What the Toronto Raptors Should Do With Jakob Poetl
The 2023 trade for Jakob Pöltl startled – and angered – many.
It was not Pöltl, the player, sparking the ire, but the implication. Most pundits and fans considered Toronto a seller at the trade deadline. The team had sputtered. Egos were choleric. Vibes horrendously low. An early six-game losing streak in December affirmed a festering many smelt from afar. The team teetered upon extinction.
Masai Ujiri thought otherwise. It was not the construction of the core – Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, O.G. Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., and, now, Scottie Barnes – the problem. Rather, the failed centreless experiment. Most evidently displayed in the playoffs against Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers the year prior.
Pascal and O.G. needed relief from the trench warfare down low. Freddy thirsted for anyone capable of setting a screen. A reunion of the Bench Mob years past, to boot, and all would be hunky-dory once again.
Pöltl helped. The team starkly more efficient at both ends of the floor. Fred VanVleet benefitted most: a behemoth screener and capable roller claiming time and space for Freddy to attack. Still, problems – profound and shallow – persisted; overcrowding; more selfishness; more bad vibes. All of it culminating in an embarrassing Play-In meltdown.
The tale that followed is still ripe in fans’ minds. Freddy scurried for richer waters. O.G. got shipped. Pascal got shipped. Gary, sayonara. All in exchange for much less than their collective value. Toronto burned for hoarding talent too long.
Now, Pöltl, somewhat ironically, is the last veteran piece of that closing chapter. His fate next in question.
Trade ‘Em
The case for trading Pöltl is simple economics.
The League has once again leaned into size. Of the elite teams, only Boston and Dallas lack formidable “big(s)” – they are each uniquely outfitted. Elsewhere, in Cleveland, Denver, Memphis, Minnesota, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia, front courts are mammoth.
Any contender, to run the gauntlet, will need the versatility of going jumbo. It’s why so many celebrated Isaiah Hartenstein’s recent three-year $87 million contract with the Oklahoma City. And why names like Walker Kessler, Nick Richards, and Robert Williams are already bandied about by contenders, like New York.
Supply and demand is ding ding ding dollar signs for Toronto. Dependable 7-footers in the league are scarce. Let alone, someone with the touch, wherewithal, discipline, deference, and evenness like Pöltl who holds his own against MVP centres, like Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid.
Pöltl is 29 in October, under contract for two more years, and on one of the few teams in the League not “all-in”. Ripe conditions for a bidding war.
There’s also internal motivation within the franchise to move Pöltl sooner than later. His acquisition came with aforementioned controversy. Draft capital – that later turned into Rob Dillingham in this years draft or, perhaps, could have been Zach Edey – went out the door at a time when a rebuild was on the horizon.
Combine that retrospective “error” with the talent exodus and the unfavourable Pascal Siakam-trade, and, aesthetically, Masai could use a decisive triumph. A small treasure trove return in exchange for Pöltl would absolve much of his past sins.
Don’t Trade ‘Em
Trading a centre of Pöltl’s caliber simply cause it’s a good deal is not reason enough. Even for a “new era” team like the Raptors.
Last year, Toronto was +9.6 points per 100 possessions with Pöltl on the floor – only Boston had a better point differential. Following the Siakam and Anunoby trades, lineups with Pöltl remained potent. The foursome of Pöltl, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett, in a limited sample size of 500 possessions, had a net rating in the 95th percentile.
Pöltl is a graceful, powerful giant who outwits opponents with a unique combination of strength, fundamentals, and a mythical Spursian wisdom Gregg Popovich instills in all disciples.
He roams point-to-point like an automated basketball fundamentals Roomba. Most always in the right place, at the right time. Making up for his lack of explosiveness with foresight and precision.
Defending the pick and roll, for example, Pöltl survives by stalling out actions. Rather than drop like many traditional bigs, the Raptors have Pöltl meet ballhandlers at the level of the screen. A testament to his footwork for such bulk. As they approach, Pöltl disguises his intentions – provoking and retreating – buying time for teammates to recover and rotate.
Pöltl can’t shoot nor create for himself, but he ensures productivity in a multitude of other ways. He’s an elite finisher and savvy passer. He entombs defenders on screens. And has become more and more threatening as a roller (from 1.17 points per possession in 2022 to 1.29 points in 2023).
Pöltl and Quickley, in particular, have found success in the pick and roll. The Raptors boasted a 121.43 offensive rating in 432 possessions with the pair on the floor. A small sample size equal to the top of the league.
However the Raptors move forward, though, the blueprint must augment Barnes most. Which is not the easiest of tasks. Barnes is undefinable, positionally. A point guard one possession; a punishing post puncher the next.
Perhaps, a more springy, better-shooting, mobile big would better suit his array of talents. But that doesn’t mean Pöltl is a bad fit. Post-Siakam and Anunoby, the tandem of Pöltl and Barnes were +5.7 per 100 possessions in 499 possessions. The two of them haunting undersized teams with an offensive rebounding rate in the 86th percentile.
Pöltl’s dependability down low gives Barnes the freedom to roam both ends of the floor. On defence, Pöltl handles the primary big, leaving Barnes to stalk the weakside, pouncing on unsuspecting drivers or closing out shooters with his trademark screech. Teams shot a league-low 57.5% at the rim when both were on the floor.
On offence, Pöltl absorbs similar attention, pulling bigs out of the paint with pick and rolls and high post plays freeing Barnes to operate most anywhere he chooses.
Below, you see both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren helpless to prevent Barnes hitting Pöltl with a simple wing-entry, backdoor seal. Then, Brandon Ingram is mercilessly discarded by Pöltl’s big-on-big screen. Finally, Jonas Valančiūnas steps higher than he’d like to Barnes allowing Pöltl to slip past for the floater.
Pöltl’s high-post presence, conversely, allows Barnes to isolate and bury slighter defenders down low. Something, new head coach, Darko Rajaković, exploited often through a number of designed actions for Barnes and others.
Rose-coloured observers might say this group is one large, collective step forward and an elite shooter/creator away from transforming into a formidable starting five.
Toronto would prove wise to keep Pöltl and see that play out.
What to Do
The obvious answer is to trade Pöltl. In a full rebuild, ripping a team down to its studs and accumulating as much value as possible is the logical line of thought.
But teambuilding isn’t collecting Pokémon cards.
There’s so much of the unquantifiable that a veteran like Pöltl provides. We’ve seen recently in Detroit, Houston, and Washington how losing swiftly infects a young team. And, how that kind of misery engenders bad habits and threatens young, potential Stars’ careers.
Veterans demonstrate professionalism off the floor and provide stability on it. They heft the bulk of responsibility giving younger players time to develop at their own pace.
Houston learned from its errors bringing in Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Jeff Green to pair alongside Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., and others last year. Washington and Detroit followed suit this past offseason.
In Toronto’s case, trading Pöltl leaves Toronto anchorless. Rookie, Ulrich Chomche, isn’t ready; Bruno Fernando is nowhere near a starter; Barnes, Kelly Olynyk, and Chris Boucher are all too undersized. A disproportionate amount of pressure is then placed upon other starters, at both ends. The bench shortens. A cycle of losing and frustration like to ensue.
Pöltl won’t keep Toronto out of the conference basement. He will help them stay competitive, giving his younger teammates better experiences and more opportunity to develop in-game.
There is, ultimately, no wrong answer on what to do with Pöltl. He will bring value to this team one way or another. All that matters is Toronto communicates its intentions and executes them accordingly.
Otherwise, the Pöltl era might end just as it began, with a whole lot of startled and angry people.
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