How the Cavs stack up in a more physical NBA
Does a NBA with less fouls hurt or help the Cavs heading into the new season?
There was a subtle sea change in the NBA last season. The league that once let James Harden shoot (and make) 24 free throws in one game saw average free throw attempts drop last season. The change brought the free throw rate per 100 shots to the lowest point it has been in NBA history.
This shift got rave reviews. The consensus seems to be that this new NBA with fewer free throws and more Bill Laimbeer’s Combat Basketball is here to stay. Let’s dive into what these changes might mean for the Cleveland Cavaliers as their latest campaign begins.
To start with, the Cavs were not a very good free-throw shooting team last season. They hit only 76.5% of their free throws ranking 22nd in the league. Donovan Mitchell and crew were affected by the league changes, like most teams, averaging one free throw less per game post-All-Star break. They dropped from nearly 16 a game to a little under 15 a game. One less opportunity per game can be meaningful, games are won and lost on slim margins, but as the Cavs haven’t been relying on the line to win games one less opportunity per game likely won’t be a giant factor in success in the coming season.
The lighter whistles should, however, help incentivize the Cavs to space the floor more as they are less likely to get any easy calls in a clogged paint this season. This already seems to be part of the direction new coach Kenny Atkinson wants the team to go. He is looking to open up the middle of the court and to put up more threes per game. These ideas shouldn’t come as a surprise for those who have followed the Cavs the past couple of years but hopefully, in a world with even more incentive to stay out of the paint, the Cavs can follow through and make this a reality.
The defense was a bit of a different story. The new brawnier NBA helped the Cavs with opponents shooting more than two less free throws per game against the team post-All-Star (17.5 pre and 15.1 post). Unfortunately, this didn’t help the record with the team losing 17 of their 29 games over that time period (not great, Bob!).
The Cavs’ two big lineups with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen sharing the floor should see this change as great news. Neither is particularly foul prone but being more physical in the paint should make their job of keeping the ball out of the basket easier. It is also possible this can be extremely helpful for Mitchell who is short but has the tools to be a physical point-of-attack defender. The Cavs team as a whole was only middle of the road in steals per game in the 2023-2024 season but Mitchell, as the leader in steals last season, can hopefully take advantage of more physicality to help generate more steals and create more transition opportunities in the upcoming season.
What can we take from all of this? I believe this points to good things for the Cavs in the upcoming season. The point differentials for winning and losing over 82 games are very small. In the 2023-2024 season, the Cavs point difference was only +2.4 points per 100 possessions. If combat basketball sticks and our sample from the end of last year is real, we could see the Cavs’ opponents have the opportunity for up to two fewer points per game while the Cavs lose out on only one additional opportunity. It’s not much but it is enough to make me feel excited.