Oscars: ‘The Brutalist’ climbs up, up, up Best Picture odds after festival showings

There’s no denying this Holocaust movie.

Gold Derby has been tracking the top Oscar races for months, and one film that has made a huge climb in our Best Picture odds is “The Brutalist.” In the predictions chart above, you can see how this movie (represented by the dark pink color) has continued climbing up the rankings, while some of its fellow contenders remain essentially flat.

A24’s historical drama is directed by Brady Corbet and stars Adrien Brody as Holocaust survivor László Tóth, Felicity Jones as his wife Erzsébet Tóth, and Guy Pearce as wealthy industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren. Currently, “The Brutalist” comes in seventh place to win Best Picture with 11/1 odds. The six films above it on our chart are “Anora” (8/1 odds), “Conclave” (9/1 odds), “Emilia Perez” (9/1 odds), “Dune: Part Two” (19/2 odds), “Sing Sing” (19/2 odds) and “Blitz” (10/1 odds).

So what is the major explanation for why “The Brutalist” continues to skyrocket up our Oscar charts? Film festivals! Reactions from those who screened it at the Venice International Film Festival and the Toronto International Film Festival were extremely positive. In fact, “The Brutalist” won five prizes at Venice including the Silver Lion, a best directing honor for Corbet.

At Rotten Tomatoes, the movie has a near-perfect score of 98%, with the critical consensus being that it’s “structurally beautiful.” David Fear (Rolling Stone) raves about its “sprawling narrative” with a high level of “storytelling, chops, nerve and verve.” David Ehrlich (IndieWire) declares, “Brody is raw, sincere and commanding in a role that evokes ‘The Pianist.'” And Peter Bradshaw (Guardian) writes, “It is an electrifying piece of work, stunningly shot by cinematographer Lol Crawley and superbly designed by Judy Becker.”

Elsewhere in Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions, “The Brutalist” is expected to be competitive in major races like Best Director (Corbet is in third place), Best Actor (Brody is in third place), Best Supporting Actress (Jones is in fifth place), Best Supporting Actor (Pearce is in third place), and Best Original Screenplay (Corbet and Mona Fastvold are in fourth place). Below-the-line categories will be added to our predictions center in the coming months, so watch out for it in several tech races.

Following its festival victories, A24 acquired United States distribution rights for “The Brutalist,” and the film is now scheduled to be released on December 20, 2024.

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions