Middle East aviation: capacity cuts in Israel, also Lebanon, Jordan and Iran

A year on from the 7-Oct-2023 Hamas attacks on Israel, the widening of the conflict sparked by that event has had a significant negative impact on aviation markets in the region.

Israel outpaced the Middle East's capacity recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic until 12 months ago. Since then, it has fallen well behind, and it is scheduled to be at only 63% of 2019 capacity in 2024.

However, while foreign airlines have cut capacity on international routes to/from Israel, El Al is projected to operate 104% of its 2019 seat numbers in 2024.

The spread of armed conflict in the region has also resulted in depressed aviation capacity in other countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, Iran and others.

A raft of international airlines have announced further suspensions of services to all of these nations, in many cases until later in Oct-2024. However, with considerable uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical course of events, route suspensions could continue for much longer.