[OPINION] Sara Duterte: Shimenet like the hearings, but institutions matter

A lot has been said about the political intramurals between Vice President Sara Duterte and members of Congress in the recent budget hearings. The focus of public discourse has been on the political players: who’s falling out with whom, who’s good and who’s evil, who’s likely to run, win, and lose in 2025 and 2028. 

Such focus, while necessary, must extend to what these political players — and their play — represent about what’s discouraging and encouraging about Philippine politics. I argue that the unintended beneficiary of recent political dynamics is the idea of institutions — that is, rules and institutional arrangements shape, even limit, the behavior of politicians and citizens.  

But, first, a note on “shimenet.”That term has launched a thousand memes and two sides of a burning debate: is it a mockery of the Visayan accent or a mockery of VP Sara’s behavior? I am Visayan (taga-Cebu), and when the term first came out, I never thought of it as offensive because, to me, it was a message about VP Sara and her recalcitrance, and not about Visayan-speaking Filipinos. Political satire, so to speak; weapons of the weak. 

It’s plain and simple to me: shimenet is a reminder of the arrogance of Sara Duterte. I think that reminder is necessary. It is also the starting point of this think piece.  

Philippine Congress as an institution

VP Sara Duterte is now getting a taste of her own medicine. Where before she and her ilk would use congressional hearings to put critics to shame, she now finds herself at the receiving end of that playbook.  VP Sara should be grateful. The current players in Congress, both in the Lower House and the Senate, are nicer to her than they were to the likes of former senator Leila de Lima, who was mercilessly slut-shamed in public.  

Ironically, it was VP Sara who drew first blood. When Senator Risa Hontiveros asked her at the Senate budget hearing to elaborate on her book, Isang Kaibigan, that was to be made part of the Office of the Vice President’s budget, a matter-of-fact response would have sufficed (for example, “It’s meant to raise awareness on proper values” or “The only reason my name is mentioned there is because it’s a project of the OVP”). She, not Senator Risa, threw the first punch with her rant on budget hearings being politicized. 

That clearly showed her arrogance and sense of entitlement: she — and she alone — was supposed to do the politicizing. I could almost hear her say to Senator Risa: I got 31 million votes, I don’t answer to anyone who won only on her third try.  

Elections vs governance

But here’s the thing that VP Sara forgot: the logic of elections is different from the logic of governance. In governance, one cannot simply deal directly with “the people,” one must go through representatives and institutions. In institutions, popular consent is not the name of the game. VP Sara must get the support of politicians who, like her, know how to lie, bargain, and skirmish for political ends.   

In elections, all she needs is a one-time vote. In governance, she must endure back-and-forth exchanges, with and among politicians who may even be more cunning than her in navigating traditional politics. In elections, she may be a landslide winner. In cngressional hearings, she is just one of the members of the executive branch who must deal with the fact that Congress holds the power of the purse. She can declare to be “unbowed,” but so can Congress.  

To illustrate further, let’s take oath-taking during congressional hearings as an example. In one budget hearing in the house, VP Sara tried to get away with refusing to take the oath by saying she was invited as a “resource person” and not a “witness.” But everyone who has been watching congressional hearings on TV news or livestreaming already knows that even resource persons are asked to take the oath. And that the refusal to take the oath means that one refuses to tell the truth. That institutional arrangement alone has proved a setback for VP Sara, no matter her political spin.  

Weather-weather lang ’yan. President Marcos Jr. and his main ally in Congress, Speaker Martin Romualdez, are merely taking advantage of a Duterte legacy. The strongman Rodrigo Duterte didn’t close down Congress, he just “captured” it by populating it with allies and scaring off critics. The tables may have been turned, but the fact remains: Congress is there for anyone’s taking. This time, obviously, it’s the Marcoses capturing Congress.  

While we now see the importance of institutions like the Philippine Congress in exacting accountability, we also see how damaged it is. A legislature is supposed to be representative of different sections of society. What the public hearings show is that, except for a handful of non-dynasts, Philippine Congress is dominated by powerful, popular political families. Same old names: Marcos, Estrada, Macapagal, Villar, Nograles, Cayetano, Binay, etc. 

While we can say that indeed Philippine representative institutions exist and are functioning, we also need to repeatedly ask: whose voices are being heard? This question is important because, ultimately, the decisions that bind us as a nation are made by these (limited, exclusive) voices.  

The ‘opposition’ and elections 2025-2028

If VP Sara Duterte can’t win Congress, she will likely go to the people — in 2025 and 2028.  Again, this is the Duterte playbook, the populist strategy. VP Sara going to Peñafrancia is an excellent example. With that singular move, she put on full display both the Marcos and the Duterte vibe. Like Marcos, she is the champion of the unity call (truer than Marcos, in fact; for why would she go to her former enemy’s territory if not for “unity”?). Like Duterte, she is brave: she will dare go even to the lion’s den.  

