
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 69/20
2. “Gladiator II” — 9/2
3. “Blitz” — 5/1
4. “Emilia Perez” — 13/2
5. “Twisters” — 23/2
Predicted Spoilers
“Wicked,” “Conclave,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga,” “The Substance”
See more Best Sound contenders …
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Predicted Nominees
1. “Dune: Part Two” — 10/3
2. “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” — 9/2
3. “Gladiator II” — 5/1
4. “Twisters” — 15/2
5. “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” — 10/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Mufasa: The Lion King,” “Wicked,” “Here,” “Blitz,” “Alien: Romulus”
See more Best Visual Effects contenders …
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Predicted Nominees
1. “The Wild Robot” — 10/3
2. “Inside Out 2” — 39/10
3. “Memoir of a Snail” — 5/1
4. “Flow” — 6/1
5. “Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” — 7/1
Predicted Spoilers
“Moana 2,” “Piece by Piece,” “Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim,” “Transformers One,” “Despicable Me 4”
See more Best Animated Feature contenders …
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