Because I Got Kai

Every elite team needs to rely on a certain amount of fluidity in their starting line-ups, especially as the demands of international football and continental competitions continue to expand. The idea of a ‘best eleven’ or any sort of fixity in this respect is becoming a relic of the past. That probably changes a little in the final furlong of the season after the March international break.

At that point, if fitness permits, challenging teams tend to favour stability as the finishing tape moves into view. However, any elite team will still have a core of players who will start pretty much every game that they are fit for. At Arsenal, I would pitch those outfield players as Saliba, Gabriel, White, Rice, Odegaard, Saka and Havertz, which is 70% of the outfield team. That is quite a high amount.

As Timber and Calafiori become more assimilated, White and Gabriel might move into a slightly more fluid category. Two years ago, Jesus and Zinchenko would have featured in the untouchable category but have since moved down a strata to ‘high level squad players’. The signing of Mikel Merino might eventually affect change elsewhere too.

The fact is that most of the core I have identified stayed fit for the majority of last season. While Jesus and Zinchenko have endured a relegation of sorts, Kai Havertz has certainly been ‘promoted’ in terms of his status since the turn of the year. Clearly there was an acclimatisation process in the early months of last season as the player was integrated into the team and continued to wrestle with confidence issues incurred during his spell at Chelsea.

He started and played the full 90 minutes in the opening two Premier League games, before being subbed in the 55th and 76th minutes of matches three and four. Matches five and six saw him start on the bench, as he did on match days eight and nine. He started eight of the first 14 Premier League matches of last season, completing the full game on four of those occasions.

There is a clear turnaround after Brentford away in late November. He is only given 12 minutes from the bench as Arsenal chase a late winner and he provides it with a back post header, securing a precious three points in a tough away fixture. It’s not enough to earn him a start at home to Wolves the following week, but from that point he starts 23 of the remaining 24 league games (Nottingham Forest away in January is his only exception).

Gabriel Jesus starts and scores twice in the match at Forest but aggravates a knee injury in the process, meaning Havertz is needed at upfront and this is really his second ‘click’ moment and the point at which he becomes truly indispensable. Emile Smith Rowe started in the ‘left eight’ position ahead of Havertz at Forest.

There was something of a theme in games away from home against relegation threatened opponents of starting more traditionally creative types in that position last season. Fabio Vieira started ahead of Havertz at Goodison Park in September. Given the average height of the Everton back line is about 7 foot 4 inches, Arteta saw little value in Havertz’s height and opted for a wispy playmaker in Vieira instead. Under Nuno Espirito Santo, Forest were always like to adopt a low defensive block that would stop just short of lining up their entire team on the goal line. A more creative eight in Smith Rowe was seen as preferable to Havertz in that game.

Likewise at Brentford in November, Trossard started in the midfield position ahead of Havertz. Again, likely because Brentford play with a back five against the elite opponents and they also have centre-halves who could just as easily be basketball players. Havertz’s height and how he uses it has been one of the German’s key features as far as Arteta is concerned and explains why the manager likes to use him upfront.

The absences of Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino (as well as the shorter-term absence of Declan Rice for Sunday) mean that Arteta is almost certainly going to have to drop Havertz back into midfield for the upcoming period. There is going to be a sense of unfamiliarity in that area due to absences, so anything Arteta can do to make that zone feel more familiar and certain will surely be prioritised.

In Gabriel Jesus (if fit) and Leandro Trossard, Havertz’s centre-forward post can be covered while he is seconded to midfield. Havertz has become an ‘untouchable’ as a centre-forward. Midfield Havertz has not been a failure by any means, but he has not made himself an indispensable midfielder and the signing of Mikel Merino illustrates this. It would be unusual to spend so much money on a 28-year-old who plays in that position if Arteta did not primarily see Havertz as a striker now.

For Sunday, I suspect that Arteta will opt for a conservative Jorginho and Partey double pivot with Havertz ahead of them as a more traditional 10. There is precedent for Havertz playing off Trossard with the Belgian as a false 9 to good effect. In the late winter months, Kai started in midfield in a fluid combination with Trossard for the 6-0 win at West Ham and the 5-0 win at Burnley.

In the 2-1 home victory over Brentford in March, Havertz started as the centre-forward but moved back into midfield late on as Arsenal searched for the winner. He duly provided it, crashing the penalty area from a deeper position to head home a Ben White cross. He also started the April home defeat against Aston Villa in a deeper role. So it isn’t accurate that Havertz has only operated and been effective as a striker for Arsenal.

However, shorn of Odegaard, I suspect he will move into that right eight role; with Rice in the left eight role and we haven’t seen him there yet. He will certainly offer different qualities to Odegaard, though I think he can match the captain’s off-ball effort. The partnership between Odegaard and Saka is Arsenal’s most used creative avenue.

Personally, I have very few concerns about Saka ‘needing’ Odegaard next to him to thrive, however. It is an excellent partnership between him and the captain but I think Saka to be such an exceptional individual that I think his combination with Odegaard is complementary as opposed to transformative for him. I also think there is value in Havertz hovering closer to Saka and picking up any ‘bits and pieces’ that come his way and it may mean he is marked less closely.

The biggest loss is probably that Havertz is a direct beneficiary of Saka’s back post crossing and Arsenal will lose that option if the pair are stationed on the same side. However these new connections arise, Kai Havertz becomes an even more crucial player in the coming weeks and he will likely have to demonstrate his importance in a slightly different role.

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