Pakistan’s Political Instability: A Threat To The SCO Summit? – OpEd

The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit is slated to happen on October 15 and 16, 2024, in Islamabad, Pakistan – while an important event for regional cooperation and diplomacy, is not without significant challenges.

Despite China’s strong position within the SCO, the summit faces considerable hurdles, largely stemming from Pakistan’s current domestic instability and deteriorating security environment. The political unrest in Pakistan, coupled with heightened security threats, casts a shadow over the proceedings, raising questions about the future of both regional cooperation under the SCO framework and Pakistan’s ability to host such a high-profile event amidst internal turmoil.

At the heart of Pakistan’s challenges is the intense political turbulence that has gripped the nation. Pakistan has been engulfed in a fierce political battle between the sitting government and opposition forces, primarily supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan’s removal from office has led to widespread protests and civil unrest, with his followers demanding his reinstatement or, at the very least, fresh elections. The protests have frequently devolved into clashes with security forces, further destabilizing the country and creating an environment of uncertainty and chaos. This domestic instability risks overshadowing the SCO summit, a gathering meant to focus on regional security and economic cooperation.

The political unrest in Pakistan is not just a matter of domestic concern but has significant implications for the international community, particularly in the context of the SCO summit. As a host nation, Pakistan is expected to provide a secure and stable environment for the summit, which will bring together leaders and representatives from across the region. However, the ongoing political instability raises serious doubts about Pakistan’s ability to ensure the smooth running of the event. The government’s focus is split between managing the country’s internal turmoil and preparing for the summit, and the risk of disruptions during the event is high.

Security concerns surrounding the summit have only been heightened following a recent suicide bombing in Karachi, which targeted a convoy of foreign delegates and resulted in the deaths of Chinese nationals. This attack has sent shockwaves through both Pakistan and the international community, particularly China, whose nationals and investments in Pakistan have been frequent targets of terrorist attacks. The bombing underscores the persistent threat of terrorism in Pakistan and raises serious concerns about the safety of international leaders attending the summit. The incident in Karachi is a stark reminder that despite Pakistan’s efforts to improve its security situation, significant threats remain, especially from militant groups that continue to operate within its borders.

For China, the security of its nationals and investments in Pakistan is a top priority, particularly given the scale of Chinese involvement in the country. This heavy Chinese presence in Pakistan has made Chinese nationals and projects prime targets for militant groups. The attack in Karachi is just the latest in a series of incidents that have highlighted the vulnerability of Chinese interests in Pakistan, and Beijing is likely to push for enhanced security measures and greater counterterrorism cooperation during the SCO summit.

China’s concern over the security of its nationals and investments in Pakistan is not just about protecting its economic interests, but also about maintaining its influence in the region. Any deterioration in Pakistan’s security situation threatens to undermine China’s broader strategic goals in the region. Beijing will likely use the SCO summit as an opportunity to press Pakistan for stronger security guarantees and to push for greater cooperation on counterterrorism efforts within the SCO framework.

Pakistan’s ability to address China’s concerns, however, is hampered by its own internal challenges. The country’s security forces are already stretched thin, dealing with the twin challenges of domestic political unrest and the ongoing threat of terrorism. The recent upsurge in attacks by militant groups has further strained Pakistan’s security apparatus, making it difficult for the government to provide the level of security that China is likely to demand. Similarly, the political instability in Pakistan has weakened the government’s ability to take decisive action on security issues, as it is preoccupied with managing the fallout from the ongoing political crisis.

The tensions surrounding the upcoming SCO summit in Islamabad highlight the difficult balancing act that Pakistan faces. On the one hand, the summit is an opportunity for Pakistan to showcase its role as a key player in regional diplomacy and security. Hosting the summit gives Pakistan a chance to strengthen its ties with major powers, and to position itself as a leader in regional security cooperation. On the other hand, the country’s domestic instability and security challenges threaten to derail the event and undermine Pakistan’s standing. Have not the political unrest and recent terrorist attacks exposed the fragility of Pakistan’s internal situation and raised serious questions about its ability to host such a high-profile event successfully?