PM Modi’s Participation In ASEAN-India And East Asia Summit – Analysis
The 10 member states of ASEAN — Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Brunei and Laos — held talks with their dialogue partners from elsewhere in the region including Japan, South Korea, China, India and Australia in the Laos’ capital of Vientiane on 10-11 October to discuss on a host of topics ranging from the economy, to climate change and energy. The summit also discussed how to tackle the prolonged civil war in Myanmar and territorial tensions in the South China Sea.
The ASEAN summit was followed by meetings with global powers including China, the United States and Russia, all of which are contending for influence in the region. The summit talks also touched upon on the escalation of violence in the Middle East, although the ASEAN region has faced only indirect fallout.
ASEAN’s influence has historically been limited even among its own members, but the forum has often served as a platform for dialogues among superpowers looking to engage with the region.
This year’s summit was the first for several new national leaders. Thailand’s Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who took the premiership in August, emerged the bloc’s youngest leader at 38. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong represented the country after he took over from Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down in May after 20 years. Vietnam also has a new leader after President To Lam took office in August, but the country was represented by its prime minister Pham Minh Chinh. President Joko Widodo of Indonesia, ASEAN’s biggest member, skipped the forum as his successor Prabowo Subianto prepares to take office later this month. The Vice President Ma’ruf Amin was sent instead. It was the first overseas trip for Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who succeeded Fumio Kishida only last month.
The Myanmar Issue
The ASEAN grouping has failed to successfully deal with the Myanmar issue and find a solution. Though as per the ASEAN Charter, no member country can interfere in the internal affairs of another member nation, the Myanmar issue has substantially dented the grouping’s image. The leaders of other member nations of the grouping mentioned the Myanmar crisis as an “extremely important issue”.
The violence and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar has rapidly worsened since the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021 and suppressed widespread nonviolent protests that sought a return to democratic rule. Myanmar’s junta has agreed to an ASEAN peace plan that calls for ceasefire and mediation but has continuedbattling pro-democracy guerrillas and ethnic rebelsin a war that has killed close to 6,000 people. Myanmar sent Foreign Ministry permanent secretary Aung Kyaw Moe to the summit, its first high-level representative at the summit in three years, after ASEAN barred it from sending political representatives in late 2021.
However, allowing a senior diplomat from Myanmar to join the meetings was perceived as ASEAN was compromising, confirming the concern that ASEAN was experiencing fatigue in dealing with the crisis. This was seen as the chances for any significant breakthrough on the crisis remain slim.
South China Sea Issue
Much discussion took place on the maritime territorial disputes between ASEAN member states and China in the South China Sea, one of the world’s most crucial waterways for trade. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei all have overlapping claims with China, which claims sovereigntyover virtually all of the South China Seaand has become increasingly aggressive in attempts to enforce them. Indonesia has also expressed concern about what it sees as Beijing’s encroachment on its exclusive economic zone.
Tensions between the Philippines and China have escalated this year, with Chinese forcesusing powerful water cannons and dangerous blockingmanoeuvres to prevent food and other supplies from reaching Filipino navy personnel involved with staking a claim on a tiny atoll. Both sides entered into a deal in July to end confrontations but tensions flared again in August after vessels from the two counties collided, with each side accusing each other of deliberately causing the collision. The Philippines, a long-time U.S. ally, has been critical of other ASEAN countries for not doing more to get China to back away from its increasingly assertive approach.
Even Vietnam has a history of skirmishes with Chinese vessels and water cannon wars when China attempted to enter Vietnam’s EEZ .Vietnam charged that Chinese forces assaulted 10 of its fishermen with iron bars, damaged their gear and stole their catch off the disputed Paracel Islands, and calling it a serious violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty. Though members discussed the issue at the forum, there is little chance of clear outcomes as those who are not in direct conflict with China often prioritize ties with Beijing. The bottom line is the preference for conflict avoidance while getting geostrategic benefits where possible. In reality, national interests matter more than regional interests.
Participation of PM Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi on a two-day official visit attended the 21st annual ASEAN-India and 19th East Asia Summit at the invitation of Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone of Laos, the current Chair of the ASEAN who hosted the event.
