Self-Driving Cars: How Long Until Everyone Has One?

For many years, we’ve heard about the imminent arrival of self-driving cars. However, it seems like the companies that could make them keep pushing back the date, at least till everyone can purchase and afford one. It begs the question of how long society will go before self-driving cars become a part of everyone’s daily reality. 

The companies working on them don’t want to rush things. Already, some self-driving cars have caused crashes. Some law firms now advertise that they provide representation for victims of self-driving car accidents, and you have to assume we’ll hear more about such collisions as time passes. 

Let us take a moment to look at what the companies making self-driving cars have achieved up to this point and how long it might take for them to get to mass production and distribution. 

Do Self-Driving Cars Exist Now?

Maybe you haven’t seen any self-driving cars on the road yet, but they exist, at least in a sense. If you live on the West Coast, you probably stand the best chance of spotting one on a local road. However, it would be inaccurate to say that these vehicles have fully achieved the designation “self-driving.” 

The self-driving cars you might see on the roads in places like San Fransisco have several automated features, but they don’t have full autonomy. Several brands continue to make advancements in the field, though, making it seem likely that your dream of owning a fully self-driving car could materialize sooner rather than later. 

What Companies Make Them?

If you are looking at the various car companies that are out there and trying to make breakthroughs in this burgeoning market, you usually hear one of two names: Tesla or Waymo. You probably know about Tesla already. It is the company owned by controversial billionaire and current owner of X, Elon Musk. 

Waymo is a subsidiary of a company called Alphabet. The company started developing self-driving cars way back in 2009, and they continue to make gradual but notable advancements. 

As for Tesla, the company built some of the first electric cars to make it to mass production. You might also hear about a few other companies making waves in this market, including Uber Technologies, Microsoft-Volkswagen, and Cruise, by General Motors.

Some estimates put the number of companies working on self-driving cars at 250 or more. They’re all competing with each other, but none have cracked the code necessary to make fully self-driving vehicles available to the general public. 

What’s Holding Up Self-Driving Car Mass Production?

This brings us to the question of what’s holding up self-driving cars. It seems as though, with so many companies and so many brilliant scientific minds working on the problem, we should have them available very soon now. 

There is quite a lot standing in the way, though. The regulatory environment remains an issue, as do safety expectations. Some individuals believe critics and authorities want unfair safety standards for autonomous vehicles. Still, it’s hard to argue with wanting extraordinary safety measures from a multiple-ton machine that’s driving itself. 

Then, there’s the cost. Self-driving car technology, even when the companies currently working on it master it, will likely be prohibitively expensive, at least at the beginning. Getting around that could prove difficult.

There’s the road signage issue. Graffiti on road signs can confuse the cameras and radar systems on which self-driving cars rely. However, safety and regulation issues probably remain the two largest impediments that companies keep running into as they continue their quest to perfect this technology. 

Incidents keep happening with self-driving cars that set back the schedule for getting them on the market. Critics point to these cars making the wrong decisions in situations where they must make moral choices. A split-second decision that a human could make a self-driving car might not make correctly.  

Might We See Self-Driving Cars for Sale Soon?

As for when we could actually see self-driving vehicles or when we might have them for sale by multiple car companies, it is really anybody’s guess. The companies closest to making them keep moving the goalposts. 

The various technical challenges continue unabated. Despite notable advancements in recent years, self-driving technology keeps running into fundamental issues that, so far, even the brightest scientific minds can’t get past. 

On the road, a human driver must deal with unpredictable human behavior sometimes if another driver does something completely unexpected. Quick reflexes and decision-making ability might dictate what a human driver would do, but what about a nonhuman one? 

Adverse weather conditions sometimes factor into the equation as well. A skilled human driver knows not to drive at the speed limit if it is raining hard, snowing, etc. How would you teach a self-driving car about that? Navigating complex urban environments also presents a challenge with which self-driving car makers must contend. 

Some experts predict we could see the first truly “self-driving” cars by 2035. Others target 2040 as a more realistic date. However, if pressed, these same experts would admit they’re doing little more than guessing. 

The timeline could easily change, as it already has countless times over the past three decades or so. As early as the middle of the last century, some car companies conceived of self-driving vehicles and started working on the technology, but only in recent years have we seen any real progress.

While waiting for self-driving cars, today’s drivers can at least use new tech that’s a step in the right direction. Some cars now come with adaptive cruise control. That lets you take your hands off the wheel, though you must still pay close attention to changing traffic patterns around you. Others have automatic emergency braking that stops the car for you to prevent a forward collision if you stop paying attention for a moment and a vehicle hits the brakes right in front of you.   

It seems probable that self-driving cars will become available eventually, but for now, the world must remain patient. 

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