NFL straight-up picks, Week 6: A few predicted blowouts and the mess that will be Colts-Titans

After an … unpleasant start to 2024, our straight-up picks are beginning to fall back in line with last year’s results. A late Dallas Cowboys win and a late swap from Indianapolis Colts to the Jacksonville Jaguars, thanks to Jonathan Taylor’s lingering injury, spurred a 10-4 week and finally pushed my picks into the profitable realm above a 60 percent hit rate.

Now the trick is keeping them there.

Week 6’s slate doesn’t look too intimidating on paper. While last weekend’s games were filled with coin flips, eight of this week’s 14 games have point spreads of a field goal or higher. Let’s take a look and pick some winners.

Last week’s success looked a little like my 2023, where I ended the year as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds — in fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.

Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 6 picks:

and:

Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:

Let’s break out three games to talk about.

Easiest game to pick: Houston Texans (-7) over the New England Patriots

Why I like this pick:

Drake Maye is making his first NFL start with an offensive line that allows more pressure than any in the league. He’s facing a defense line that generates more pressure than any in the league. C.J. Stroud is still ironing out the kinks in Year 2 and could use New England as a launching pad.

Why I don’t like this pick:

New England is at home and its fans know there are gonna be few opportunities to actually cheer for something after Maye’s debut. Stroud has been slightly more turnover prone in 2024 and his top receiver left last week’s game with the kind of soft tissue hamstring injury that will keep him out at least four weeks.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 3-2 (.600)

Hardest favorite to back: Indianapolis Colts (-1) over the Tennessee Titans

Why I like this pick:

Jonathan Taylor should be back in the lineup. Anthony Richardson may be as well which, honestly, would feel like a strike against the Colts offense even if it weren’t facing a top 10 passing defense. Picking the Titans feels bad.

Why I don’t like this pick:

The Colts’ passing defense may be bad enough to make Will Levis look competent. Tennessee is coming off a bye week. Indianapolis couldn’t stop Tank Bigbsy, which creates hope Tony Pollard and Tajae Spears can do enough to carry this defense through Levis’s weekly meme-ification.

Sigh, you know what? I’ve talked myself out of it…

Hardest slight underdog I’d previously written off to back: Tennessee Titans (+1) over the Indianapolis Colts

Yeah I dunno man. Let’s keep an eye on this one, it could all come down to the availability of Taylor and Richardson. Namely, the idea Indy may be worse if its star young quarterback plays.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 3-2 (.600)

Upset pick of the week: Denver Broncos (+3) over the Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles has a great gameplanning coach and Jim Harbaugh has had an extra week to prep for the Broncos. The Chargers are the team tied for second with Denver in EPA/play allowed and rank second in defensive DVOA. Justin Herbert had an extra week to heal up his sprained ankle.

Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 2-3 (.400)