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Daily mortgage rates for Sept. 11 2024: Rates drop for 30-year, 15-year terms in advance of key inflation readings

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AOL.com 

Average mortgage rates dropped by double digits as of Wednesday, September 11, 2024, as the market awaits key inflation data for August that's expected to show further progress toward the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation goal, starting with consumer inflation readings today and followed by wholesale inflation tomorrow. The Fed is expected to announce a quarter-point cut to its benchmark interest rate — the first in four years — at the conclusion of its policy-setting meeting next Wednesday.

The current average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.30% for purchase and 6.32% for refinance — down 14 basis points from 6.44% for purchase and 12 basis points from 6.44% for refinance last Wednesday. Rates for a 15-year mortgage stand at an average 5.64% for purchase and 5.68% for refinance, down 23 basis points from 5.87% for purchase and 23 basis points from 5.91% for refinance this time last week. The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 6.43%.

Purchase rates for Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024

  • 30-year fixed rate — 6.30%

  • 20-year fixed rate — 6.08%

  • 15-year fixed rate — 5.64%

  • 10-year fixed rate — 5.67%

  • 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 5.88%

  • 30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.59%

  • 30-year fixed VA rate — 6.73%

  • 30-year fixed jumbo rate — 6.43%

Refinance rates for Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024

  • 30-year fixed rate — 6.32%

  • 20-year fixed rate — 6.15%

  • 15-year fixed rate — 5.68%

  • 10-year fixed rate — 5.72%

  • 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 5.87%

  • 30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.78%

  • 30-year fixed VA rate — 7.57%

  • 30-year fixed jumbo rate — 6.35%

Source: Bankrate lender survey

Freddie Mac reports an average 6.35% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, unchanged from last week's average 6.35%, according to its weekly Prime Mortgage Market Survey of nationwide lenders published on September 5, 2024. The fixed rate for a 15-year mortgage is 5.47%, down 4 basis points from last week's average 5.51%. These figures are lower than a year ago, when rates averaged 7.12% for a 30-year term and 6.52% for a 15-year term.

"Mortgage rates remained flat this week as markets await the release of the highly anticipated August jobs report,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, of the latest data. “Even though rates have come down over the summer, home sales have been lackluster. On the refinance side however, homeowners who bought in recent years are taking advantage of declining mortgage rates in order to lower their monthly payments."

Freddie Mac updates its Prime Mortgage Market Survey data weekly on Thursdays at noon ET.

Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you're interested in and other terms of the loan you're requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.

Because mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, it's best to lock in a rate when you're comfortable with the overall conditions of your mortgage or home loan.

Mortgage lenders keep a close eye on the benchmark federal funds target interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, the U.S.'s central bank. Called the Fed rate, it's the benchmark that affects rates on deposit accounts, loans and other financial products. Typically, as the fed rate rises, so do APYs on savings products like CDs, high-yield savings accounts, money market accounts and home equity loans. Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed rate as closely, but they do reflect the same elements the Fed evaluates when making decisions on the benchmark — especially inflation — which means as the Fed rate increases, mortgage rates also tend to rise.

The Federal Reserve increased the target interest rate 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023 in an effort to combat the highest inflation in four decades coming out of the pandemic.

July 31, 2024: Fed holds benchmark rate unchanged for eighth — and likely final — time

At the conclusion of its fifth rate-setting policy meeting of 2024 on July 31, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds target interest rate at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.50% for an eighth straight time since July 2023.

In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Reserve said "risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance,” acknowledging “there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective,” but reiterated from its June statement that its rate-setting committee "does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent."

Economists estimate at least one rate cut this year — from 25 to 50 basis points — with an additional four cuts anticipated in 2025.

It's widely expected the Federal Reserve will announce the first of anticipated cuts to the federal funds rate at its next policy meeting on September 17 and September 18, 2024 — its first rate cut in four years. In question is how low the Fed will go: whether 25 basis points or 50 basis points. The CME FedWatch Tool, which measures market expectations for Fed fund rate changes, projects a 69% chance the Fed will cut rates to a range of 5.00% to 5.25%, with a 31% chance that the Fed will cut rates to a range of 4.75% to 5.00%.

Signs of cooling inflation have bolstered a September cut prediction, with economic data indicating a continued decline from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to rates that have ranged from 3% and 4% since May 2023. Economists have kept a close eye on inflation reports amid speculation as to the timing of Fed rate cuts.

