Julian strengthens into tropical storm

MANILA, Philippines – Julian intensified from a tropical depression into a tropical storm on Saturday morning, September 28, with its maximum sustained winds increasing from 55 kilometers per hour to 65 km/h.

Its gustiness is now up to 80 km/h from the previous 70 km/h, added the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in a briefing past 11 am on Saturday.

Julian has been given the international name Krathon, a name contributed by Thailand which refers to the santol fruit.

As of 10 am on Saturday, the tropical storm was located 465 kilometers east of Aparri, Cagayan, slowly moving south southeast.

Julian is likely to strengthen further in the coming days, possibly becoming a severe tropical storm on Sunday, September 29, and a typhoon by Monday, September 30.

“There is an increasing likelihood of rapid intensification, and the possibility of [Julian] reaching super typhoon category is not ruled out,” PAGASA reiterated.

Julian is projected to move west southwest or west on Saturday, then generally northwest from Sunday to Monday toward the Batanes-Babuyan Islands area, before heading north northeast over the waters east of Taiwan beginning Tuesday, October 1. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

There remains a chance of Julian making landfall or going very near Batanes and/or Babuyan Islands on Monday. The tropical cyclone will also be closest to extreme Northern Luzon at or near peak intensity.

Julian is bringing rain to parts of Northern Luzon. Floods and landslides are possible in the following affected areas:

Saturday, September 28

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte

Sunday, September 29

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, Batanes, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Benguet

Monday, September 30

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 mm): Babuyan Islands
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Ilocos Norte
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Isabela, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Ilocos Region

Other areas in the country, which are not affected by the tropical storm, may only have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Saturday.

Additional areas were also placed under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am:

• Batanes
• Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• northern and eastern parts of Isabela (San Pablo, Divilacan, Maconacon, Palanan, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Tumauini, Ilagan City, San Mariano, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Dinapigue)
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Julian could be Signal No. 4.

The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards [Julian’s circulation] may also bring strong to gale-force gusts” to these areas:

Sunday, September 29

• Aurora, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol

Monday, September 30

• Aurora, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol

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In the next 24 hours, very rough sea conditions are expected in the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands (waves up to 5 meters high). PAGASA said travel is risky for small vessels, while larger vessels should be “properly equipped” and operated by experienced mariners.

Rough sea conditions are likely in the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 4 meters high), the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte and the remaining seaboard of Cagayan (waves up to 3.5 meters high), and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

Moderate sea conditions will be seen in the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024, and also the sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.

It may exit PAR on Wednesday, October 2.

PAGASA also continues to monitor Tropical Storm Jebi, located outside PAR at 2,225 kilometers east of extreme Northern Luzon as of 8 am on Saturday.

The tropical storm is moving west northwest at a slightly faster 25 km/h from the previous 20 km/h.

It still has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and gustiness of up to 90 km/h.

The weather bureau previously said Jebi is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com