How should the Royals set their postseason rotation?

Matt Quatraro has some strong options.

On Sunday afternoon, Michael Wacha took the mound in Kansas City with a chance at a sweep over the Minnesota Twins. Pitching to a tight strike zone from home plate umpire Shane Livensparger, Wacha threw a gem, punching out seven Twins batters across seven scoreless innings. The Royals completed the sweep — an emphatic victory against a division rival that pushes the Royals 2.5 games ahead of the Twins in the postseason race and still just three games behind Cleveland at the top of the AL Central. The sweep was fueled by starting pitching, with Cole Ragans, Alec Marsh, and Wacha combining for 18 innings with just two runs allowed.

With a postseason appearance all but assured at this point, the Royals will have some decisions to make regarding their starting rotation. The rotation has been the backbone of this team. Kansas City starters have pitched the second-most innings in the majors (824) and are second in ERA (3.57) and fourth in FIP (3.69). In spite of the issues we have seen with the offense and the bullpen, the starting pitching, along with the potential for Bobby Witt Jr. to go nuclear for a week, will make the Royals a tough out in the postseason.

A recurring theme of recent postseasons has been the lack of starting pitching on many teams. Last year’s Dodgers ran out a rotation of an injured Clayton Kershaw, a rookie Bobby Miller, and Lance Lynn, who had a 5.73 ERA in the regular season. Those three combined to allow 13 runs in 4.2 innings as the Dodgers were swept by Arizona. Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish had a decent Game One start in the ALDS last year, but Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer got shelled, combining for 11 runs allowed with neither completing the second inning as the Orioles were swept by the Rangers. Atlanta was the best team in baseball last year, but their starting staff was so thin that they had to start Bryce Elder in Game Three of the NLDS. With no viable fourth starter, they turned to Spencer Strider on short rest. He allowed three runs and they were eliminated by the Phillies.

Those Phillies have gone 18-11 in the last two postseasons largely thanks to their starting staff. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suárez make a formidable top three, with the trio combining for a 2.63 ERA in 147.1 innings across the last two postseasons. Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, and Cristian Javier have been rotation anchors that have keyed the later stages of Houston’s ongoing streak of ALCS appearances. Having a trustworthy fourth starter in the postseason is a luxury that most teams simply don’t have. Teams have increasingly been throwing bullpen games in the postseason rather than exposing their fourth starter.

Due to both injury luck and strong performances, the Royals rotation runs deep with options. This depth will be very handy should they advance to the ALDS, but most likely the team will need to get through a best-of-three Wild Card series first. Thus Matt Quatraro and the Royals have some tough decisions to make on how to line up their rotation. This staff has not set a postseason rotation before, so it will be interesting to see how they rank their own arms. Do they ride the hot hand or consider the full body of work over the season? Let’s evaluate who will likely be in Kansas City’s postseason rotation, ranked in order of how I would set it were it my decision to make.

1: Cole Ragans

Though he doesn’t lead the team in ERA or innings, Ragans is the clear ace of this team. He is jockeying with presumptive AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal at the top of the strikeout leaderboard, and his ability to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard give him the potential to dominate any given game. The concern here would be that Ragans has blown past his career high in innings pitched and may be running out of gas — he had a 4.23 ERA in eight starts in the second half before throwing six scoreless against Minnesota this weekend. The other realistic candidate for game one starter also has workload concerns so that’s a moot point as long as both are healthy once the postseason starts.

The most likely matchup is either Baltimore or the Yankees. The Yankees are the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching with a 123 wRC+ but are 13th at 105 against lefties. The Orioles, meanwhile, are nearly equal (114 and 115) against both sides. Both teams’ parks have historically been considered hitter-friendly, but both Yankee Stadium and Oriole Park have played roughly neutral both this season and over the last three years. Should Kansas City drop to the third wild card they would play against Houston, who don’t have much of a platoon split and have a ballpark that, like Yankee Stadium, has a short porch but overall plays neutral.

There’s no need to get cute here. Ragans was the Opening Day starter for a reason and he has done nothing this season to lose his spot at the top of the rotation.

2: Seth Lugo

This is the other pitcher with a case to start game one. 2024 has been a career year for Lugo as he’s posted a 3.05 ERA in his second full season as a starter. Much like Ragans, he has had some second-half struggles, with a 5.20 ERA in his first seven starts after the All-Star break before allowing one run in seven innings in each of his last two starts. Lugo is already 40 innings past his 2023 workload and he’ll likely have about 200 innings under his belt by the beginning of postseason play.

There’s a case to be made to start Lugo over Ragans in game one. Lugo is a veteran (though he’s only pitched two more postseason innings in his career than Ragans), throws more strikes, and has a deeper repertoire to work with should one of his pitches not be working on a given day. He also has consistently worked deeper into games, though it’s hard to say how relevant that is in an era when starters rarely pitch deep into postseason games. In the sixth inning of a close game, would Quatraro let the top of Baltimore or New York’s order get a third look at Lugo, or would he take his chances with Kansas City’s mystery box of a bullpen?

I’d go with Ragans-Lugo in that order but I don’t have a strong argument against flipping it other than I’d rather take my chances with the pitcher that strikes more batters out. Either way the Royals should quite like their chances of winning at least one of those games with those two guys pitching. The third spot is where a difficult decision needs to be made.

3: Brady Singer

With the season on the line in a potential Wild Card game three, do you turn to Brady Singer or Michael Wacha? It is remarkable just how similar their regular season stats are:

There is very little separation between these two guys and there is a case to be made for both. For Singer, his ability to keep the ball in the yard is a big deal in the postseason. His solid groundball rate is very useful for games in smaller ballparks than Kauffman Stadium and he misses more bats than Wacha. Singer has also pitched a similar number of innings so far this year as in the last two, so he should theoretically be as fresh as one could hope to be following a full season of work.

Wacha, meanwhile, has 38 postseason innings under his belt, though 30.2 of those came in his tremendous 2013 run as a rookie. His three postseason outings since have not gone well. He’s much better than Singer at limiting hard contact, with a 33.0% hard-hit rate against versus 40.2% for Singer. Wacha has been outstanding since returning from the IL on June 22, with a 2.60 ERA in 14 starts since. He is fifth in the AL in innings pitched and ERA in that span. He’s also been less likely to really let a game get away from him, with just four starts allowing four or more earned runs versus seven for Singer.

I’m going with Singer here, primarily due to his superior whiff and groundball rates. That said, Wacha is a capable option here as well and I would be neither surprised nor upset to see him start a game three.

4: Michael Wacha

See above.

Other options: Alec Marsh, Michael Lorenzen

Marsh has been Kansas City’s fifth starter when healthy and he’s pitched like it, rocking a 4.66 ERA on the season. He’s clearly behind the other four starters and is too inefficient to count on in the postseason. His stuff could play up in shorter bullpen stints, though I’m a bit worried about using him there given his susceptibility to home runs.

Lorenzen had a sterling 1.85 ERA in five starts after arriving in Kansas City before landing on the IL. That ERA is smoke and mirrors as he holds pedestrian strikeout and walk rates, though he has been better at limiting hard contact since arriving. He may have been able to build a case for himself to start with more time, but the fact that he’s currently on the IL makes it a near certainty that he’s ticketed for postseason relief work.

All stats are through games played through September 9.