Saoirse Ronan ‘Outruns’ herself to enter top 5 in Best Actress Oscar race

I wrote not too long ago about Saoirse Ronan‘s dual possible Oscar vehicles: “The Outrun” and “Blitz.” Well, there has been a shift in the momentum. “The Outrun” has started to outrun “Blitz” as Ronan’s better chance for Best Actress. Now that’s the film that puts her in the top five.

Based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users as of this writing, Ronan ranks fifth with 14/1 odds for “The Outrun” and seventh with 15/1 odds for “Blitz.” Nicole Kidman is the meat in a Saoirse sandwich, ranked sixth with 14/1 odds for “Babygirl.” It helps that many film journalists have already seen “The Outrun,” which premiered in January at the Sundance Film Festival. Her performance in it has been described as “tremendous,” “phenomenal” and “towering.”

And it also doesn’t hurt that its subject of substance abuse — Ronan plays a young woman who struggles to quit drinking — has proved successful for actors in the past. Multiple performers, from Best Actor winner Ray Milland in “The Lost Weekend” to recent surprise Best Actress nominee Andrea Riseborough in “To Leslie,” have been recognized for embodying the ravages of addiction.

As it stands, Ronan’s “Outrun” performance is predicted to win the Oscar by three Expert journalists, two Gold Derby Editors, one of our Top 24 Users and one of our All-Star Top 24. Compare that to “Blitz,” for which she’s supported by one Expert and one Editor. Mikey Madison is currently on top of the odds for her performance as the title character in “Anora,” but this race has been fluctuating dramatically as journos get a look at the upcoming contenders at the various fall festivals.

Speaking of which, “Blitz” is still awaiting its grand debut. That film doesn’t see the light of day until the BFI London Film Festival on October 9. Its theatrical opening comes less than a month later on November 1. And then it’ll be on Apple TV+ starting on November 22. So the pendulum could swing the other way in this race before all is said and done.