7 things that need to happen for the Warriors to contend this year

Will they happen? Stay tuned.

The Golden State Warriors will not open the 2024-25 NBA season as contenders. That much should be abundantly clear after they limped their way into the 10th seed in the Western Conference, were obliterated and embarrassed by the Sacramento Kings in their lone postseason game, and then started the offseason by losing their second-best scorer and their sixth man.

They recouped some of those losses with a series of laudable moves, but in the absence of landing a big fish — try as they might have for Lauri Markkanen and Paul George — the Warriors didn’t do enough to regain contender status.

Not yet, at least. No one viewed the Warriors as contenders when the 2014-15 season began, and they marched to a dynasty-kickstarting championship. Few people thought the Dubs were contenders when the 2021-22 season got underway, yet there they were in June, hoisting a fourth title above their heads.

That’s where the Warriors sit entering the upcoming season, which begins in just a month and a half. No one outside of those wearing suspiciously-tinted glasses would smack the “contender” label on Golden State, but they’re close enough to contention that, with some convincing wins, they could emerge as worthy title challengers by the time Game No. 83 makes its way around.

So that’s the hope. But it’s never easy. Here are seven things that need to happen if the Dubs want to become genuine contenders this season, though it’s worth noting that a few of these things could be negated by an (admittedly unlikely) blockbuster trade. I’m assuming that one won’t happen, but you just never know.

An MVP-level season from Steph Curry

No one expects Curry to retire with more than the two MVPs he already has on his mantle. And truthfully, him winning another MVP this year might be a bad thing, since it might signal that the Warriors are overly reliant on him.

But there’s a big difference between being a top-five player and a top-15 player, and where Curry lands on that spectrum will heavily influence the season. Curry entered the All-Star break last season averaging 28.0 points per game, while shooting 42.1% from three-point range. After the break, however, those numbers dipped to 23.1 and 37.9%.

As such, Curry’s all-around metrics dipped from where we’ve grown accustomed to seeing him. By Estimated Plus-Minus, widely considered the top all-in-one metric in the NBA, Curry was the 12th-best player in the league last season. No one would be even remotely disappointed if Curry had another such season this year ... but the Warriors aren’t good enough to win a title with their best player being a star .... he needs to be a superstar.

A motivated, rejuvenated, and in-control Draymond Green

“You’ll only go as far as your best player takes you” might be the mantra in the NBA, but “you’ll only go as far as your second-best player takes you” is pretty darn accurate too. And make no mistake: Green is still emphatically the team’s second-best player.

Similar to Curry, what the Warriors need from Green is something in between the All-World player that he once was, and what we saw last year. It starts with being in control, and not getting unnecessarily violent like last year. If he can stay on the court, motivated, and in top shape, he can play the whole year as the team’s quarterback, emotional leader, and defensive ace. The Dubs need all three of those things.

A leap from Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski

Kuminga and Podziemski both figure to have huge roles on the Warriors this year. In fact, I’d argue that they’re the two most important players (and the two best players) after Curry and Green.

But unlike with Curry and Green, Kuminga and Podziemski are at a stage in their career where their best days are ahead of them, not behind them. And either player getting significantly closer to their best days would be huge for the Warriors.

Kuminga spent much of last year playing at an All-Star level, while Podziemski spent much of his rookie campaign making it abundantly clear that he has All-Star potential. If both of these electric young players are good role players in 2024-25, then the Warriors will likely also be good. But if one or both of them is great, well ... the Warriors will have a chance to be, too.

Defensive improvement from Trayce Jackson-Davis (or...)

TJD worked his way from late second-round pick to electric starter all in one season. And while the Warriors have a lot of different options for a starting lineup this year, he’s the incumbent starting five, and he’ll stay that until announced otherwise.

The athleticism, finesse around the rim, basketball IQ, and rim-rolling ability of Jackson-Davis can completely transform the offense. But in order for that to play for 30 minutes a night, he’ll have to show that he can hold it down defensively against the best centers in the world.

TJD wasn’t bad defensively as a rookie, and he showed tons of potential. But he did get eaten up in a few matchups, especially against All-Star bigs.

While that’s the most likely way that the Warriors take a leap forward from the center position, there are other options, too. We know that Kevon Looney can be a defensive anchor, and he could play his way back into a starting role with a little bit more offense ... which he has apparently been working hard on.

And don’t forget about this year’s late second-round pick, center Quinten Post: he’s only a month younger than TJD, he’s a legit seven-feet, he has strong defensive potential, and he has a dynamic three-point shot.

A return to form for Andrew Wiggins

There’s simply no way to sugarcoat it: Wiggins had a disastrous 2023-24 season. The fall-off from his first few years with the Dubs was extreme. His year-over-year stats dropped from 17.1 points per game to 13.2; from 2.3 assists per game to 1.7; from 39.6% shooting from deep to 35.8%; from 53.0% shooting on twos to 49.8%; and from a 56.4% true-shooting percentage to 54.4%.

But that wasn’t even most damning. The two biggest issues in Wiggins’ game were that he went from locking up Jayson Tatum in the NBA Finals to being a poor defensive player; and that he was unplayable alongside Kuminga. As a result, he finished 287th in the NBA in Estimated Plus-Minus (one of the worst marks in the league among players with regular playing time), and was removed from the starting lineup for a stretch of time.

The Warriors need the old Wiggins back. Even if it’s in a diminished role, they need the Wiggins who is a defensive asset, and an aggressive, semi-reliable scorer. Unless they flip him for such a player, it’s hard to imagine them getting back to the top of the mountain without his strong contributions.

Role players fitting in

The Warriors have big holes in the roster to fill with the departures of Klay Thompson and Chris Paul. But count me among those who like the choices they made in filling those holes: Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson are quality veterans who sure look like they’ll fit in wonderfully with the system.

And while the Dubs have had many additions fit that bill and then shine, they’ve also had their fair share of duds. I thought Kelly Oubre Jr., was a brilliant fit in the system, and also loved what Omri Casspi, Jonas Jerebko, and Nick Young figured to bring to the team.

Sometimes you just don’t know until you get a player on the court, running the plays, and trying to get in sync with their teammates. For the Warriors to contend this year, that trio will need to show that Mike Dunleavy Jr. is pressing the right buttons, and identifying players that will work well in Golden State’s system.

Good health and good luck

The simple fact remains: every championship team gets lucky. They have their best players available in the biggest moments, and the breaks go their way more often than not. It’s not an excuse for when you lose, but it’s certainly part of the story when you win.

Like 29 other teams, the Warriors will need their fair share of luck to count this as a successful season.