During his visit, PM Modi assessed the progress of India’s relations with the ASEAN nations. This was indeed a special year as India marked a decade of its Act East Policy, which has gained momentum and accrued substantial benefits to India. Besides attending the summit meetings, PM Modi had various bilateral meetings and interactions with various world leaders during the visit. These bilateral meetings will chart the future course of the India-ASEAN relationship.
The purpose of the ASEAN-India Summit is to review the progress of India-ASEAN relations through a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. It also aims to chart the future direction of cooperation. Indeed, India attaches great significance to all ASEAN-related mechanisms. This was PM Modi’s tenth attendance at the ASEAN-India Summit. During the meeting, PM Modi and the leaders of the ASEAN grouping reviewed the relations and charted out the future direction of the relationship. India has reason to emphasise the importance of connectivity and resilience as connectivity is a very important pillar of India’s engagement with ASEAN. This is because India is keen to leverage with the diaspora in ASEAN countries which constitute as much as 20 per cent of the Indian diaspora worldwide.
India currently has direct flights with seven ASEAN countries and strives to achieve direct flight connectivity with two more ASEAN countries by the end of 2024. The ASEAN countries are among India's top trade and investment partners.
As regards the East Asia Summit (EAS), India also plays a major role as influencer on regional issues for the common good. The EAS that encompasses 10 ASEAN countries and eight partners – Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the United States – strives to promote peace, stability and prosperity in the region. The East Asia Summit serves as an opportunity for the leaders of the participating countries to exchange views relating to issues of regional importance. Striving to create an environment of strategic trust in the region, the East Asia Summit is a premier leaders-led forum.
PM Modi’s visit highlighted how the ASEAN member countries are a counterpart of India’s Act East Policy. It underscored New Delhi’s cooperation with allies and partners with a common vision of the Indo-Pacific region. India has prioritised east and Southeast Asia with its vision for an initiative called SAGAR - Security And Growth for All in the Region. The ASEAN-India summit reviewed progress of India-ASEAN relations through India’s Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and charted out the future direction of cooperation. Similarly, the EAS is a premier leaders-led forum that contributes to building an environment of strategic trust in the region, and provides an opportunity for leaders of EAS participating countries, including India, to exchange views on issues of regional importance.
Two significant milestones are noteworthy in 2024. This year marked a decade of India’s Act East Policy. During this decade, the engagements grew from stronger people-to-people connections to robust cooperation in trade and investment, defence and security, and connectivity including fin-tech, heritage conservation and capacity-building. The year 2024 also marked important anniversaries of the establishment of India’s diplomatic relations with several countries in the region – 75th with Indonesia, 75th with the Philippines, 60th with Singapore and 40th with Brunei.
Emphasising the transformative impact of India’s Act East Policy on relationship with the Southeast Asian nations during the past decade, PM Modi declared that the 21st century is the Asian Century for India and the ASEAN grouping.
PM Modi emphasised the importance of educational collaborations and shared that over 300 ASEAN students have received scholarships at Nalanda University. A network of universities has been established to facilitate academic exchanges. He also noted the importance of humanitarian cooperation during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters. Among other areas, PM Modi talked about science and technology funds, digital funds, and green funds that have been set up for cooperation in various fields, with India contributing over $30 million. Direct flight connectivity now exists between India and seven ASEAN countries, with flights from Brunei starting soon.
India and the ASEAN are neighbours, fellow members of the Global South, and the fastest-growing region of the world, besides peace-loving countries, respect each other's national integrity and sovereignty, and are committed to a bright future for the youth. He highlighted the importance of India-ASEAN friendship amidst global tensions. He stressed that “when there is conflict in many parts of the world, our dialogue and cooperation remain crucial."
During the India-ASEAN summit, PM Modi unveiled a 10-point plan designed to bolster connectivity and resilience, aligned with Laos’ theme as the 2024 ASEAN Chair and marking a decade of Act East Policy. The contour to strengthen India-ASEAN ties entailed enhancing physical, digital, cultural, and spiritual connectivity while addressing cyber, disaster, supply chain, health, and climate resilience.
Key components of the 10-point plan include:
- Celebrating 2025 as the 'ASEAN-India Year of Tourism,' with India contributing $5 million for joint activities.
- Marking the tenth anniversary of the 'Act East' policy through various initiatives such as a youth summit, start-up festival, hackathon, and a music festival.
