Breaking Down the NLCS Game 4 Pitching Matchup

After getting shut out for the second time in three games, the Mets are in must-win mode tonight. Luis Severino kept the team in the game, allowing two unearned runs in 4 2/3 innings, but Reed Garrett and Tylor Megill surrendered three homers to put the game out of reach. The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound as they look to even up the series, while the Dodgers will counter with Japanese rookie sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Jose Quintana

On August 20, Jose Quintana gave up seven runs in five innings to the Orioles, leaving many people wondering if his days on the Mets’ roster were numbered. He finished the regular season by allowing just three earned runs over 36 1/3 innings, and he’s continued to pitch well in the postseason. In Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, Quintana allowed just four hits and one walk, striking out five over six shutout innings against the Brewers. The 35-year-old worked around traffic in Game 4 of the NLDS, allowing just an unearned run and two hits, walking two, hitting a batter, and striking six over five-plus innings. While Quintana has yet to win a postseason game in his career, he owns a 2.43 ERA and 0.944 WHIP over 29 2/3 postseason innings.

Quintana faced the Dodgers back on May 28, allowing three runs and eight hits, including two home runs over six innings in a 3-0 loss. Quintana threw just 41.3% of his pitches in the strike zone this season, the lowest rate of any qualified pitcher, while the Dodgers chased at the second-lowest rate in baseball. The Dodgers hit the most homers in the National League and Quintana struggled at times with the long ball, giving up 22 during the regular season, but he hasn’t given up any in his last eight starts. Mookie Betts is 8-for-28 in his career against Quintana, while Freddie Freeman is 5-for-16 with a homer against the southpaw. Kevin Kiermaier is 7-for-16 against Quintana, though he is unlikely to be in the Dodgers’ starting lineup.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

In his first start of the postseason, Yoshinobu Yamamoto got battered for five runs on five hits in just three innings with only one strikeout in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Padres. However, he bounced back in Game 5 of the series with five shutout innings, earning the win as the Dodgers advanced.

Yamamoto’s most-used pitch was his four-seam fastball, but it was hit hard, to the tune of a .459 xSLG with just a 17.6% whiff rate. His best pitch was his splitter, which generated a strong 38.6% whiff rate and a weak .262 xSLG. Yamamoto also mixes in a curveball, which has a startling 61 inches of drop, a cutter, and a slider. The Mets faced Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium on April 19, jumping on him for four runs (three earned) and seven hits over six innings. Harrison Bader went 3-for-3 with an RBI that night.

The Mets have scored just one run in 12 innings against the Dodgers’ starters so far, which came on Francisco Lindor‘s lead-off homer off Ryan Brasier in Game 2. Fans clamored for Jesse Winker and Jeff McNeil on Wednesday night, but don’t expect to see them in the lineup in Game 4, as Carlos Mendoza said he plans on keeping the righties in the lineup due to Yamamoto’s reverse splits. Right-handers batted .263/.291/.453 with four homers against the 26-year-old, while lefties struggled to a .193/.268/.267 line with two homers.

Final Thoughts

On paper, the Dodgers have the upper hand in this matchup. However, Quintana has been the Mets’ best starting pitcher over the last six weeks. Additionally, Yamamoto has yet to pitch more than five innings or throw more than 79 pitches in an outing since returning from the injured list in September.

The Dodgers used all of their high-leverage relievers except Evan Phillips and Anthony Banda in Game 3, and it’s likely the Mets see those same arms tonight. It’s imperative that the Mets get to Yamamoto early and force Dave Roberts to go back to the bullpen, which has been heavily used in October. The more looks the Mets get at the Dodgers’ relievers, the more likely they are to break through and steal a game to extend the series.

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