Trump beat his polls twice—and it could happen again

In 2016, Democrats headed into Election Day confident they’d win the White House. Many election forecasts were confident of that. But of course, that's not what happened. Donald Trump landed on the lucky side of a normal polling error.

In 2020, the polls were off by even more, but it's easy not to dwell on that since Joe Biden won.

Four years ago, Biden led Trump by over 10 percentage points in mid-October, according to 538’s national polling average. As the election drew nearer, Biden even saw his margin in some swing-state polls hit double digits, such as when The New York Times/Siena College—arguably the country’s best pollster—showed Biden leading by 11 points in Wisconsin.

But Biden went on to win the Badger State by just 0.6 points. And his national popular-vote lead? Barely over 4 points, and roughly half of the 8.4-point polling lead he had on Election Day.

So what does that mean for the 2024 election, in which polling has consistently shown coin-flip odds?