Harris debate performance falls short of moving the needle in swing states

Vice President Harris was widely seen by voters as the clear winner of her debate against former President Trump, but that sentiment has failed to move the needle in key battleground states where the presidential nominees are still neck-and-neck heading into November.

Harris’s debate performance has been hailed in the nearly two weeks since it occurred, with voters in several surveys, including those conducted that evening, believing she is better at staying calm under pressure, more intelligent and has higher moral integrity than Trump.

But in the nearly two dozen polls conducted since the match-up, Harris’s slight lead over Trump nationally and in swing states grew by less than one percentage point and, in some states, Trump’s lead grew, albeit by razor-thin margins.

Harris currently holds a 3.6 percentage point lead over Trump nationally, according to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ aggregate polling, which has grown just slightly since the day before the debate, when she had a 3.2 percentage point lead.

Surveys in battleground states tell a similar story. Harris saw slight spikes in her lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin in the weeks since the debate but her lead remained the same in Michigan, which makes up part of the blue wall. Trump has a 0.1 lead over Harris in Arizona and Georgia, two other key states a candidate needs to proclaim victory.

“While it's true that the battleground states remain on a knife's edge, that was always going to be the case in a country as split along partisan lines as we are right now, and no debate performance was going to shift those state numbers significantly,” said John LaBombard, former communications director to Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.).

Harris is up 1.2 percentage points in Michigan, the aggregate polling shows, which is the same lead she had the day before the debate. Harris is up 1.1 percentage point in Pennsylvania, which is a minor increase from the 0.7 percentage point lead she had pre-debate.

And, in Nevada, Harris has a 1.2 percentage point lead, which is an uptick from the 0.5 percentage point lead she had pre-debate. Her biggest lead is in Wisconsin, by 2 percentage points, but that’s a decline from the 3 percentage point lead she had on Sept. 9.

Meanwhile, in Arizona, the aggregation shows Trump with a 0.1 percentage point lead over Harris, which is a flip from the 0.1 percentage point lead Harris had over him before the debate. Trump has a 0.1 percentage point lead in Georgia, which is a decease from his 0.3 percentage point lead he had before the debate.

Strategists don’t see much in the way of either candidate coming out that far ahead in key battleground states where the margins are so thin.

“Anyone who is expecting the polling to break open one way or the other will be sorely disappointed,” said Clayton Cox, former Democratic National Committee (DNC) national finance director, noting what he called a “calcified electorate.”

 “What matters now is ground game, enthusiasm and ability to motivate a volunteer army. On that basis, I would rather be Harris over Trump any day of the week,” Clayton said.

Democrats since the debate have been cautious to claim victory just yet and are painting Harris, as she herself often does on the campaign trail, as the underdog in the race. 

“We are still in a margin of error race. It’s a tie,” Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said at a fundraising event with Oprah Winfrey on Thursday. “We’ve got to go persuade those people who don’t know enough about the vice president and her vision for the future…have those hard conversations in big and small ways, we’re going to inch our way over the finish line.” 

Republicans, too, see the race as too close to call.

Stewart Verdery, who served in former President George W. Bush’s administration, expects  there won’t be a big, game-changer moment before November.

“When Trump has a bad debate or there’s a new oddball poll, it’s treated as a game-changer.  But the simple truth is that two parties are within 2 to 3 points of each other nationally so there will never be a definitive moment in the campaign,” he said. “But within those slim margins, Harris has improved her odds considerably since the debate and now appears to be going into the old basketball ‘four corners’ to run out the clock.”

To that point, individual polls also paint varying pictures of the state of the race.

An Emerson College and The Hill poll on Thursday found Trump edging out Harris in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all by just one point, and edging out Harris in Georgia by 3 points. Harris edged out Trump in Michigan by 2 points, North Carolina by 1 point and the two candidates were tied in Nevada.

Harris and Trump were tied in Pennsylvania in a Marist poll released on Thursday. That poll found that Harris edged out Trump by five points in Michigan and by 1 point in Wisconsin. A Quinnipiac University poll on Wednesday found Harris leading Trump by 6 points in Pennsylvania, 5 points in Michigan, and by 1 point in Wisconsin.

Democrats still, however, are optimistic that the groundwork Harris has put into the swing states will pay off by election day, despite the lack of movement in the polls after the debate.

“It's still a close, competitive election, but we are in a stronger position than they are… we have more money, more volunteers, we have more enthusiasm. There's a lot of optimism on our side that we're in a stronger position today, and we have a much stronger capacity to close,” said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg. “There is no good news for Trump in the battlegrounds.”