WTO slightly raises 2024 goods trade forecast but wary of possible setbacks

The World Trade Organisation raised its outlook for global goods trade this year slightly, but cautioned Thursday that increasing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over economy policy pose substantial risks to its forecast.

The Geneva-based WTO projected that global goods trade will increase by 2.7 per cent this year, compared with the 2.6 per cent it forecast in April. But it predicted growth of 3 per cent next year, down from the 3.3 per cent it forecast previously. Last year, the volume of world merchandise trade was down 1.1 per cent, pushed lower by high inflation and rising interest rates.

The global trade body cautioned that rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.

Still, it pointed to a 2.3 per cent year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade in this year's first six months and noted that inflation had fallen far enough by mid-year for central banks to start cutting interest