That the Dutertes will attempt to reclaim Malacañang in 2028 is already a given.  So too the attempt of the Marcoses to stay in power after 2028. The problem of the Marcoses is that they don’t have a ready candidate. Martin Romualdez may prove successful in gaining and mobilizing allies as the Speaker of the House, but he doesn’t seem to be gaining traction as a potential presidential candidate. Without anyone from their ranks (Sandro is too young), the Marcoses may have to get an “outsider” as candidate — some popular guy who can rein in the votes vis-à-vis a Duterte (for example, a Tulfo?). In this regard, the Dutertes, by having a Sara Duterte, clearly have a headstart.  

Team Unity, the Marcos-Duterte alliance in 2022, has obviously fallen apart. The Pink movement, however, is also evidently in disarray.   The recent “VP Sara visits Leni during Peñafrancia” episode is a case in point. When that piece of news broke out, there was much confusion among the ranks of the kakampinks. Leni’s spokesperson Barry Guiterrez tried to soften the blow by saying that the former VP didn’t expect VP Sara to visit, and that accepting her into the home of Leni was just the proper thing to do. Former VP Leni herself later announced to the press that the Peñafrancia was “politically neutral,” and this was the reason why she would welcome anyone and everyone in her home.  

Such explanations, however, did not stop netizens from raising their frustration. It also did not stop Sonny Trillanes — a former ally — from attacking Leni on social media. (By the way, what’s with this guy? Is he really part of the opposition?)

I have already written about this episode elsewhere: that I can believe that this was really Sara Duterte’s political communications team at work, and that Leni may just have welcomed VP Sara out of courtesy. But that, unlike what Leni’s camp was saying, VP Sara’s visit was political, not just personal. Everyone knows that in a country dominated by Catholics, every Catholic gathering is a platform for candidates to gain visibility and generate support (because that’s where the voters are and, in Naga, that’s the Peñafrancia).  

If Leni didn’t really want the event to be politically charged, she should have made her own devotion to the Lady of Peñafrancia in private — because she herself is already the epitome of “the political” (she drew in 14 million votes, remember?). 

And do I think that what Leni did was wrong? Yes, I think it was wrong, if one were to take the hat of a member of the opposition preparing for elections 2025-2028. Imagine the alternative scenario and headline: “Leni snubs VP Sara.” That would have been justifiable (kasi kasuka-suka naman talaga si VP Sara!). And that would have been more consolidating of the kakampinks. In other words, Leni missed a political opportunity to rally the opposition — one that is much needed given that elections are just around the corner.  

Another (more major) political opportunity that Leni and the kakampink movement missed was consolidating the kakampinks immediately after the electoral loss in 2022.  For a brief moment at the Leni-Kiko thanksgiving event a few days after the elections, it seemed that the movement had a future. Leni had declared that she was going to launch a “national volunteer movement.” I was there at that event and heard the thunderous applause when she said that. I even saw some people cry. That meant the volunteers wanted to continue what they were doing.  

Unfortunately, no launch happened. Instead, Leni put up the NGO Angat Buhay. While this was a commendable and necessary thing to do, it did not offer a platform for more popular participation and mobilization of erstwhile kakampinks. An NGO is a small service-oriented organization. It is not a mass base that can be mobilized for electoral purposes. The need is not just to help communities but to secure communities from the reach of vultures like the Marcoses and the Dutertes.  

Fourteen million was not a winning number, but it is not a small number. It was a political movement waiting to be consolidated and expanded. IMHO, missing this opportunity was not the fault of VP Leni alone but her entire campaign team. They did not prepare for the scenario of losing. 

In an election, one must always prepare to lose. Especially in Philippine elections, where the system is “first past the post” (only the majority vote gets the seat), one needs to be able to see and further gains beyond winning the seat. The 14 million, for example, could have been viewed as a gain and not a loss, an incipient reform movement that could make a difference in future elections and governance. But nobody prepared for losing.  

The “opposition” today is clearly in a dilemma. There are, of course, some bright lights. Senator Risa has been doing an excellent job in the Senate exposing corruption and illegal activities.   There are also some potential candidates for the senatorial race in 2025 and some progressive party list and local candidates. Even Leni has already declared that she is running for Naga City mayor, and this is a positive development for the local elections.  

At the national level, the opposition will have to deal with a tremendous dilemma. How will it position itself in the likely scenario of a dominantly two-way fight between Sara Duterte and a Marcos candidate in 2028?  The opposition can afford to present itself as a “third force” in 2025, but can it do this in 2028?   Because if it does, most likely, Sara Duterte will come out the winner (because the anti-Duterte votes will be split).  

And how would the opposition position itself vis-à-vis a Sara Duterte presenting herself as “the opposition”? Among the echo chambers of the opposition, this may not be a problem — they know that Duterte is a faction, not an opposition. But beyond the echo chambers, how will the messaging go? 

To be the “real” opposition in the eyes of the masses, the opposition must present itself as an alternative to both Sara Duterte and the Marcoses. An alternative that is worthy of the vote. This is a difficult thing to do because the context is one of polarization between Duterte and Marcos and the absence of an opposition movement (take note, there is an opposition but it is not a movement). In this context, voters will have only one question in mind: Sino kaya ang pipiliin ko: si Duterte o si Marcos? Most likely, they are not going to ask: May iba pa ba dyan? 

You want an opposition movement or a third force? Be one NOW. In Philippine elections, time is of the essence. – Rappler.com