MANILA, Philippines – Super Typhoon Julian (Krathon) exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility at 9 am on Tuesday, October 1, but it may reenter PAR on Wednesday, October 2.

As of 10 am, Julian was located 235 kilometers west of Itbayat, Batanes, slowly moving west.

The super typhoon slightly intensified as it left PAR, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 185 kilometers per hour to 195 km/h. Its gustiness is now up to 240 km/h from the previous 230 km/h.

Even though Julian is currently outside PAR, rainfall warnings remain in place for parts of Northern Luzon.

Tropical cyclone wind signals are still in effect as well for several areas in Northern Luzon and even for a few towns in Central Luzon, as “strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 630 kilometers from the center” of the super typhoon.

Julian did not make landfall in the Philippines, but passed very close to extreme Northern Luzon and has been bringing rain and winds the past few days.

In a briefing past 11 am on Tuesday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said rain will persist in the following areas:

Tuesday noon, October 1, to Wednesday noon, October 2

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): mainland Cagayan, Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region

Wednesday noon, October 2, to Thursday noon, October 3

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

Meanwhile, tropical cyclone wind signals remain raised in these areas as of 11 am on Tuesday:

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Batanes
• Babuyan Islands
• northern part of Ilocos Norte (Bacarra, Pasuquin, Bangui, Vintar, Burgos, Pagudpud, Dumalneg, Adams)
• northwestern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Apayao
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• Benguet
• rest of mainland Cagayan
• Isabela
• Quirino
• Nueva Vizcaya
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
• northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Pantabangan)

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the super typhoon is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Tuesday, October 1

• Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte

Wednesday, October 2

• Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela

Thursday, October 3

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands

PAGASA warned Batanes and Babuyan Islands that there is still a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.

For coastal waters, high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 7 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.

Very rough seas will continue in the seaboards of Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte (waves up to 6 meters high) and the seaboard of northern Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.

Moderate to rough seas will persist in the seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3 meters high), and the seaboard of northern Aurora and northern Zambales (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

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PAGASA expects Julian to “recurve towards the sea southwest of Taiwan” from Tuesday to early Wednesday morning. Taiwan is within PAR.

The super typhoon is projected to make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday morning or afternoon, then “cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan before emerging over the sea east of Taiwan” on Thursday morning, October 3.

Then it may move northeast toward the East China Sea and exit PAR — for the second and final time — on Thursday evening or early Friday morning, October 4.

Outside PAR, it could turn northwest over the East China Sea from Friday evening to early Saturday morning, October 5.

But the weather bureau added that “sudden” changes in Julian’s forecast track are likely.

In terms of intensity, PAGASA said Julian “still has a window for brief intensification in the next 18 hours.” But due to Taiwan’s mountainous terrain, it could weaken back into a typhoon on Wednesday and subsequently into a severe tropical storm on Thursday.

Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com