- Organizing an ASEAN-India Women Scientists Conclave under the ASEAN-India Science and Technology Development Fund.
- Doubling scholarships at Nalanda University and providing new scholarships for ASEAN students at agricultural universities in India.
- Reviewing the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement by 2025.
- Initiating a new Health Ministers' track to enhance health resilience, alongside a regular mechanism for ASEAN-India Cyber Policy Dialogue.
- Hosting workshops on green hydrogen and inviting ASEAN leaders to participate in the 'Plant a Tree for Mother' campaign.
To solidify these commitments, the leaders of ASEAN and India adopted the 'Joint Statement on Strengthening ASEAN-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Peace, Stability and Prosperity in the Region.' They also endorsed the 'ASEAN-India Joint Statement on Advancing Digital Transformation,' recognizing technology’s role in bridging the digital divide and fostering inclusive development.
Other Highlights
Vietnam as an important partner country of India in the ASEAN bloc called on India to continue cooperation and assistance for effective implementation of the Mekong-Ganga cooperation framework, contributing to fostering inclusive, even and sustainable development across the region. Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh at the 27th ASEAN Plus Three (APT) Summit called upon ASEAN and the three partners to (i) guarantee the connectivity of supply chains, (ii) boost new growth drivers like innovation, digital transformation, green transition, circular economy, sharing economy, and emerging sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor, cloud computing, and internet of things; and (iii) reinforce resilience against natural disasters and climate change.
During discussion, India and ASEAN reaffirmed the importance of maintaining maritime safety and security. The summit took place at a time when Exercise Malabar 24 involving the navies of India, the US, Japan and Australia (Quad) was underway in Vishakhapatnam. The exercise has its own strategic significance and implications for the Indo-Pacific region. It aims to secure regional stability and security and deter potential threats through enhanced interoperability.
China is aware that such talks and activities by the ASEAN and other partner countries are aimed to contain its expansionist behaviour in the South China Sea. No wonder, when the leaders of the ASEAN stepped up pressure on China to respect international law following clashes in the disputed South China Sea, Chinese Prime Minister Li Quang was defiant and blamed “external forces” for interfering in the regional affairs. China contends that the South China Sea is “a shared home” and that China has an obligation to protect its sovereignty.
PM Modi also had several bilateral with leaders of other countries on the margins of the summit with a focus on enhancing cooperation across sectors. He met his counterparts from Japan and New Zealand. During his meeting with New Zealand’s Christopher Luxon, PM Modi discussed cooperation in tourism, education and innovation. Both leaders reinforced their commitment to democracy, freedom and rule of law.
PM Modi also had fruitful discussion with the newly appointed Japanese counterpart Shigeru Ishiba. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitments to further strengthening India-Japan Special Strategic and Global Partnership through enhanced cooperation in a wide range of areas including trade and investment, infrastructure development, defence and security, semiconductors, skilling, culture, and people-to-people exchanges. PM Modi expressed a desire to advance cooperation in defence, security and economic sectors. Both leaders agreed that India and Japan are “natural partners” sharing fundamental values such as democracy and pledged to collaborate towards peace and stability in the international community.
Soon after assuming the office of Prime Minister, Ishiba had made a controversial statement of creating an “Asian NATO”. However, realising that his idea of establishing an Asian version of Asian NATO received lukewarm response, Ishiba decided not to bring up the idea during his summit visit. Since China too figured in the ASEAN Plus Three (Japan, China and South Korea), China would have reacted strongly had Ishiba floated the Asian NATO concept during the summit. Instead, he focused on strengthening trust between Japan and ASEAN. Given the ASEAN bloc highly value their relationship with China, and India already expressed its view against the idea, Ishiba would have found himself in a difficult situation. So, he avoided mentioning the idea.
Overall, it transpires that PM Modi played a highly successful diplomatic role in engaging his counterparts at the sidelines, thereby solidifying bilateral relations, and engaging with the ASEAN bloc leaders to advance regional interests of all and factoring India’s role in contributing to regional peace and stability. A cooperative approach to deal with regional issues such as maritime security, safety, protecting and respecting global laws and work for a rules-based global order was PM Modi’s pitch at the summit. This also elevates India’s standing in the global platform. This was long overdue and PM Modi has ensured that India finally has arrived at the global high table and its views resonate in many capitals of the world.