The rise and rise of subscription boxes shows the market is ripe for growth

The FMCG subscription box market in Australia has shown strong growth over the past few years, driven by increasing consumer demand for convenience and personalisation, the continued rise of e-commerce, and sustainable practices.

As of this year, the Australian FMCG subscription box market is valued at about $500 million annually, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 8-10 per cent over the next few years. 

From a global standpoint, Australia is a moderate adopter of FMCG subscription boxes, lower than the US and slightly lower than the UK, similar to Western European countries such as Germany and France, and higher than Apac markets. As the market matures, Australia’s position could shift, especially if more niche and innovative subscription services become available.

FMCG subscription box offers encompass a variety of sectors. In Australia, the top product categories include: health and beauty products, such as skincare and shaving supplies; pet care, food and beverage, such as meal kits; household essentials; and premium alcohol.

With strong growth and good prospects for more, the pressure will be on FMCG subscription box providers to find ways to stand out amid a growing market.

What’s behind the growth?

Brands that successfully offer personalised experiences are more likely to retain customers and build brand loyalty, particularly when employing data analytics and consumer feedback to curate products that match individual preferences. In the health and wellness sector, for instance, subscriptions for vitamins, supplements and organic foods allow consumers to customise their deliveries based on their health goals and dietary requirements​.

Also, sustainability has become an increasingly important consideration for many Australian consumers, particularly among younger demographics. Subscription services that emphasise eco-friendly practices, such as using recyclable packaging or offering ethically sourced products, may be preferred. 

The integration of technology into subscription services has also been a growth driver. Advanced technologies, such as AI and machine learning, enable brands to better understand consumer preferences and optimise their offerings for more personalised experiences, such as product recommendations. Dynamic subscription-management tools allow consumers to adjust their delivery schedules and product selections easily​. Technology can also enhance the overall customer experience by simplifying the subscription process, improving customer service through chatbots, and offering digital content that complements physical products. This integration of digital and physical experiences is becoming increasingly important in retaining customers and reducing churn rates, which we’ll discuss further shortly.

Benefits and challenges of the subscription model

Time savings: From delivery rather than in-person shopping trips, particularly for essential and frequently used items such as household goods and personal care products.

Consistency and reliability: Subscriptions provide a consistent supply of goods, which reduces the risk of running out of items that require regular replenishment

Customisation and personalisation: Many subscription services offer a high degree of personalisation, which can make the subscription cost seem more justified​

New product discovery: Kind of like the FMCG version of Spotify, subscription boxes may include products that are new or unique to the subscriber.

Sustainability: Some grocery and FMCG subscription suppliers focus on sustainable practices, such as using recyclable packaging or providing organic and ethically sourced products.

Challenges and drawbacks of the subscription model

Cost: The perceived ongoing expense for consumers can be higher than when shopping for groceries individually, especially if consumers don’t fully use the products received; for example,​ by not cooking all meals provided in the kit. The value the subscriptions are perceived to provide also may decline over time, leading to problems with customer retention.

Customer retention challenges: Depending on category, a substantial portion of subscribers may cancel within the first six months. This is often driven by customers being wary of promotional ‘traps’, where the full price kicks in after an initial promotional period, leading to higher-than-expected expenses if they forget to cancel or pause their subscription.​

Subscription fatigue: This is cross-category and is becoming increasingly prevalent. As consumers manage multiple subscriptions across different services, the time and expense this requires – and the potential to be overwhelmed from too many recurring deliveries – may lead to cancellations. This complexity adds to the sense of fatigue​. Consumers may look to simplify things, and reduce costs, by simply reducing or removing non-essential spending on subscriptions, 

Lack of flexibility: Not offering frequent delivery options, or lacking the flexibility to skip or modify orders easily can lead to frustration, especially if consumption patterns change.​

Product waste and over-consumption: There is a risk of receiving more products than needed, which can lead to waste, particularly with perishable items. This is a turnoff for consumers conscientious about waste.

Economic pressures: Continuously rising living costs have consumers increasingly scrutinising their spending. As of this year, nearly half (49 per cent) of businesses offering subscription services in Australia anticipate a reduction in the number of active subscriptions over the next year. 

Who and where are the opportunities? 

The heaviest users of FMCG subscription boxes in Australia tend to fall into a few specific groups. In no specific order, these are:

Young professionals: Career-focused, often living in urban areas, and with higher disposable incomes, they value convenience due to their busy lifestyles and are more likely to seek out services that save time, such as meal kits and household essentials.

Families with young children: Subscription services, such as for nappies, baby products, and meal kits with family-friendly recipes, simplify household management.

Health and wellness enthusiasts: This cohort is often focused on maintaining specific dietary habits, fitness routines, or skincare regimens. They are typically well-informed consumers who seek out products that align with their health goals and subscribe to vitamins and supplements, organic foods, and skincare products.

Pet owners: This group uses subscription services for pet food, treats, and grooming supplies. Pet owners often seek out premium products that contribute to their pets’ health and wellbeing.

