Series Preview: Mets Look to Clinch in Atlanta

The Mets are two wins away from making the playoffs. Those wins need to come in Atlanta. It took a 65-36 run to get to this point. Back in 2022, at an eerily similar point in the season, the Mets went to Atlanta and got swept. That year, the Braves erased a 10.5-game lead to earn the division title. The Mets settled for a Wild Card.

The Mets were 22-33 on May 29 – 10 games back of the Braves in the Wild Card standings – third from the bottom in the league. They have erased the Braves’ lead, and are up two games – but still have work to do.

Since the Mets and Braves have split 10 contests, the team that wins this series will take the season series, the playoff tiebreaker. (MLB has done away with one-game playoffs to determine playoff spots.)

Should New York drop two of three, they would be up one game with three to play and the Braves would hold the tiebreaker. Scary. Scarier would be if the Mets were to pull a 2022 and get swept (they’d be down one game, and the Braves would hold the tiebreaker, not ideal.) The Mets finish in Milwaukee while the Braves host the Royals.

The Mets lost memorably on May 29. Jorge López was ejected and tossed his glove into the crowd, Francisco Lindor called a team meeting and the reliever was DFA’d. López was ejected for arguing with third base umpire Ramon De Jesus, who ruled Freddie Freeman didn’t go around on a check swing. Would the Mets be here if De Jesus had given Lopez the call?

METS ROLLING INTO ATLANTA

Brandon Nimmo asked for a packed Citi Field, he got it and then some. He hit a tiebreaking home run in a 2-1 victory over the Phillies on Sunday night in front of 43,139 fans at Citi Field. The Mets went 6-1 on their final homestand of the season and are 15-5 in September. This team is hot.

A little luck didn’t hurt either. Bryson Stott stole third for the Phillies in the ninth inning and Francisco Alvarez‘s throw hit the base, bounced up in the air, and stayed on the infield. It easily could have gone down the left-field line and allowed Stott to score to tie the game.

It reminded me of a play I’d heard about during the Mets’ run to the 1973 division title.

WHAT’S THE STORY

Rivals clash again. The Mets seek revenge for 2022, as noted above. And for the 1999 NLCS. And many of the years in between. Lindor (back) remains day-to-day. Luisangel Acuña has filled in admirably (11-for-29, three home runs), but the Mets would love to get their MVP candidate back in the lineup. Maybe Acuña plays second or the outfield? (Fun fact: Acuña already has a higher WAR (0.8) than Starling Marte (0.6) and J.D. Martinez (0.4). One day I’ll learn how they come up with that stat.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Tuesday: Luis Severino (11-6, 3.79 ERA) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (7-7, 3.61 ERA): Sevy is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in September and hasn’t lost since Aug. 11. He’s given up four runs in 10 innings (3.60 ERA) in two starts vs. Atlanta. Schwelly (?) is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA this month. The rookie right-hander dominated the Mets on July 27, pitching seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball while striking out 11.
• Wednesday: David Peterson (9-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (18-3, 2.38 ERA): Peterson is coming off one of his worst outings of the year (3.2 innings, 5 runs, 8 hits) and he’s been hit hard two of his last three times out.  He gave up four runs in five innings in his only start vs. Atlanta. Sale, the heavy Cy Young favorite, hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a game since June 1. He’s 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in September. He gave up two runs in 7.1 innings in his only start vs. New York on July 25.
• Thursday: Sean Manaea (12-5, 3.29 ERA) vs. Max Fried (10-10, 3.42 ERA): Manaea is 2-0 with a 2.36 ERA in five September starts. He has not faced the Braves this year. Fried, 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA this month, hurled seven scoreless innings in a win over the Mets on May 11.

PREDICTION

OMG. The Mets are facing two pitchers who combined to throw 14 scoreless innings against them earlier this year. And the other pitcher is Chris Sale. Why must making the playoffs be so hard? Well, I believe. The Mets take two out of three and clinch a playoff berth in Atlanta. Sweet revenge.

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