Emmy Experts Typing: What to do in that head-scratching Best Limited/TV Movie Supporting Actor race?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the very few categories keeping us up at night before Sunday’s ceremony.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’ve finally reached the end of the line. The 2024 Emmy Awards are Sunday night, meaning we can pack away our Emmy prognosticator hats for… 24 hours or so until we make our ridiculously early 2025 Emmy Award predictions next week. But before we get to next year’s race, we can take one last glance at this year’s contest. As in January, with the 2023 Emmys (2024 Edition), the 2024 Emmys have devolved into a trio of potential sweeps. “Shōgun,” “The Bear,” and “Baby Reindeer” are expected to play the parts of “Succession,” “The Bear,” and “Beef” on Sunday night – so much so that since we made our final (“final”) predictions earlier this week, “Shōgun” has added another category to the mix. As we discussed, it didn’t take long for the odds to shift in favor of Tadanobu Asano in the Best Drama Supporting Actor race, meaning the FX drama series that was once limited is now predicted to win all six of the above-the-line categories in which it’s nominated on Sunday night. (The only place “Shōgun” missed is Best Drama Supporting Actress, where Moeka Hoshi was a curious snub and part of the reason we accurately pointed out the show actually underperformed in its nominations haul.) We’re mostly in lockstep in our picks and I haven’t changed anything over the last few days. I’ve got “Shōgun” winning five of its six categories, losing writing to “Slow Horses.” I’ve got “The Bear” and “Hacks” splitting the top categories. And I’m still underpredicting “Baby Reindeer,” mostly out of stubbornness and spite (although I still have it winning four awards). Really, at this point, the one category that has me vexed, terribly vexed, is Best Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actor. I’ve got Jonathan Bailey there because he feels like Hydrox version of Paul Walter Hauser. You made a really strong case for Robert Downey Jr. there this week, and I was so convinced I almost pulled the switcheroo. But then there’s Tom Goodman-Hill, who plays a truly vile character on “Baby Reindeer” but has the benefit of being on “Baby Reindeer.” Seeing how the Emmy voters are so comfortable with sweeps, I’m almost ready to just put him in there and call it a day. But that also feels wrong: He’s not playing a major character and even though his character is a villain, it’s not one for which the show bothers to generate much empathy. I know you haven’t changed your mind at all, but do you feel more confident in RDJ now or is that category still giving you fits?

joyceeng: I have no effin’ idea who’s winning that, but like I said, I hope it’s one of the other five! We deserve it as an antidote to the impending sweeps. The seven nominees represent seven shows — when some of the shows could’ve nabbed multiple slots — so it feels like the actors branch was just apathetic toward this lot in general. Does that benefit TGH, who for sure has the most visibility from the most-watched series of the bunch? I never doubted his nomination, but winning feels trickier. I’ve always rejected the PWH comps because merely calling them villains is such a lazy read. Their characters were written completely differently and function completely differently in their stories — if anything, Jessica Gunning is more like PWH. If Goodman-Hill wins, it’s not because they like awarding evil characters. But like I said the other day, Goodman-Hill also doesn’t feel like a normal default pick since there was little buzz about his turn (no shade), and even if “Baby Reindeer” was the only show most people watched in this category, I’m not sure if they would automatically vote for the nominee from the one show they saw if they weren’t truly passionate about the performance. You might look elsewhere and ask buddies, “Hey, who did you vote for?” or your kid, “Hey, who should I vote for?” They should pull a Steven Soderbergh and announce this category last. I’m shocked you’re not gonna return to Billy Crudup after twisting yourself into so many knots that Auntie Anne’s would be proud to explain your former prediction by way of Nestor Carbonell. That feels like the only other “close” category for totally different reasons, but one that would also appear obvious in hindsight regardless of whether Crudup or Asano wins. And limited/TV movie actress is next in line, but the consensus is Jodie Foster, mostly because everyone is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ on her direct challenger. I have Naomi Watts behind her, you have Juno Temple, and Brie Larson is second in the odds.

SEE Experts slugfest: Our final 2024 Emmy winner predictions

Christopher Rosen: Foster feels fine to me because she checks multiple boxes (name-check, beloved actress, great performance, decorated show — take your pick) and, like you said, there isn’t really a consensus runner-up choice. This is why I’m still stuck on supporting actor. Goodman-Hill can win as part of a “Baby Reindeer” sweep, but there are several options there who have appealing narratives. I guess whoever wins between Bailey, Goodman-Hill and Downey, I wouldn’t be totally surprised. I can all but guarantee I make a change their before Sunday. I still think Carbonell won, in part, because of “The Morning Show” and his goodwill from appearing on that show, but I think being on “Shōgun” was ultimately the key part of his win. We haven’t typed about the comedy categories yet, and that’s probably because I have nothing to really say. “The Bear” should easily win Best Comedy Series and the actor awards. “Hacks” should take the actress side of things. And the shows can split writing/directing. Do you imagine any upsets there on Sunday?

joyceeng: It’s funny how so many of us were more wary of Liza Colón-Zayas than Meryl Streep earlier in the spring with a potential “Forks”-esque spotlight for the former in Season 3 of “The Bear.” She did get one in “Napkins,” but it didn’t reach the heights of “Forks” and the lukewarm response to the third season kind of made everyone hit pause on that. But now after the over-performance by “Only Murders in the Building” between its 21 nominations and its surprise win for score over “Shōgun,” people are warming up to Streep as the spoiler to Hannah Einbinder. I don’t think Creative Arts changed anything for the comedy races. “Hacks” didn’t win anything, but it’s like “Succession” in that they just aren’t the type of shows that would dominate craft categories. “Hacks” also didn’t win any Creative Arts Emmys for its first season and went on to win three at the main ceremony, so it can replicate that. “The Bear” was already first in the odds in writing, but lots of people jumped ship from “Hacks” to “The Bear” after Sunday. I’ve felt good about “Hacks” here even before Season 3 of “The Bear” dropped. I’m less certain about “Slow Horses” beating “Shōgun” in writing, but I’ve come this far with it, I might as well see it through.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Will there be guest acting upsets again?

Christopher Rosen: We assume the writers have taste. That’s what you’ve said and I’ll believe it. So if they do, then maybe “Slow Horses” wins. We also know the “Shōgun” pilot is weak compared to “Crimson Sky,” so maybe voters do too. If so, then maybe this isn’t a vote-split situation and maybe they just give this one to “Shōgun” too. I might switch here just because I’d like to go down with the herd and my preferred show — “Mr. & Mrs. Smith” — won’t win anyway. (I also think we could be overrating “Hacks” because we love it, but I don’t care.) Anyway, let’s end it here. Any last licks before these Emmys are a forgotten memory?

joyceeng: This one feels even more predictable than the last ceremony. Last time, there was way more panic after Creative Arts and a lot more switching. I’m not gonna say everyone learned their lesson to not overreact, but there have been consensus picks in most of these categories for a while. Looking forward to the complaints about how “The Bear” is not a comedy though. Can’t hear that enough!

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