Signal No. 3 up as Severe Tropical Storm Julian continues to intensify

MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau raised Signal No. 3 due to Severe Tropical Storm Julian (Krathon) for the first time on Sunday morning, September 29, as the tropical cyclone further intensified over the Philippine Sea.

Julian’s maximum sustained winds increased from 95 kilometers per hour to 110 km/h, based on the 11 am bulletin of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).

The severe tropical storm’s gustiness is now up to 135 km/h from the previous 115 km/h.

PAGASA has repeatedly said that there is a “high chance of rapid intensification.” At the rate that Julian is strengthening, it could already become a typhoon by Sunday evening. The weather bureau is also not ruling out super typhoon status for Julian.

As of 10 am on Sunday, the severe tropical storm was located 290 kilometers east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan, or 300 kilometers east of Calayan, Cagayan. It decelerated, slowly moving west northwest.

Julian is projected to move generally west northwest to northwest toward the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area from Sunday to Tuesday morning, October 1, then north to north northeast over the waters east of Taiwan beginning Tuesday afternoon. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

By Monday, September 30, Julian is “highly likely” to make landfall in Batanes and/or Babuyan Islands, or pass very close to their area, which is considered extreme Northern Luzon. The tropical cyclone will also be closest to extreme Northern Luzon at or near peak intensity.

Below are the areas under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 11 am on Sunday.

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• northeastern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• Batanes
• northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)
• rest of Babuyan Islands (Camiguin Island, Calayan Island, Dalupiri Island, Fuga Island)

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• rest of Cagayan
• Isabela
• Apayao
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• northern part of Benguet (Bakun, Mankayan, Buguias)
• Ilocos Norte
• Ilocos Sur
• northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 4.

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the severe tropical storm may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Sunday, September 29

• Aurora, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol

Monday, September 30

• Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Quezon, Romblon, Bicol

Aside from bringing winds, Julian is causing moderate to torrential rain in parts of Northern Luzon, with floods and landslides possible.

Sunday noon, September 29, to Monday noon, September 30

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Apayao, La Union, Mountain Province, Benguet

Monday noon, September 30, to Tuesday noon, October 1

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): mainland Cagayan, Apayao, La Union, Mountain Province, Benguet

Tuesday noon, October 1, to Wednesday noon, October 2

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra

PAGASA earlier said scattered rain and thunderstorms due to Julian may also hit the rest of Northern Luzon, as well as Central Luzon and Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes on Sunday.

The rest of Luzon, including Metro Manila, could have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms from the trough or extension of the severe tropical storm.

The Visayas and Mindanao, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather. They may just see localized thunderstorms on Sunday.

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In the next 24 hours, very rough sea conditions will continue in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 9 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 7 meters high). PAGASA said travel is risky for most types of vessels.

Rough sea conditions will persist in the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4.5 meters high), the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), and the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

Moderate sea conditions are seen in the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024, and also the sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.

It may leave PAR on Thursday, October 3.

Meanwhile, PAGASA continues to monitor Tropical Storm Jebi, located outside PAR at 2,075 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon as of 8 am on Sunday.

The tropical storm decelerated, slowly moving north northwest.

It still has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.

The weather bureau previously said Jebi is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com