MLBTR releases their 2025 arb estimates

You gonna pay $6 million for another year of Andrew Vaughn?

Over at MLBTR, Matt Swartz is getting his usual love with the publication of arbitration estimates for all players. For our purposes, we don’t care about all players, so here are the nine White Sox who could come before an arbitrator:

Justin Anderson (RHRP) (three years, 122 days service time) $1.1 million
Garrett Crochet (LHSP) (four years, 28 days) $2.9 million
Enyel De Los Santos (RHRP) (four years, 15 days)
Matt Foster (RHRP) (four years, 93 days) $900,000
Jimmy Lambert (RHRP) (three years, 108 days) $1.2 million
Nicky Lopez (IF) (five years, 139 days) $5.1 million
Gavin Sheets (1B/DH/RF/whatever) (three years, 76 days) $2.6 million
Andrew Vaughn (1B/DH) (four years) $6.4 million
Steven Wilson (RHRP) (three years) $1 million

Without doubting Swartz’s algorithm, Crochet comes in CRAZY LOW given both his 2024 performance and his service time. That one is an outlier. There is no way Crochet settles at $3 million, nor should he. Alternatively, that figure attached to him (despite Crochet’s “insistence” on a contract extension as part of any trade) could at least slightly aid trade talks; certainly better than having a Vlad Guerrero Jr. figure of $30 million!

Nicky Lopez, given the presence of Lenyn Sosa, Brooks Baldwin, Colson Montgomery and countless other cheap options on the AAAA market the White Sox will be shopping in, seems an easy decline. Andrew Vaughn, somehow due for more than twice the salary in spite of far less production and slightly less playing time, looks like an easy decline.

In fact, given the horrendousness of the team, it’s tempting to just wave a hand and decline all but Crochet. The Sox won’t/can’t do that, not with the readiness of their “improved” system. And Chris Getz simply won’t work hard enough to come up with better alternatives at a similar price tag to some of the relievers we already have at home, on this list.