Series Preview: Mets Face Big Test in Philadelphia

The New York Mets (80-66), against all odds, have an opportunity to make the playoffs. It is pretty remarkable to think this team was once 11 games under .500 at the beginning of June. But, if the Mets want to continue playing baseball into October, they will have to succeed against a few of the best teams out there. One of them is the Philadelphia Phillies (88-58), who currently have an eight-game lead at the top of the NL East. The Mets have lost five of their first seven games against the Phillies this year.

But, before we get to that, let’s look at what happened this week.

METS KEEP IT ROLLING WITH SERIES VICTORY IN TORONTO

Facing a team who has very little to play for this late in the season can be tricky. That proved to be the case earlier in the week, as the Mets had a tightly-contested three-game set with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets ultimately won two of three, and both of their victories came in comeback fashion. On Monday, they scored two runs in the eighth on a wild pitch and a passed ball before going on to win 3-2. On Wednesday, Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis had a no-hitter going into the ninth. That ended rather abruptly on a leadoff home run by Francisco Lindor, pushing the envelope as part of a six-run inning. The contest would finish 6-2, giving the Mets another series victory.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

With 16 games to go, the Mets currently occupy the third Wild Card spot in the National League. Entering the weekend, they sit one game ahead of the Atlanta Braves. Barring a drastic change, the last postseason spot is going to one of those two teams. The San Diego Padres or the Arizona Diamondbacks could go on a cold streak, but that appears unlikely at this moment in time. So, like any other weekend, this is an important one for the Mets. They have the challenge of facing the Phillies, while the Braves will be hosting the Los Angels Dodgers. It’s certainly a pair of big matchups that could shift the playoff picture in the National League.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Jose Quintana (8-9, 4.09 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (12-7, 3.41 ERA): Quintana picked a good time to hit his stride. The veteran has won each of his last two starts and has pitched to a 0.50 ERA over his last 18 innings. Quintana has allowed five runs in nine innings against the Phillies this season. Nola is in the midst of a good year, but his last start did not go well. He took the loss against the Miami Marlins last Saturday, giving up five runs (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.88 ERA in 15 starts at home this season.
• Saturday: Luis Severino (10-6, 3.74 ERA) vs. Kolby Allard (2-0, 3.50 ERA): Severino went through a rough patch towards the end of July and the beginning of August. Since Aug. 17, however, he is 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in 32 1/3 innings. More importantly, he has allowed no home runs in four of his five starts during that period. Allard has spent most of the year with Triple-A Leigh Valley. When he has pitched in the big leagues, he’s been rather productive. Allard made three starts in the month of August, surrendering two runs or less in all of them.
• Sunday: David Peterson (9-2, 2.98 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sánchez (10-9, 3.33 ERA): Peterson has been fantastic and represents one of the biggest surprises of the season for the Mets. Yet, he is coming off his worst start to date. Peterson allowed five runs (four earned) and eight hits across just 4 1/3 innings on Tuesday in Toronto. Like Peterson, Sánchez has surpassed the expectations of many in 2024. The first-time All-Star has pitched like one for a vast majority of the year and been a stalwart in the middle of the Phillies’ rotation. At home, Sánchez is 7-3 with a 2.11 ERA this year.

PREDICTION

This is an important series for both teams. The Mets need every win they can get and the Phillies are trying to finish as the No. 1 seed in the National League. Finding a way to win this series is going to be tough for the Mets, but I believe they will pull through. Did you expect any other response from me? Nola has great career numbers against the Mets, so the Phillies will take game one, but the Mets will come roaring back to win the final two games of the set. Great performances from Severino and Peterson to go along with improved offensive outputs will catapult them in the end.

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