Breaking Down the NLCS Game 2 Pitching Matchup

After a 9-0 blowout Sunday night, the Mets look to reset in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series on Monday against the Dodgers. New York sent Kodai Senga to the mound on Sunday with hopes of three strong innings, but he severely lacked command of the strike zone and could only get four outs. He ultimately surrendered three runs. The Dodgers forced the Mets’ hand to deplete their bullpen resources early, turning to Reed Garrett, super utility arm David Peterson, Danny Young and Jose Buttó. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty pitched seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball, escaping jams and eliminating potential Mets threats throughout the night with ease.

The Mets look to even the series before returning to Flushing for Game 3 on Wednesday. Here are the pitching matchups for Game 2…

Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea has squashed his postseason woes thus far in 2024. After posting a career 7.32 ERA in five postseason appearances with a 1-3 record, Manaea is 1-0 with a 2.25 record in his two October starts this year. His last outing came in Game 3 of the NLDS against the Phillies on October 8. The southpaw went seven innings, allowing three hits and one run. He walked two and struck out six batters. All three hits allowed were singles.

As noted in the NLDS Game 3 pitcher breakdown, Manaea is 23rd in baseball in run value (in any pitch type), with a 15 run value on his sinker. Only the Pirates’ Paul Skenes (18 run value), Giants’ Logan Webb (17 run value) and Phillies’ Zack Wheeler (17 run value) have higher run values on the sinker. The lefty uses the pitch around 45% of the time, with hitters batting a grim .201 against the pitch. Batters are whiffing on Manaea’s sinker 21% of the time, and it’s being used as his put-away pitch 18% of the time.

Mookie Betts, a lifetime .313 hitter off Manaea (10-for-32) with three homers, two doubles, two triples and three strikeouts, excels against the sinker. He has the best run value against the pitch on the Dodgers (16). Shohei Ohtani is next with a nine run value, followed by Will Smith (seven run value) and Gavin Lux (six run value). Freddie Freeman (5-for-17), with one homer off Manaea, holds a negative four run value off the sinker, along with Andy Pages. However, of all the batters on the Dodgers’ NLCS roster, the lowest batting average against the sinker is Pages’ .270 (xBA .277).

Sean Manaea vs. Chris Sale, Mechanics pic.twitter.com/lKDcUJP1Na

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 8, 2024

Manaea faced the Dodgers once in 2024, on April 19, in Los Angeles. He pitched five innings of two-run ball, allowing four hits, three walks and striking out three. This start came months before Manaea tweaked his arm angle and delivery after watching Chris Sale pitch against the Mets. Before the tweak (and through July 24), Manaea’s ERA was 3.74 through 106 innings of work. In that span, he gave up 44 earned runs while walking 45 and striking out 101. From his next start on July 30 through October 8, he pitched to a 3.09 ERA through 75 ⅔ innings of work. In this stretch, he allowed 26 earned runs while walking 18 and striking out 83.

Walks have plagued Manaea in 2024, and the Dodgers excel at getting on base. They drew the most walks (602) in the National League in 2024, second in baseball behind the Yankees (672). Los Angeles also had the second-best on-base percentage in baseball (.335 OBP) and struck out 1,336 times (fifth-least in NL). Not only are they a threat on base, they are an absolute hitting machine. They led MLB in OPS (.781) and slugging (.446) while scoring the second-most runs (842). As a team, they hit .269/.337/.458 against southpaws (like Manaea), with 417 hits against lefties (third-most in baseball).

Bullpen Game

The Dodgers have found themselves in a precarious position in 2024. Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, River Ryan, Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Emmet Sheehan are all pitchers who have pitched or were projected to pitch for the Dodgers this season. However, their seasons were all finished before October struck due to injury. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, former Mets offseason target and owner of the most lucrative contract for a pitcher in history, missed a chunk of the season with a triceps injury, but returned by the end of the season. Even bullpen arms like Alex Vesia couldn’t escape the injury bug and were left off the NLCS roster. All to say, the Dodgers’ starting rotation is thin (Flaherty, Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Landon Knack), leading to a bullpen game.

The only reason a bullpen game was possible for Game 2 was because of Jack Flaherty‘s masterful Game 1 performance. He gave the Dodgers what they needed, going seven scoreless while limiting baserunners (two hits and two walks). The Dodgers bullpen had the fourth-best ERA in baseball in 2024 (3.53) behind the Guardians, Brewers and Braves. They struck out 628 batters (fifth in NL), combined for 50 saves (third in NL), and pitched to a 1.18 WHIP (tied for second in NL with Atlanta). However, they’ve also allowed 233 walks (tied for 11th worst in baseball), given up the eighth most home runs (78) and tied for eighth-most hits allowed in the NL (532).

The Dodgers' Bullpen game.

All 8 Pitchers in their combined shutout. pic.twitter.com/HSooZxj6Z8

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 10, 2024

The Dodgers ran a bullpen game in Game 4 of the NLDS against the Padres and won 8-0. Ryan Brasier, who is expected to open Monday, began that game as well. He was followed by former Met Anthony Banda, flamethrower Michael Kopech, Alex Vesia, Evan Phillips, Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Landon Knack. The bullpen combined for seven hits allowed (two extra-base hits), eight strikeouts and two walks. The bullpen was the savior for the Dodgers in the NLDS, throwing a combined 25 ⅔ innings across five games. They threw 19 scoreless innings, leaving a powerhouse offense baffled.

While the Mets have struggled against starters at times during the postseason, they’ve often thrived against elite bullpens, sparking their magnificent comebacks. They taxed Raisel Iglesias and the Braves bullpen for seven earned runs in just two innings in their postseason-clinching game. Pete Alonso took Devin Williams‘ Airbender deep for a series-winning homer in Game 3 of the Wild Card (Williams was ultimately charged with four earned runs and recorded only two outs). Then, in the NLDS, the Mets obliterated the Phillies bullpen — Philadelphia relievers left the series with a combined bullpen ERA of 11.37 in four games, allowing 20 hits, 16 earned runs, four homers, seven walks and 14 strikeouts.

Final Thoughts

After a disheartening loss Sunday night, the Mets need the absolute best from Sean Manaea on Monday. He’ll be facing one of the best offenses in the league. However, he’s proven ready for a challenge, coming up big for the Mets against the Brewers and Phillies and turning things up in the second half of the season. Watch for his command – this is a Dodger lineup that takes their pitches and will walk (as seen from Sunday). If he can execute his pitches and stay in the zone, he should find success.

Meanwhile, the Mets’ offense is up for their challenge against a Dodgers bullpen who have not allowed a run since Game 2 of the NLDS on October 6. Running up pitch counts, a notable strength of the Mets, would also be wise, as it is a seven-game series compared to five. The Dodgers won’t be able to have the exact strategy with their bullpen they did with San Diego, as pitching will be thinner for them in seven days, especially if the series bleeds into the later days. Even with off days, a taxed and tired bullpen down the road can be what the Mets need to punch their ticket to their first World Series since 2015.

A win in Game 2 before returning to Citi Field on Tuesday for Game 3 would be crucial. Even the series and take it from there.

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