Oscars Best Actor odds update: Ralph Fiennes (‘Conclave’), Colman Domingo (‘Sing Sing’) now tied for 1st place

Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) has long been our Oscars front-runner for Best Actor, but the ground keeps shifting under his feet, and now one of his rivals has risen up to tie him. Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) is now dead even with him at 4/1 odds, based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. But both of them need to keep an eye on two other contenders directly underneath them who could swoop in at any minute.

At the moment, Domingo has support from six of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets. That’s more than are predicting any other contenders, but it’s far from the majority of Experts. Meanwhile, there are four top journos betting on Fiennes. But there’s reason for Domingo to be concerned. Of the 13 Experts who have updated their predictions in the last week, none are currently picking Domingo to win, so the momentum may be shifting.

What makes Fiennes so formidable, beyond his performance in “Conclave” of course, is the fact that he has a huge Oscar IOU to cash in. Despite appearing in 21st century Oscar movies like “The Reader,” “The Hurt Locker,” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” he hasn’t gotten an Oscar nomination since “The English Patient” (1996). And he has only ever been nominated twice by the academy, also counting his supporting bid for “Schindler’s List” (1993).

But as I mentioned above, the two men below him and Domingo are also fighting their way up the chart. Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist“) and Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown“) each have five Experts betting on them to win. One interesting tidbit about these two rivals is that Brody currently holds the record as the youngest Best Actor winner of all-time; he was a few weeks shy of his 30th birthday when he prevailed for “The Pianist” (2002). Chalamet, who turns 29 in December, would break that record if he wins. But since Brody already has a trophy and Chalamet is still a whippersnapper, Oscar voters might not be in a hurry to award either of them this year.

Still, this four-way race remains too close to call, so we can probably expect more fluctuations in the coming weeks and months.