Tech-savvy Millennials: Comfortable with technology and e-commerce, this generation is likely to explore and adopt new services, particularly those that offer a personalised, seamless online shopping experience. Beauty boxes, grooming kits, and niche food subscriptions that cater to specific tastes or lifestyle choices are favoured. Tech-savvy Millennials are attracted to brands that offer a modern, digital-first shopping experience with the flexibility to customise and manage their subscriptions online​.

These groups are drawn to subscription services that offer convenience, customisation, and the ability to seamlessly integrate into their lifestyles. The success of these services relies heavily on meeting the specific needs and preferences of these key consumer segments.

Key success factors 

Successful categories for FMCG subscription boxes involve some categories positively influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic, such as health and wellness and pet care. Beauty and grooming, household essentials, and meal kits also remain important categories. 

Across all sectors, there is a noticeable shift towards products that are environmentally friendly and ethically sourced, and toward sustainable and reduced packaging. There is also a growing trend toward niche markets, such as subscriptions focused on specific dietary needs, hobbies, or lifestyle choices.

Various companies have been successful in subscriptions for an array of reasons. Here are a few standout examples: 

Nestlé: Nespresso coffee pods. Highly successful due to the convenience it offers to coffee lovers who want to ensure they never run out of their preferred pods. The service also includes benefits like discounts, free delivery, and exclusive access to new products, which has helped retain a loyal customer base​.

P&G: Gillette razors and Pampers nappies. These services are available in Australia through retailers like Amazon and directly via brand websites. Gillette’s subscription service, in particular, has been successful in maintaining customer loyalty by offering a convenient way for users to receive razors regularly, reducing the likelihood of consumers switching to competing brands. 

Kimberly-Clark: Products like Huggies nappies and Kotex feminine hygiene. These subscriptions are available through online retailers and direct-to-consumer platforms.

L’Oréal: Skincare and beauty products through direct-to-consumer channels and partnerships with beauty subscription boxes like Birchbox. These subscriptions often include curated selections of products tailored to individual skincare needs. 

As subscriptions mature, platforms working for continuing success will need to innovate and differentiate. Brands that can offer unique products or experiences, such as exclusive access to new product launches or highly personalised subscription plans, will have a competitive advantage. Additionally, leveraging technology to enhance the customer experience, such as through AI-driven recommendations or seamless online management tools, will be crucial in retaining customers and reducing churn rates. Sustainability activities that may draw or retain customers will include eco-friendly practices, ethical sourcing, and transparent communication about sustainability efforts.

Subscription box providers will also need to show agility in adapting to changing consumer preferences. Brands will need to offer flexible subscription options that cater to individual needs and preferences. This may include offering tiered subscription plans, allowing customers to pause or skip deliveries, or providing customised product selections​.

Paths to marketing success

From a marketing standpoint, subscription box providers need a holistic program across multiple platforms and channels to drive awareness. 

Search-engine marketing and social media, including targeted ads, promotional posts, and influencer collaborations are givens. Partnerships with Amazon, Ebay and platforms such as Catch.com.au can help with discovery by including promotional inserts with deliveries. Partnerships with some retailers to offer boxes in physical stores can do the same. Some programs offer free trials through online retail channels and there are even partnerships with other subscription providers. A presence on review websites and blogs, including subscription box specialists such as Food Box Mate, can help. Other methods include traditional home letterbox drops and pop-up kiosks in shopping centres. Then there is a brand’s own direct marketing through electronic direct mail, newsletters to customers, and on the packaging itself, with QR codes offering exclusive content, and smart packaging.

Beware the promotional ‘drug’

Offering a discount on the first few deliveries is one of the most common promotional strategies used to attract new subscribers and is effective in lowering the perceived risk for new customers trying out a service. These promotions can lead to an increase in sign-ups, especially during key shopping periods. Likewise, free trials allow consumers to experience the product without any financial commitment, albeit with a substantial cost to the provider. 

These promotional tactics are effective at driving initial sign-ups, however, the challenge lies in converting these trial users into long-term subscribers who aren’t hooked on the lower promotional prices. The success of these promotions depends on the brand’s ability to deliver ongoing value that justifies the full subscription price once the promotional period ends. High churn rates are common, with as many as 50-60 per cent of consumers who sign up for a subscription box during a promotion cancelling their subscription within the first few months. 

To combat this, brands can combine offers with loyalty programs to encourage retention; for example, offering points or rewards that accumulate over time to incentivise customers to stay subscribed longer. Alternative promotions include bundling multiple products and categories to provide a more comprehensive solution, and making exclusive or limited-time offers for current customers. Flexible subscription models that allow customisation can also improve retention.

Ultimately, a balance needs to be struck between offering promotions to drive subscriptions, providing a unique and value-added proposition, delivering consistent value, managing customer expectations, and fostering long-term loyalty to build a stable customer base.

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