Pakistan: Balochistan Boiling – Analysis
By Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
As Pakistan gears up for the forthcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit scheduled for October 15 and 16 in Islamabad, in which nine full members, including China, India, Iran and Russia, are participating, stepped up insurgent violence in Balochistan has become a serious headache for the Pakistani establishment. In particular, Baloch attacks on Chinese engineers in Karachi have pushed the Government into a corner, with Beijing long pressuring Islamabad on its failure to protect Chinese projects and personnel under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
On October 11, 2024, nine soldiers were killed and another 11 sustained injuries when the Baloch Republican Army (BRA) targeted a military convoy with a remote-controlled bomb, followed by an assault with rockets and automatic weapons, in the Sughari area of Dera Bugti District in Balochistan. BRA claimed responsibility for the attack, accusing the military of shelling civilian areas in Dera Bugti’s Lanju, Sughari, and Raees Tokh regions in the preceding days. The group said its attacks were in retaliation for these military operations and warned of continued resistance.
On October 11, 2024, at least 20 coalminers and a civil armed guard were killed and seven others were injured when unidentified armed men attacked the Junaid Coal Company coal mines in the Duki District of Balochistan in the early morning. Police disclosed that the victims hailed from various regions, including Pishin, Qilla Saifullah, Zhob, Muslim Bagh, Musa Khel, Quetta, and Afghanistan. Duki District Council Chairman Khairullah Nasir, who owns the coalmine, confirmed the incident, stating that the miscreants used “hand grenades, rocket launchers and other modern weapons” in the attack. He added that the attackers also set fire to “10 coal engines and machinery”. Though no group has so far claimed responsibility for the attack, Balochistan has witnessed several attacks against labourers, primarily people from the Punjab.
On October 10, 2024, four soldiers were killed and another two sustained injuries when Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) cadres ambushed a Security Forces (SFs) unit in the Gomazi area of Tump town in the Kech District of Balochistan. BLF claimed responsibility for the attack. BLF ‘spokesperson’ Major Gwahram Baloch, stated that BLF cadres ambushed SFs as they were returning from a military operation in Tump’s mountainous regions.
On October 6, 2024, three Chinese engineers were killed while another 13 persons, including seven SF personnel sustained injuries, when the suicide squad of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Majeed Brigade, orchestrated a vehicle-borne suicide attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers on a road near the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh. The explosion damaged 12 vehicles, three of which were completely destroyed. The Chinese Embassy in Pakistan confirmed that two of its citizens were killed in the attack and another injured, amidst local casualties, who were working at the Port Qasim Electric Power Company (Private) Limited. BLA claimed responsibility for the attack, stating it was a suicide bombing carried out using a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). BLA published the picture of the suicide bomber and identified him as Shah FahadakaAftab. In the evening of October 7, BLA’s Jeeyand Baloch provided details of the Karachi Airport suicide attack in a comprehensive statement, claiming that the attack, conducted by the Majeed Brigade and the group’s intelligence unit ZIRAB (Zephyr Intelligence Research & Analysis Bureau), killed over five Chinese engineers and investors and injured more than twelve others. According to the BLA, at least 15 Pakistani military personnel, including four high-ranking officers, tasked with providing security for the convoy, were also killed in the attack. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch characterized the Karachi suicide bombing as a response to the “occupation, oppression, and exploitation” of Balochistan by both Pakistan and China. BLA framed the attack as a declaration that the Baloch people are resisting foreign control over their land and resources. The statement added, “No matter how powerful the enemy is, we will no longer tolerate the oppression, exploitation, and occupation of our land”.
The BLA reiterated that it had previously issued a 90-day ultimatum to China, demanding that it terminate its “illegal alliance” with Pakistan and withdraw all investments, projects, and military presence from Balochistan.
With the SCO summit due, 55 fatalities were reported in Balochistan during the last 13 days of October, including 27 civilians, 20 SF personnel and eight terrorists. The first 10 months and 13 days of the current year have already crossed the annual fatalities of the previous year. According to partial data compiled by theSouth Asia Terrorism Portal(SATP), Balochistan has recorded a total 529 terrorism-related fatalities, including 236 civilians, 161 SF personnel and 132 terrorists, in the current year (data till October 13, 2024). During the corresponding period of 2023, the province had recorded 378 such fatalities, including 132 civilians, 157 SF personnel and 89 terrorists. The whole of 2023 recorded 471 such fatalities, including 160 civilians, 186 SF personnel and 125 terrorists.
