Want to win the Grammy for Best New Artist? These are some of the key factors that have led to victory

The Grammy for Best New Artist has gone to some of music history’s biggest and most influential names, from Carly Simon to Adele. While the award is often the subject of controversy, including questionable eligibility guidelines and many winners not even really being new artists, it is still the most prestigious honor a newcomer can achieve in the industry. Winning the award often comes down to a combination of factors. Let’s consider how success, acclaim, and other industry shenanigans often coincide to pick the artist who takes the coveted award.

Commercial success is thought to be a main factor in winning the award, and looking at the history of winners, it’s not hard to see why. The award’s very first recipient, Bobby Darin, was a huge star with his signature hit, “Mack the Knife,” and a couple other top-10s in his debut year. Ever since, the vast majority of winners have had top-10 hits in their breakout years — from The Beatles, The Carpenters, and Natalie Cole in the ’60s and ’70s to Dua Lipa, Megan Thee Stallion, and Olivia Rodrigo in recent years. It’s not that voters go out of their way to reward whoever is higher on the Billboard charts, per se, but accessibility, promotion, and thus familiarity make a difference.

Not all winners are big commercial names, though. Just two years after Darin’s inaugural win, jazz and classical artist Peter Nero prevailed, beating hit-makers Timi Yuro and The Lettermen. Others like Marvin Hamlisch, Esperanza Spalding, and Samara Joy have also defeated more commercial contenders. This can happen when jazz or classical artists face off against higher-profile challengers with vulnerabilities. For example, Nero’s aforementioned competitors had one top-10 hit each (neither hit the top three), which isn’t necessarily enough to guarantee you’re not a one-hit wonder. Likewise, Hamlisch and Joy faced artists that at most had one top-10 by voting time.

Other exceptions to the biggest-hit-maker rule boil down to industry esteem. Chance the Rapper revolutionized streaming in the music industry, which even prompted the Grammys to follow his lead, so it made sense that the industry would reward him. There’s also Victoria Monét, who is quite a success in her own right, but did face higher-profile artists like Jelly Roll and Noah Kahan. Monét made a name for herself as a well-respected songwriter behind the scenes, having worked with myriad artists, contributions that likely helped make the case for her.

Speaking of songwriting, that also seems to be a particularly important factor, especially this century. Most of the winners during this period have had a reputation for being adult-contemporary singer-songwriters as opposed to artists who mostly make bops. If you look at the past 24 winners, all fit this narrative to some extent, with the exception of the jazz singers (jazz music is heavy on covers) and, perhaps, Christina Aguilera, who was known more for her vocals than her songwriting.

Funnily enough, critical acclaim, which could be considered a strong indicator of music’s quality, seems to be irrelevant to winning the award. Yes, some champs have also been lauded by critics, but winning based on acclaim alone is quite hard. Perhaps the exception to this rule was Bon Iver, the alternative music collective which took the award over names like Nicki Minaj, Skrillex, and J. Cole, but Bon Iver was likely helped by vote-splitting between the hip-hop nominees as well as the industry esteem and singer-songwriter factors mentioned above.

Similarly, while Shelby Lynne might have seemed like a left-field pick against Brad Paisley and Jill Scott, her acclaim was far greater, and it also likely helped that Lynne had been working for more than a decade and thus likely had strong industry connections. And Chance the Rapper had massive critical acclaim for his breakout mixtape “Coloring Book,” enough to beat chart-toppers The Chainsmokers, who lacked that singer-songwriter appeal that Chance, known for his introspective rap, had.

So what does this mean for this year’s lineup? Expect Sabrina Carpenter, who has achieved the sales, singer-songwriter appeal, and industry cred she’d need to win. Other breakthrough artists like Chappell Roan, Benson Boone, and Shaboozey also fit most of the key criteria. But also keep an eye out for under-the-radar contenders or acclaimed picks like rock bands The Last Dinner Party and English Teacher or R&B singer Yaya Bey.