Thad's Three Things: Bills at Jets

Three items that have my attention as the Bills get ready for a sneaky big division battle on Monday night...

Stay Grounded

This game is going to be about run and stop the run. The Jets pass defense is, once again, really damn good. They are second in passing yards allowed, passing TDs allowed and yards per attempt allowed. It doesn't matter the receiver Buffalo wants to roll out (even if Khalil Shakir answers the bell), the Jets have a huge advantage with Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed at corner (the latter is actually having the better season so far).

It would certainly be better if James Cook can play Monday night, but the Bills run game success is not dependent on Cook. He provides a home run hitting ceiling that Ty Johnson and Ray Davis can't match, but the depth RBs have shown capable in limited opportunities. Johnson is already the two minute running back and has as many receiving TDs as Cook this year. Regardless the personnel available, the Bills can and must succeed on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, the Jets have 100 yards rushing combined the last two games. Unsurprisingly, they only have two touchdowns total in those games. Aaron Rodgers can still sling it, but this team wants Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen to carry the offense. Stop the run goes a long way towards stopping the Jets.

DeWayne DeAnswer

DeWayne Carter has flashed the last couple weeks, especially against the run. He has six tackles in the last two games, including three for a loss. The rookie does a nice job getting off of blocks with his athleticism and for a mild-mannered guy off the field, Carter also brings a good amount of energy.

Depth at defensive tackle was a question mark for the Bills entering the season. Injuries to Ed Oliver and Austin Johnson have been further depleting. Carter is looking like an answer and he's stepping up at the perfect time. The Jets would love nothing better than to run their offense right through Carter in the middle of the defensive line. He'll be tested again Monday night.

Mystery Men

Not only are the Jets changing at head coach this week, they are also changing offensive play-callers. Former Bills coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is being demoted in favor of passing game coordinator Todd Downing, who ran the offensive show in Tennessee for 2021 and 2022.

Like Sean McDermott, Robert Saleh landed the Jets head coaching job via his good work as a defensive coordinator. Even if he had the number one title with the Jets, it was still his defense. That means New York is changing out the leadership on both sides of the ball midseason. It might be unprecedented.

It might also be a problem for the Bills. The Jets are attempting a ridiculous amount of change in one week, but they will at least have all week to practice anything new they want to try. The Bills won't see any of it until Monday night. In a rivalry that has often been tight and low scoring lately, any edge could easily make the difference.

Betting Things

Fool me once, shame on the Bills. Fool me twice, shame on me. I lost on a passing over for the second consecutive week when Josh Allen completed only nine passes, preventing Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid from even sniffing their overs. I'm now 3-2 for the year, but still in the black 0.8 units.

It's going to make this week's play pretty easy. We'll take the under on Allen passing yards. The Jets have not allowed a quarterback to throw for even 200 yards since week one. They've even held two QBs under 100 yards (granted, Bo Nix in the rain and Jacoby Brissett are not exactly passing juggernauts). Allen hasn't topped 200 yards himself in three of the last four.

The lines are a bit all over with Allen's passing total, perhaps in part because of the uncertainty around Shakir's status. I was able to take under 207.5 yards at MGM for -115. Is this a bit emotional coming off the last two losses? Yes. Am I tilting a bit? Perhaps. This is still the logical play based on the matchup. (Also pretty logical: Breece Hall overs. MGM has his line at 50.5. Most other books are in the low 50's.)

The Pick

No matter who the Jets coach was going to be, the better coaching staff Monday night was always going to be the guys in blue and red. Buffalo is top five this year for least penalties and penalty yards. They are tied for the least turnovers so far with only two through five games. Even with a variety of new players and new leadership, Sean McDermott's squad remains one of the league's more disciplined groups. A stark contrast to a Jets team that not only has committed the 8th most penalties, the head coach and quarterback couldn't even agree what the problem was two weeks ago.

The Bills, by the way, also have the better quarterback. Due respect to Rodgers, who has a gold jacket already tailored for him after retirement, but Allen has been superior in every statistical category so far this season. Despite some heavy flirting the last couple weeks, Allen also remains the only NFL starting QB without an interception this season.

However, the Jets have shown the last couple years they can overcome those two disadvantages. Allen's three interceptions definitely helped in Buffalo's road loss against the Jets last year, but the Bills went down at MetLife in 2022 despite a 2-1 turnover advantage. New York has elite personnel all over the field on both sides of the ball and they might be getting another one back this week with linebacker C.J. Mosley. While the Bills always seem to run over the Dolphins, the Jets are the team that causes headaches.

There's a thought that teams changing head coaches--in any sport--get a bump right away. If the fired coach was disliked, players feel free without him. If the fired coach was liked and/or respected, players feel responsible for the job being lost and motivated to fix what's wrong.

It's reflected by the numbers. Over the last five years, NFL teams that fire their coach midseason are 7-5 in the first game with the new guy. Those seven winners finished their seasons a combined 38-76-1. This Jets team is far more talented than most the franchises that felt a midseason change was necessary.

This series has featured two types of games recently: tight, low scoring rock fights or the Bills embarrassing a non-functional Jets team. It seems unlikely we get the latter. In a game where points and margin for error is at a premium, I'm going to take the team that should be getting an emotional bump. It helps that team is also at home. Give me the Jets to win an ugly one 17-16.