With 529 fatalities so far, by the end of the year, 2024 is likely to cross the highest fatalities during the last eight years, since 2016 with 636 fatalities. There were 471 fatalities in 2023, 406 in 2022, 308 in 2021, 215 in 2020, 180 in 2019, 384 in 2018, 341 in 2017 and 636 in 2016.
The long-term state policy of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings has led to a spiral of retaliatory attacks and violence by Baloch insurgents, targeting SFs and state establishments in the province. Civilians, especially members of state-backed ‘death squads’ have also been targeted. In this environment of chaos, Islamist terrorist groups have also thrived and, in some cases, even joined the Baloch groups. The major active Baloch insurgent groups include the Baloch National Army (BNA), BLA, BLF, Balochistan Liberation Tigers (BLT) and United Baloch Army (UBA).
The growing number of attacks by the insurgent groups are substantially a retaliation to state excesses, including enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings of Baloch people by SFs and their proxies. Victims of enforced disappearances include political workers, journalists, human rights defenders, and students. According to the Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) report of December 2023, more than 7,000 persons have gone ‘missing’ from Balochistan since 2000. However, the Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances formed in 2011 with the objective of tracing the missing persons and fixing responsibility on the individuals or organisations responsible for it, posted data on its website claiming that there were just 454 ‘active cases’ of enforced disappearances from Balochistan, as of October 2023.
The largest act of retribution by Baloch insurgent groups in a single day in many years, was on August 26, 2024, when BLA cadres offloaded passengers from trucks and buses in the Rarasham area of Musakhail District in the early morning and shot at them after checking their identities. At least 23 Punjabi travellers were killed. The armed men also set fire to 10 vehicles. “Vehicles travelling to and from Punjab were inspected, and individuals from Punjab were identified and shot,” Musakhail Assistant Commissioner Najeeb Kakar disclosed. As the day progressed, Balochistan recorded multiple attacks by Baloch insurgents across the province, which left at least 38 people dead, including the 23 in Musakhail.
In response, Security Forces (SFs) neutralised 21 terrorists and injured several others. BLA cadres then targeted Levies Forces and Police Stations in Mastung, Kalat, Pasni, and Suntsar, resulting in numerous casualties. Explosions and grenade attacks were reported in Sibi, Panjgur, Mastung, Turbat, Bela, and Quetta, with militants blowing up a railway track near Mastung. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement later in the day, claiming that 21 terrorists had been killed, while 14 SF personnel, including four from law enforcement agencies, were killed during ‘clearance operations’.
However, in a statement released on its official media,Hakkal, BLA announced the successful completion of its Fidayeen OperationHerof(Operation Dark Storm), claiming to have killed 130 military personnel during a series of coordinated attacks across Balochistan. BLA ‘spokesperson’ Jeeyand Baloch claimed that the group’s elitefidayeenunit, the Majeed Brigade, had “maintained control over the Bela camp for 20 hours,” during which “68 military personnel were killed and dozens more injured.”
Baloch anger against the State has been further aggravated by the systematic exploitation of Balochistan’s natural resources through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. This has resulted in periodic attacks on Chinese nationals. Since, the inception of CPEC-related projects in 2013, BLA and other Baloch groups have been increasingly targeting Chinese nationals and projects, as they believe that China, in connivance with Islamabad, is exploiting the resources of the province, while denying any benefits to the Baloch people. They believe, further, that CPEC is part of a 'strategic design' by China to loot resources and eliminate Pakistani, particularly Baloch, culture and identity.
The USD 65 billion CPEC is a massive series of projects that includes a network of highways, railways and energy infrastructure, spanning the entire country. CPEC is a flagship project in China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
According to a Federal Interior Ministry report of May 16, 2024, 62 people working on CPEC have been killed in eight attacks across Pakistan between 2020 and 2024. Two attacks on Chinese engineers working on CPEC projects took place in Balochistan, four in Sindh and two in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Notably, BLA’s Majeed Brigade, has been behind most of the high-profile attacks on Chinese citizens working on the CPEC project.
