Forget the polls: Cultural signs point toward a Harris victory

Between now and Election Day, the voters will be inundated with polls attempting to forecast the election outcome. That answer intrigues all of us. 

As Alexander Hamilton once said, “Every vital question of state will be merged in the question, ‘Who will be the next president?’” 

But relying on the polls as accurate barometers of public opinion has been questioned ever since Donald Trump emerged as a political force. In 2016, the polls wildly missed the mark, as the vast preponderance of them gave Hillary Clinton a strong lead.

Four years later, Joe Biden’s polling advantages overstated his actual results. After the 2020 election, there was talk of a “hidden Trump vote.” And in 2022, the polls missed again, pointing to a Republican red wave that failed to materialize. 

Sometimes a better predictor of our political futures is found in pop culture. 

In 1940, Woody Guthrie composed a blistering rebuttal to Irving Berlin’s classic tune, “God Bless America.” In “This Land Is Your Land,” Guthrie sang of the dispossessed and the need for equity, powerful reminders of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s continued appeal. That year, Roosevelt won a comfortable victory.  

In 1984, Ronald Reagan coasted to a landslide victory. While the polls projected a comfortable Reagan win, the signs were already present in the zeitgeist. Two of the most popular television shows that year were "Family Ties” and “The Cosby Show.” Family Ties saw Michael J. Fox play Alex P. Keaton who, as the ardent Reaganite, castigated government and praised free markets, to the annoyance of his 1960s-style Democratic parents. 

The Cosby Show depicted Bill Cosby as the amiable Dr. Cliff Huxtable, was married to a successful African American woman and whose children respected their parents. The show echoed Reagan’s values mantra of family, work, neighborhood, peace and freedom — a point echoed by Cosby himself: “This is an American family — and if you want to live like they do, and you’re willing to work, the opportunity is there.” 

Today, the cultural signs point in Vice President Kamala Harris’s direction. Over the summer, Charli XCX tweeted, “kamala IS brat.” That message played on the title of her album “Brat” which became a top seller.

Next, the most popular and powerful musician of this era, Taylor Swift, quickly followed up with a Harris endorsement. Swift’s support packed a punch: More than 400,000 people registered to vote after her announcement. An angry Trump immediately posted, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT!”

Another powerful voice, Bruce Springsteen, has also recently announced his support for Harris. 

Throughout his career, Springsteen has consistently reflected the popular mood. When he emerged as a superstar in 1984 with his hit album, “Born in the USA,” one fan said he liked Springsteen’s message about “faith and traditional values.” 

The flag-waving at Springsteen’s concerts whenever he sang “Born in the USA” led Ronald Reagan to praise the singer’s message. In 1984, The Christian Science Monitor noted that Reagan’s allusion to Springsteen marked the first time a popular singer had been recruited by a president of the U.S. as a character reference. 

Perhaps there is no better sign of an important trend in pop culture than the success of the Apple+TV series “Ted Lasso.” Lasso became the embodiment of kindness and decency, qualities opposite those associated with Trump. 

Jason Sudeikis, the actor who played Lasso, saw the series’ success as a call for change: “I hated how people weren’t listening to one another. Things became very binary, and I don’t think that’s the way the world works.” 

His character echoed a similar sentiment saying he wanted to “be the change you want to see in the world.” 

Kamala Harris’s pledge to “turn the page” and point “a new way forward” echoes the Lasso theme. Like Ted Lasso, Kamala Harris wants to end the anger and bring not just decorum, but joy, to our politics. 

Sudeikis apparently agrees: This weekend, he was spotted at a WNBA playoff game wearing a shirt with the slogan, “Harris & Walz & Joy & Liberty.” This is a message that resonates.

Meanwhile, Trump is summoning the cultural icons of yesteryear, reveling in the endorsements of Kid Rock, Hulk Hogan and Kanye West. Trump has also promoted World Wrestling Entertainment, whose audience consists of mostly young adult males but has little crossover appeal.

Can Harris pass the Ted Lasso test? While Lasso brought a different aura to the British sport of soccer with his kindness and empathy, that would have vanished, had his team not been successful. 

The question for voters is similar: They like Harris’s message, but is she up to the job of being president?  

Polls indicate that Harris crossed that threshold beginning with her powerful debate performance. By a nearly 2-to-1 ratio, debate watchers scored Harris the winner.  

The Harris-Trump debate posed a test that each successful presidential candidate must meet: Can the viewer envision this person as a potential president of the United States? 

A recent CNN poll found majorities of likely voters say Harris’s temperament, background, life experience, ability to understand their problems, skills as a leader and vision for the country align with their image of a future president. Fewer than half ascribe those same qualities to Trump.  

Over the next few weeks, voters will see Kamala Harris in different settings, each giving her the ability to introduce herself to an electorate that is exhausted by Trump. And every day more polls will claim to predict a winner.  

But forget the polls. The cultural signs point toward Harris. 

John Kenneth White (johnkennethwhite.com) is a professor emeritus at The Catholic University of America. His latest book is titled “Grand Old Unraveling: The Republican Party, Donald Trump, and the Rise of Authoritarianism.”