Can Nikki Haley Voters Win It for Kamala Harris?

In the grim struggle for an advantage in the closest presidential contest maybe ever, it’s clear that Kamala Harris’s campaign has decided that winning a small but crucial share of Republican voters (and GOP-leaning independents) who just don’t like Donald Trump could be the key to the kingdom. This isn’t a new strategy for Democrats, of course. Pew’s analysis of verified voters showed that one reason Joe Biden was able to defeat Trump in 2020 was that he doubled the percentage of moderate-to-liberal Republicans won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. This raid on the center of the political spectrum reflects the broader data point that Biden won self-identified independents by nine points, while Clinton lost them to Trump by one point.

Whatever else she did or did not accomplish as the last surviving challenger to Trump’s nomination in 2024, Nikki Haley demonstrated that there was a hard kernel of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents reluctant to go along with the MAGA conquest of the GOP. There weren’t enough of them to give Haley a serious chance of victory, and some of them were almost certainly Democrats (or Democratic-leaning indies) just registering opposition to the 45th president. But in a general election as close as this one, the trajectory of Haley’s small and shaky coalition is worth watching closely. Will Haley voters emulate her decision (for the fourth or fifth time) to swallow her harsh criticisms of Trump and back him anyway? Or are enough of them winnable for Harris to matter?

Blueprint has conducted a new national survey of 2024 Haley voters. Significantly, it excluded self-identified Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents, which means it is obtaining a snapshot of the views of Haley voters who aren’t already in the bag for Harris. And the survey shows some opportunities for expanding the Democratic beachhead among Republicans reluctant to go down the rabbit hole with Trump one more time.

The survey shows that 66 percent of these Haley voters report having backed Trump in 2016, a percentage that dropped to 59 percent in 2020. Right now, only 45 percent say they plan to vote for Trump in November, as opposed to 36 percent planning to vote for Harris. Thirteen percent are undecided.

These Republicans and leaners don’t really differ from their estranged MAGA cousins in how they view the issues; the economy and immigration rank high, and they actually trust Trump more than Harris in handling these concerns. It’s Trump’s character that’s the problem, as Blueprint’s analysis suggests:

More Haley voters are concerned that Trump’s character is too erratic (57% say this describes their concerns about Trump “very well”) than are concerned that his policies are too extreme (38%). 

For Harris, the problem is flipped; 50% of Haley voters are concerned that her policies are too extreme, while 38% say the same about her character being too erratic.

All things being equal, you’d guess that Haley voters could be swayed by appeals for Harris from Never Trump Republicans who claim they still hold firm conservative policy positions but simply fear the excesses and abuses another Trump presidency might bring. According to The Bulwark’s report on the poll, harvesting such voters could be crucial:

“Between 5 and 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are Nikki Haley supporters,” said Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster for Blueprint, which conducted the poll between September 28 and October 6. “If Harris can indeed win a third or more of them in the general election, it will provide a boost of a couple percentage points. In such a close race where the margin of victory will be razor-thin, particularly in the swing states, it’s clearly worth pursuing these voters.”

It’s also possible that the Trump campaign, understanding Haley’s evident hunger for future office, will deploy Haley herself on her vanquisher’s behalf. But best we can tell, Team Trump is happy to focus its efforts on convincing swing voters that Harris is both a godless radical and a status-quo standpatter while reaching out to grumpy MAGA-leaning low-propensity voters who probably dislike Haley as much as Harris.