Contrary to the Government’s official data, the number of deaths and attacks is significantly higher. According to partial data compiled from open-source reports bySATP, since July 19, 2007, at least 17 attacks directly targeting Chinese nationals have been recorded in Pakistan (12 in Balochistan, three in Sindh and two in KP), resulting in 87 deaths (data till October 13, 2024). The dead included 19 Chinese nationals, 13 Pakistani SF personnel, 42 Pakistani civilians and 13 attackers. Another, 66 persons, including six Chinese nationals, were injured in these attacks. Out of two attacks reported in KP, one attack was claimed by TTP. One attack on a Chinese national in Karachi involved the Sindhi nationalist group, the Sindh Revolutionary Army (SRA).
Blinded by Chinese money and support, instead of addressing Baloch grievances, the adamant State establishment has exclusively chosen military repression as a response to the problem. On August 22, 2024, the Government approved PKR 60 billion to carry outOperation Azm-e-Istehkam(Commitment for stability) to fight militancy in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. On June 22, the Central Apex Committee on the National Action Plan (NAP), chaired by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, launchedOperation Azm-e-Istehkam. In response, the BLA-led Baloch Raj Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), an umbrella organization of Baloch ‘pro-independence’ groups, issued a statement on July 8, 2024, against Pakistan’s military campaign. In a media release, BRAS ‘spokesperson’ Baloch Khan condemned the operation as a blatant intensification of the ongoing ‘genocide’ against the Baloch people. He asserted that BRAS and its allied organizations were prepared to defend their land and people against any form of military action, promising to defeat the ‘invading’ forces.
Aimed at enhancing their capacity to secure Chinese commercial interests within Pakistan and bolster border security, the Government of Pakistan, on October 3, 2024, approved an additional budget of PKR 45 billion for the Armed Forces. The decision was made during a meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, chaired by Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb. According to the meeting details, PKR 35.4 billion will be allocated to the Army, while PKR 9.5 billion will go to the Navy. The ECC also approved an additional PKR 16 billion for the Special Security Division South, which is responsible for safeguarding CPEC.
While the Pakistani State has been planning to safe guard Chinese interest, the Baloch insurgents have succeeded in targeting Chinese personnel and infrastructure. After the recent attack on Chinese engineers on October 6 in Karachi, the BLA released a video message of Fidayeen (self-sacrificer) Shah Fahad Badini on October 10, who wass responsible for the attack. In an eight-minute video published by the BLA's media wing, Hakkal, Shah Fahad is seen inside a vehicle, delivering what he describes as his final message. He begins by invoking a historical phrase often associated with resistance movements: "When oppression becomes law, resistance becomes a duty." Addressing the people of China directly, Shah Fahad warns them of the Baloch people's opposition to what he calls China's illegal exploitation of Balochistan's resources.
He declared, "For years, you have turned a blind eye to the truth. You have tried to extract wealth from a land over which you have no moral or legal authority, and it is not your land. Your hands are not clean. By backing Pakistan's genocide of the Baloch, you have sided with oppression. We demand that you immediately cease all exploitative projects on our land, including the illegal and destructive Gwadar port project. No amount of profit, nor the depth of the sea, will keep your investments safe from the rightful struggle of the Baloch nation. BLA is prepared to strike Chinese interests anytime and anywhere. "
In the wake of each attack on Chinese nationals and projects, the Chinese Government has sought to pressurise Pakistan for the deployment of Chinese security personnel to operate inside Pakistan, to protect its interests, an option that Islamabad continues to resist, so far. This time around, the loss of confidence on Pakistani security measures is palpable, and Beijing has sent a task force to examine the threat and response, even as it has urged the authorities to step up security measures and ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and projects. The task force arrived in Islamabad on October 8 and met the heads of Pakistan's Foreign and Interior Ministries, as well as of the Police, Armed Forces and Intelligence Services.
The growing attacks on SFs in Balochistan and the latest attack on Chinese engineers, against the backdrop of the SCO summit in Islamabad, is likely to have a twofold impact, creating fear psychosis around the Chinese involvement in natural resource projects in Balochistan, even as it impacts Pakistan's fragile economy where it hurts most.
- Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management