Predicting Who the Cubs Non-Tender Entering 2025

MLB Trade Rumors released its annual arbitration salary projections for all 30 MLB teams this week and I guess as Cubs fans we can once again start thinking about the offseason a few weeks early with our team missing the postseason for a fourth straight year. Some of these decisions are pretty cut and dried, but it doesn’t mean they won’t come with some sadness. Meanwhile, a few non-tender decisions can truly be toss-ups because of injuries.

Entering the 2024-25 offseason, the Cubs will have 14 players who are arbitration eligible.

A quick reminder of what that means exactly in MLB.

Players who have three or more years of Major League service but less than six years of Major League service become eligible for salary arbitration if they do not already have a contract for the next season.

If the club and player have not agreed on a salary by a deadline (typically in mid-January), the club and player must exchange salary figures for the upcoming season. After the figures are exchanged, a hearing is scheduled (typically in February). If no one-year or multi-year settlement can be reached by the hearing date, the case is brought before a panel of arbitrators. After hearing arguments from both sides, the panel selects either the salary figure of either the player or the club (but not one in between) as the player’s salary for the upcoming season.

OK, cool. All 30 teams have a deadline sometime in November to either tender or non-tender an arbitration-eligible player. Of course, for Cubs fans, the most infamous non-tender decision in recent memory was following the 2020 season, when Kyle Schwarber was released, became a free agent and has been a home-run machine ever since.

Here are the 14 Cubs who arb-eligible and their projected salaries for 2025 according to MLBTR. Again, not an exact science, but these predictions have been a good guide to go off of in previous years as to what players do end up agreeing to with their respective teams.

• Yency Almonte: $2.2 million
• Christian Bethancourt: $2.5 million
• Mike Tauchman: $2.9 million
• Julian Merryweather: $1.3 million
• Nick Madrigal: $1.9 million
• Patrick Wisdom: $3 million
• Adbert Alzolay: $2.3 million
• Trey Wingenter: $1.4 million
• Nate Pearson: $1.4 million
• Isaac Paredes: $6.9 million
• Justin Steele: $6.4 million
• Jimmy Herget: $900K
• Colten Brewer: $800K
• Keegan Thompson: $1 million

So, here’s what I would do. Again, some of these are pretty easy.

100% bring ’em back
Justin Steele
Isaac Paredes
Mike Tauchman
Nate Pearson

See ya
Patrick Wisdom
Nick Madrigal
Christian Bethancourt
Colten Brewer
Jimmy Herget

Injuries suck (re-sign to MiLB deal?
Adbert Alzolay
Yency Almonte

Sure, why not
Keegan Thompson
Julian Merryweather
Trey Wingenter

It absolutely blows that both Adbert Alzolay and Yency Almonte had season-ending surgeries to their pitching arms because not only did that derail their 2024 season, it’s also clouding their future in 2025. Alzolay, who has only ever been in the Cubs organization, had Tommy John surgery in August, so he might not be pitching competitively until 2026. Meanwhile, Almonte, who the Cubs traded for alongside Michael Busch back in January, had right shoulder surgery and his status is unknown for the start of the 2025 season.

You simply can’t have two pitchers on your 40-man roster that may not even be available for the entire year. So, they should both be non-tendered, but hopefully the Cubs can keep them around on minor league deals.

Julian Merryweather also had surgery, but that was to repair a knee issue in September. Hopefully the Cubs will be certain that he’ll be healthy by spring training and if he is I’d be more than on board bringing him back for 2025.

Same goes for Keegan Thompson, who suffered a right foot injury on the last day of the regular season. Still no word if he’ll require surgery, but if he’s all right then I think he did enough in 2024 to re-establish himself as a solid option in the bullpen with the ability to cover multiple innings at a time. Fingers crossed his foot injury isn’t serious.

Righty reliever Trey Wingenter could go either way. He won’t have a minor league option in 2025, so if the Cubs keep him, then he’ll have to stay up in the majors unless they end up not caring about losing him on waivers.

The guys who should be non-tendered are easy choices for me. Christian Bethancourt had a few incredible weeks with the Cubs, but they can find plenty of veteran backups in the offseason. Colten Brewer? You forgot he was even on the team in 2024 and I completely missed the acquisition of Jimmy Herget.

As for Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal, pretty fucking please Cubs, do not tender those dudes. They’ve had their chance and there’s really no need to hold on to them with a bunch of your top prospects already at Triple-A who deserve the opportunity at the major league level over them.