Good news supporting slowing inflation came from the one-two punch of twin inflation reports in mid-August. The producer price index data released on August 13 reported a mild increase in wholesale prices — or the prices manufacturers pay to producers of goods and services — in July, with wholesale prices increasing 2.2% for the 12 months ending in July, slowing as expected from 2.7% in June, which at the time was the largest year-over-year gain since March 2023 and likely influenced an already cautious Fed to skip cutting the rate earlier. The consumer price index released on August 14 showed consumer prices rose 2.9% year over year in July, down from 3% in June — the first time the index has come in under 3% in three years. Fresh CPI data is due on September 11, followed by PPI data on September 12, less than a week before the Fed meets.

An eagerly awaited jobs report released September 6 showed softer job growth in August but also a rise in hiring, putting the unemployment rate at 4.2%, down from 4.3% in July. An August 21 revision to employment data indicated the labor market may have been cooling before initially thought, with 818,000 fewer jobs created from April 2023 through March 2024, stoking recession fears. The latest data allays those concerns and keeps the Fed on track with what experts say will be a quarter-point rate cut.

In prepared remarks for his keynote at the Fed's annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 24, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the "time has come" for the Fed to begin reducing interest rates, noting "there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market" and making it more likely a cut is to come in September.

The Powell-led rate-setting panel will announce a rate decision at the conclusion of its meeting on September 18, 2024, at 2 p.m. ET.

Dig deeper: When’s the next Federal Reserve meeting? What to expect — and how it affects your finances

On April 23, a judge granted preliminary approval to a $418 million antitrust settlement with the National Association of Realtors that ends customary real estate broker commissions of up to 6% of a home’s purchase price. Effective August 17, real estate agents are required to provide interested buyers with a representation agreement before touring a home. This agreement is a new step designed to introduce transparency into the buyer's relationship with the agent, the agent's fees and how those fees are paid. The settlement isn’t expected to affect mortgage rates, yet it paves the way for consumers to negotiate what they pay for an agent’s services, saving them money in the long run.

The difference of even half a percentage point on your interest rate can save you hundreds of dollars a month and thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage, but the mortgage rate you're ultimately offered depends on the mortgage you're interested in, payments you're willing to pay up front and your overall financial health.

  • Your credit score. Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you're likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates.

  • Your down payment. The more money you can put down toward your home, the better it benefits your interest rate. Paying at least 20% of your home's purchase price up front generally results in a lower interest rate — and you can avoid mortgage insurance, which increases your total cost.

  • Your loan term. While the 30-year mortgage remains a popular way for Americans to purchase homes, you can find terms of 20 years, 15 years and 10 years. Shorter loan terms usually come with lower interest rates, though with higher monthly payments. Longer mortgage terms can result in smaller monthly payments, though you'll pay higher total interest over the life of your loan.

  • Interest rate type. Mortgage rates come with two basic types of rates — fixed and variable. Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) often start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.

Dig deeper

Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.

Refinancing is a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.

An adjustable-rate mortgage — commonly called an ARM — is a type of home loan with a variable rate. Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, which locks in an interest rate and predictable payments that apply over the full loan term, an ARM starts at an initial fixed rate for a period of three years or longer, after which it adjusts to a higher rate and then further adjusts periodically over the remaining life of the loan.

For a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage, the first number indicates the number of years at the fixed rate — or five years — and the second number indicates the rate at which the mortgage rate readjusts after — in this case, each year or annually.

Mortgage rates are influenced by complicated factors like inflation, employment rates, the bond market and the overall economy. While the Federal Reserve doesn't set mortgage rates, this central bank of the U.S. sets benchmark rates that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts.

It's not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders. For instance, many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for "mortgage points" — upfront fees you pay to your lender. A mortgage point could cost 1% of your mortgage amount, which means about $5,000 on a $500,000 home loan, with each point lowering your interest rate by about 0.25%, depending on your lender and loan.

Yes. If it’s cash you’re after to pay for home renovations, pay off high-interest credit card debt or cover an emergency, tapping into your home’s value is a way to unlock lower rates without refinancing — and without losing your low-rate mortgage. You typically need good to excellent credit and to have built enough equity in your home. Learn how to get equity out of your home as rates come down.

Editor's note: Rates shown are as of Wednesday, September 11 2024, at 6:30 a.m. ET. APYs and promotional rates for some products can vary by region and are subject to change.