State of the Race: It's all about turnout

On Sept. 8, the presidential forecast from election analyst Nate Silver gave Donald Trump a 64% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Vice President Kamala Harris at 36%, and as you can imagine, liberals freaked the fuck out. Fox News loved it. But the notion was absurd at the time. The polls were essentially tied. 

On Sept. 20, Silver’s model flipped, showing Harris narrowly atop, with 51%. Did anything happen in the race to mark such a dramatic shift in his forecast? Of course not. His model sucks. 

And this week? Harris is now up 55% to Trump’s 45% as of Thursday. To hear Silver say it, Harris’ chance of winning has shifted up 14 percentage points in the past two weeks. But nothing has changed in that time frame. So today’s theme is just that: Ignore people claiming things are up and down. The number of undecided voters is extremely low. No one’s minds are being changed. This is now a turnout election.