Trump’s bonkers blue state tour says a lot about his campaign

Are big, showy campaign rallies worth the time and effort for presidential candidates?

A study of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s 2016 rallies found that “Secretary Clinton’s visits in the later part of the campaign had a positive effect on her vote share in places she visited.” 

That study found no similar bump for her opponent Donald Trump. But a different study on the 2016 election found that “Trump's rallies produced a short-lived increase in his support over Clinton (especially among leaning Republicans), intention to vote (especially among strong Republicans), and individual campaign contributions for him.” 

Indeed, for an election that hinges on a few thousand votes in just six battleground states, there is real value in holding large political rallies. They generate on-the-ground enthusiasm, as well as heaps of local media coverage. 

So with less than 30 days to go before the 2024 election, why is the Republican presidential nominee spending valuable time in California, Colorado, and New York, of all places?