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2024

GOP "Leaks" Two Conflicting Sets Of Senate Polls; Is The Better One Just For Trump?

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On Sunday, a leaked internal memo from the top GOP super PAC painted a grim picture for their Senate prospects. This morning, bright and early, another leaked memo (i.e., damage control) appeared from the NRSC that mostly contradicted their previous numbers and painted a far rosier picture for the Senate prospects.

So why does any of this matter? Well, for donors, it matters where to put their money, which candidates are realistic bets, and which are longshots. More importantly, though, it also feeds the narrative they want to set. The Fox News report above uses the much rosier numbers for their forecast, when most objective forecasters have a gain of one seat, (as well as West Virginia), for a 51-49 Senate, not a 51-47 Senate with a couple of toss-ups.

Source: Politico

The top GOP super PAC charged with flipping the Senate has found that most of its candidates are trailing their Democratic opponents, according to an internal polling memo obtained by POLITICO.

The new round of October polling from the Senate Leadership Fund shows all but one Republican candidate running behind Donald Trump in battleground states, a pattern that could sharply limit their ability to build a sizable majority unless they can force a change in the election's final weeks.

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