2024 Emmy Predictions: Best Variety Special Writing
This year, for the first time since 2012 and sixth time ever, the latest Academy Awards ceremony has received a Primetime Emmy nomination for its writing. Its potential win, which seems likely following its recent Creative Arts Emmys success, would be its first in this area since 1992, back when host Billy Crystal humorously celebrated such honorees as “The Silence of the Lambs” and “Beauty and the Beast.”
The 96th Oscars writing team are competing for this honor against four stand-up comics who released new specials between June and April. Among them is John Early (“Now More Than Ever”), who was just recognized here last year for the narrative sketch showcase “Would It Kill You to Laugh?”.
In order to make sense of this complex race, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 24 other Primetime Emmy categories by September 15.
“Alex Edelman: Just for Us” – Alex Edelman
The second televised special of Edelman’s career was directed by Alex Timbers, who shared in a 2023 Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special nomination for “John Mulaney: Baby J,” which happened to bring its star a writing win. Like that of fellow nominee Jacqueline Novak, Edelman’s special previously existed as an Off-Broadway show (which, unlike hers, eventually made it to Broadway).
“Jacqueline Novak: Get on Your Knees” – Jacqueline Novak
Novak adapted this Netflix special from her one-woman stage show of the same name, which earned her a 2020 Drama Desk Award nomination for Best Solo Performance. Coincidentally, the original version was respectively produced and directed by her current challengers Mike Birbiglia and Early, while the streaming one was helmed by five-time Emmy nominee Natasha Lyonne.
“John Early: Now More Than Ever” – John Early
After sharing said 2023 bid with Kate Berlant and Andrew DeYoung, Early has now earned solo recognition for writing his first HBO special. Its June 17 release date preceded those of the other candidates by at least five months, while its running time of just over one hour makes it the shortest program in the lineup by about 13 minutes.
“Mike Birbiglia: The Old Man & The Pool” – Mike Birbiglia
Birbiglia’s first Emmy nomination comes over a quarter century into his career, which has included half a dozen stand-up specials, the last three of which were distributed by Netflix. This marks his fourth such collaboration with director Seth Barrish, whose working relationship with the comedian began when they co-directed the 2012 film “Sleepwalk with Me.”
“96th Oscars” – Jimmy Kimmel et. al.
Included among the 24 people credited with this nomination are past Emmy winners Kimmel, Rory Albanese, and Tony Barbieri as well as former Oscars writing nominees Carol Leifer and Jon Macks. The March ceremony’s bids in six other categories (live variety special, directing, choreography, music direction, production design, and sound mixing) make it the only program in this lineup recognized in any area other than writing.
So, what will win the 2024 Emmy for Best Variety Special Writing? Although Edelman has the backing of more than 70% of the Gold Derby users predicting this race, he should watch out for the Oscars team given that their program already achieved surprise producing and expected directing victories at last weekend’s creative arts event. Its 22% support rate in this category is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it’s on track to grow larger before the main ceremony.
Edelman can take comfort in the fact that, since 2009, only one variety special – “Dave Chappelle: Sticks & Stones” – has swept all three of its assigned producing, directing, and writing categories. Given that that was a pre-recorded stand-up program, it’s unlikely that the 96th Oscars will fully replicate its success, especially since no awards show has been honored for its writing in over a dozen years. Kimmel and his co-writers may beat the odds, but it’s still much less risky to bet on a comedy special here.
PREDICT the 2024 Emmy winners through September 15
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