Grammys rap nominations predictions: Eminem and Kanye may overcome poor reviews, but Kendrick is tough to beat

I think it’s fair to say it’s been a great year for rap. While the genre has slipped a little in popularity compared to the last decade, it has seen a resurgence compared to 2023, with major releases and cultural moments that will surely be remembered for years to come. Grammy winners Kendrick Lamar, Killer Mike, and Eminem are among the many contenders this year looking to grab some coveted nominations at the award show’s 67th edition, with nominations due November 8.

Kendrick Lamar’s diss track “Not Like Us,” the pinnacle of Lamar’s feud with fellow rap superstar Drake, was easily the biggest event in hip-hop this year, topping the Billboard Hot 100. Let’s be honest, it’s probably locked to win Best Rap Performance and Best Rap Song. Lamar is one of the Grammys’ favorite artists, already the third most awarded rapper in the awards’ history. He will also probably be nominated for his hit “Like That” alongside Metro Boomin and Future, though, due to academy rules, “Like That” and “Not Like Us” can’t both be nominated for Best Rap Performance. They can both get into Best Rap Song, however.

Future and Metro Boomin are also the front-runners for Best Rap Album for their hit collaborative record “We Don’t Trust You,” which contains a second hit, “Type Shit.” The album arguably being the most commercially successful rap record of the year might be enough for them to win, especially with the Lamar co-sign. They are also on the Best Melodic Rap Performance ballot for their The Weeknd-assisted “We Still Don’t Trust You,” although a win for that seems less likely.

Another strong contender this year is last year’s sweeper, Killer Mike. The rapper is back with “Michael and the Mighty Midnight Revival: Songs for Sinners and Saints,” which will very likely net him nominations all across the rap field, like last year. Mike is on the ballot for “Humble Me” for Best Rap Performance and Best Rap Song, both of which he won last year, as well as Best Melodic Rap Performance for “Exit 9 (Scenic Route),” a continuation of a song from his 2024 Best Rap Album winner “Michael.”

Likely joining him will be another rap veteran: Eminem. He released the somewhat controversial album “The Death of Slim Shady” this year to relatively poor reviews but strong commercial performance. He’s a field favorite, so it’s hard to imagine rap voters passing him over altogether. Hence, the hit single “Houdini” is likely in for Best Rap Performance, while “Tobey” could sneak into Best Rap Song, not to mention the album’s likely nom for Best Rap Album.

2024 has also been a good year for female rappers, so hopefully that will be reflected in the nominations. GloRilla had three major hits this year, including her submission “Yeah Glo!” While the track might struggle in Best Rap Song, it’s a possibility in Best Rap Performance, especially since Glo’s “FNF” was nominated there a couple of years ago. GloRilla’s mixtape “Ehhthang Ehhthang” could also net a nomination just based on her singles’ success alone.

There’s also Megan Thee Stallion, who is on the ballot for Best Rap Performance with her hits “Hiss” and “Mamushi,” while only the former is in Best Rap Song. Perhaps she tried submitting “Mamushi” to Best Melodic Rap Performance but it got moved by the genre screening committee, since submitting two songs in the same category is typically not the best strategy. This could cost Megan a nomination for Best Rap Performance, but the chart-topping diss track “Hiss” might have been a big enough cultural moment to guarantee it a Best Rap Song nom. “Megan,” the album, could also get into Best Rap Album.

We’ve also got Doja Cat’s “Scarlet 2: Claude,” in the running for Best Rap Album, with probably the best reviews for a female rap project this season. The track “Demons” might get nominated for either Best Rap Performance or Best Rap Song, and she has also submitted “Acknowledge Me” for Best Melodic Rap Performance.

Last but not least among the female contenders is Nicki Minaj, who has a mixed track record at the Grammys. She has never won, but was nominated last year. While it’s unlikely that “RnB” gets nominated for Best Melodic Rap Performance, she could make it into Best Rap Performance or Best Rap Song for “FTCU,” as well as Best Rap Album for “Pink Friday 2.”

Other possibilities include Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign’s “Vultures 1,” a critical disappointment for the artist, but West is a field favorite (he’s the most awarded rapper of all time, tied with Jay-Z), so his single “Carnival” could fare well in Best Rap Performance or Best Rap Song, and “Vultures” could still get into Best Rap Album based on name recognition alone.

21 Savage’s “American Dream” was one of the best reviewed projects by a rap artist this year, so it’s likely that he pops up somewhere, perhaps for “Redrum” in Best Rap Performance and Best Rap Song, or the Summer Walker-assisted “Prove It” in Best Melodic Rap Performance, and of course Best Rap Album.

And of course, while her album “Cowboy Carter” is competing in the country field, Beyoncé is a previous rap field winner, so a nomination for “Spaghettii,” featuring Shaboozey and Linda Martell, is a lock for Best Melodic Rap Performance.

Meanwhile, there are standalone hits looking to get nominated. Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” was one of the biggest rap hits of the year, spending six weeks atop the Billboard Hot 100, and Harlow has been embraced by the Grammys before (though he hasn’t won yet), so expect it to show up in Best Rap Performance. Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me” should be a shoo-in for Best Melodic Rap Performance, especially after going viral on TikTok and peaking inside the top-10 on the rap/R&B airplay chart.

There are also two airplay chart-toppers in that category. First is the likely front-runner, Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby,” which peaked at number-two on the Hot 100 and is undoubtedly the biggest hit eligible in the category. But there’s also Jordan Adetunji’s “Kehlani” remix, featuring Kehlani herself, which is currently peaking on the radio charts and performed well on TikTok. Kehlani is having a great year, and is overdue for a Grammy, so perhaps the song will benefit from that narrative.

My final nominations predictions:

Best Rap Performance
Eminem, “Houdini”
GloRilla, “Yeah Glo!”
Jack Harlow, “Lovin On Me”
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
Killer Mike, “Humble Me”

Best Melodic Rap Performance
Jordan Adetunji feat. Kehlani, “Kehlani (Remix)”
Beyoncé feat. Linda Martell and Shaboozey, “Spaghettii”
Flo Milli, “Never Lose Me”
Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby”
21 Savage and Summer Walker, “Prove It”

Best Rap Song
“Carnival” (Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign feat. Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti)
“Hiss” (Megan Thee Stallion)
“Humble Me” (Killer Mike)
“Like That” (Future and Metro Boomin feat. Kendrick Lamar)
“Not Like Us” (Kendrick Lamar)

Best Rap Album
Doja Cat, “Scarlet 2: Claude”
Eminem, “The Death of Slim Shady (Coup De Grace)”
Future and Metro Boomin, “We Don’t Trust You”
Killer Mike, “Michael and the Mighty Midnight Revival: Songs for Sinners and Saints”
Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign, “Vultures 1”