Multiple Oscar Experts switch to ‘Emilia Perez’ in predictions for Best Picture

Sean Baker‘s “Anora” is currently the Oscar front-runner for Best Picture, but there’s another major contender bubbling under the surface: “Emilia Perez.” In fact, four of the last five Expert journalists who have updated their predictions — Christopher Rosen (Gold Derby), Anne Thompson (IndieWire), Nikki Novak (Fandango) and Perri Nemiroff (Collider) — are predicting the Netflix musical to prevail. Scroll down to see a chart with a cross-section of their predictions. Click on that chart to see more Experts’ forecasts.

As of September 16, there are six Experts currently predicting “Emilia Perez,” the same number as are betting on “Anora.” A week earlier on September 9, four Experts were predicting “Emilia Perez.” A week before that on September 2, only two Experts were picking it. So the film has been on a steady upward trajectory. Following the title cartel leader as she seeks gender confirmation surgery, the film made its first appearance at the Cannes Film Festival this past May, where its female ensemble cast (Zoe Saldana, Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez and Adriana Paz) collectively won Best Actress. It then crossed the Atlantic to play at the Toronto International Film Festival and Telluride Film Festival, and it will soon be seen at the New York Film Festival.

The film is directed by French auteur Jacques Audiard, who hasn’t been nominated for an Oscar yet, but has had multiple projects in the awards conversation over the years and is due for recognition. He won two BAFTAs for Best Film Not in the English Language (2005’s “The Beat That My Heart Skipped,” 2009’s “A Prophet”). “A Prophet” also contended at the Oscars for Best Foreign Language Film. And his “Rust and Bone” earned star Marion Cotillard multiple Best Actress notices, though she just missed out on an Oscar nom,

Things are looking up for Audiard this time around. According to the combined predictions of all Gold Derby users, he ranks third for Best Director. And his actresses Saldana, Gascón and Gomez are all ranked as likely acting nominees. Do you agree that this will be an awards breakthrough for all involved?