Pollsters reveal what key issue will win — and lose — ‘extremely close presidential race’

The 2024 presidential election will come down to inflation, according to two polling experts, and while they agree that Vice President Kamala Harris is doing a better job of persuading voters she can tackle the issue than Donald Trump, the “framing war” of both campaigns will ultimately decide the race.

“Both sides understand that the game will be won or lost around the issue of inflation,” according to an interview in Salon with public opinion and politics experts Elizabeth Jarosz and Clifford Young of the market research firm Ipsos. “Right now, Harris is more effective at this than Trump. But there still is a month until Election Day.”

While both polling experts agree that Harris has been building momentum in the polls in a race that is essentially tied, they believe that so called “shy Trump voters,” may be “systematically undercounted in polling.”

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“They conclude that the 2024 election is a battle between Harris’ likeability and Trump’s perceived strengths on the economy and immigration — and that Harris has an easier path to victory than Trump,” according to Salon. The pollsters note that while Trump wins on policy issues, including economy and immigration, he is “not the clear frontrunner because Harris wins on personality.”

Jarosz and Young cautioned though that “any number of things can happen in the remaining weeks” of what they see as "an extremely close presidential race."

“In the end, we believe it will come down to the relative ability of each campaign to win the framing war. ‘Throw the Bums Out’ because of inflation versus future economic opportunity for all Americans. Harris is more effective with the latter narrative frame.”