Israel is testing weak Iran – but its enemy could soon have a nuke and might not be afraid to use it
ISRAEL is trebling down. Not content with devastating attacks on its mortal enemies in Gaza and Lebanon, it has opened up a third front by bombing the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is spinning more plates and spinning them faster and faster.
It is undoubtedly a significant task, but it makes some sense when Israel considers who it thinks is the real, overarching enemy.
Israel is surrounded by a ring of fire — terror organisations Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, which are all backed by Iran.
And the Israelis have decided to attack all three at once precisely because Iran is on the back foot.
It is sending a message that if the Iranians choose to get involved, Israel will hit them as well. If that attack was to come, it would probably be aimed at Iran’s nuclear programme.
Going for broke
The Iranians do not yet have a workable nuclear weapon but, worryingly for the West, it could easily be within their grasp within a couple of months.
Iran could choose to dash to make a workable weapon.
We know they have already got enough highly-enriched uranium and have probably got a workable warhead trigger.
They have certainly been working on it ever since the international nuclear deal fell apart in 2018, when President Trump pulled the US out of it.
Otherwise, the Iranian nuclear programme would have stood still after 2015 for the next ten years.
But after 2018, it moved on apace.
So, if the Israelis do attack them, the Iranians might now go for a quick nuclear test to say to the world, “Look, we’ve got nuclear weapons, so you ought to be afraid of us”.
The Israelis would not be so unhappy about that, at least in the short-term, because the West will condemn the Iranians for crossing the threshold and going nuclear.
But another nuclear power in the Middle East is not what anybody needs.
It would be a dangerous development because it would probably promote nuclear proliferation across the Middle East.
The Saudis would get a bomb. They can not build it but they would buy one to counteract the Iranian bomb.
On the other hand, Iran might just try to convince their proxies to attack Western interests in the Middle East.
If they can not hit Israel directly, they will probably try even harder to hit the Americans as a way of pressuring the US to stop the Israelis.
It is a bit of a desperate strategy, but they might try it.
We are approaching the anniversary of the October 7 atrocity, when Hamas terrorists stormed into Israel from Gaza, killing around 1,200 Israelis and kidnapping 251.
When that happened, most people believed Israel should avoid a three-front war — in Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank.
They are geared up for a war in the way they were in the Arab-Israeli conflicts of 1967 and 1973
Michael Clarke
For nearly a year that seemed to be the situation, until less than two weeks ago when Israel masterminded their pager attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Since then, the pendulum has swung in Israeli military thinking — and they are going for broke by launching more attacks on Hezbollah.
The Israelis have been extremely successful. Taking out Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. With Hezbollah weakened, it looks as if Israel is about to invade southern Lebanon as tanks and troops mass on the border.
But past invasions of Lebanon do not have a happy history. Each invasion — in 1978, 1982 and 2006 — ended in failure.
The first was against the Palestine Liberation Organisation. The second was also against the PLO, but it had the effect of actually creating Hezbollah.
And 2006 saw a 34-day offensive which also failed.
If the Israeli Defence Force go into southern Lebanon, which I think they will, they will find it a great deal tougher than going into Gaza.
Southern Lebanon is mountainous. The tunnels are all in rock, not in sand, and Hezbollah have got more tunnels than Hamas had.
It would be a tough fight, undoubtedly, but this time Israel is very confident.
It’s like a dogfight
Now they are geared up for a war in the way they were in the Arab-Israeli conflicts of 1967 and 1973 — the Six-Day and the Yom Kippur wars. It’s the same mentality.
In 1967, the Israelis were totally dominant. While in 1973, they were attacked, fell back, were in desperate straits, then they came back in the second phase to completely dominate the war.
Left to their own devices, the IDF could beat Hezbollah if the Iranians do not intervene.
And this time the Israelis may have a real chance to knock Hezbollah off the board, at least for a long time, because they think that they have also got Iran on the back foot.
That is the gamble Israel is taking.
The sad fact is that no one involved in this war is listening to the West at all.
It is like a dogfight. While the fighting is going on, they are so obsessed with each other that they are not taking much notice of what anyone on the outside is saying.
And that is why this is a really dangerous moment for peace in the Middle East.