Mariners can’t hit magic number, drop game to Padres 7-3

Too many runs given up by the pitching and not enough scored by the offense add up to another Mariners loss

It’s pretty obvious that scoring more runs in baseball = more wins, but because of how the Mariners are set up—strong and stingy pitching backed by offense that’s, more often than not, just stingy—their numbers are a little more outsized than most: the Mariners are 48-4, or a .923 winning percentage, when they score at least five runs in a game. Tonight they came two runs short of that magic number despite a herculean effort against Yu Darvish and the Padres: they worked four walks, only struck out nine times (single digits, wooo!), and seven of the nine starters had at least one hit en route to a 10-hit night (double digits, wooo!).

Unfortunately, those two that didn’t get hits were their two-hole and four-hole hitters, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena, who went 0-for-9 with four strikeouts and no walks between them. Between that and some plain bad sequencing luck, the Mariners couldn’t reach the promised land of five runs—which might be a good thing for those of us who like that outsized win percentage, because the pitching was unusually leaky tonight, with starter George Kirby giving up five runs. That combined seven runs given up by the pitching breaks a streak of not allowing more than six runs at home in a loss since May 11, when they lost to the A’s 1-8.

Here’s the good part: the Mariners got out to an early lead thanks to Cal Raleigh, who rocketed this slider way out to right field with what seemed like a mere flick of his wrist. I hope when they build the Cal Statue they get the one-handed finish right. (Please do not joke in the comments about how you’re sure the Yankees have good statue people or whatever, I have already made this joke to myself because I am also brain-poisoned by the Seattle Mariners and I assure you everyone else has as well).

Our Sweet Calboy now has second place all to himself for homers by a catcher in their first four MLB seasons with 89; only Hall-of-Famer Mike Piazza has more, with 92. He also became just the 12th catcher in MLB history with multiple 30+ home run seasons. More relevantly to Mariners fans, he also passed Dan Wilson tonight for most home runs by a Mariners catcher, now trailing only Mike Zunino (95).

But wait there’s more! Cal’s twin of Gentle Giantness Luke Raley is as big and strong as his team brother, but also possesses speed that Cal does not have, meaning sometimes he attempts to get on base with a bunt, because he’s a little sneaky so-and-so like that. During this at-bat our big boy Luke tried twice to bunt, only to be served unbuntable pitches at his ankles. Fine then, thought our big beautiful galoot, I shall simply do as the t-shirt instructs and hit a dinger instead:

Unfortunately, the hard work of these two fine fellows was erased quickly in the third inning. George Kirby was unable to put away eight-hole hitter Donovan Solano, who saw six pitches before getting a curveball he could just bloop into the Bermuda Triangle area in right field. Two batters later, Luis Arraez got a juicy fastball on the plate and did what he does, because he is a video game character whose ‘contact” slider is turned up to 11. Fernando Tatís Jr. then jumped on the first pitch he saw from Kirby, demolishing a first-pitch fastball right in the middle of the plate for a crushing three-run home run.

The Mariners scuffled to get anything else going off Yu Darvish; they had a chance in the bottom of the third to answer back with two on and none out, but the top of the lineup made three consecutive outs, with Julio and Randy both getting punched out looking; in the fourth, Jorge Polanco, who had grounded into a double play earlier, quelling another scoring opportunity, squandered his own hit trying to stretch a single into a double. In the fifth, Victor Robles—who had already reached on a bunt base hit in the third—hit a two-out double and stole third, because the man loves to create his own offense, but was left standing there when Julio grounded out on a Darvish splitter. On Keka and Kikito’s night, no less!

George Kirby opened the sixth inning at about 90 pitches—Darvish, for comparison, was at a trim 63—and led off by giving up a double to Profar, followed by leaving a fastball over the plate for Manny Machado that he absolutely destroyed, delighting the many, many Padres fans in attendance and ending George Kirby’s night, and probably the lifespan of several pieces of dugout furniture.

With the Padres lead out to 5-2, the Padres opted to rest Darvish, who is still working his way back from a lengthy IL stint, and turn to their powerful bullpen. Jeremiah Estrada needed just a half-dozen pitches to put away the Mariners in the bottom of the sixth; meanwhile, the Padres stretched their lead to 7-2 against Austin Voth, whose struggles haven’t abated as the weather has gotten cooler. To be fair, Voth was so close to getting out of a jam: he walked the first batter of the inning, which is always a no-no but especially when it’s the eight-hole hitter, struck out Higashioka swinging, and then Arraez got his customary single before Voth struck out Tatís Jr. for the second out of the inning. But he then undid that goodwill by committing the cardinal sin of issuing a two-out walk, walking Profar on four straight pitches and bringing up Manny Machado with the bases juiced—who of course came through with a two-run single. jumping on a first-pitch cutter right in the middle of the plate. Two-out run production with the bases loaded, the mind boggles.

The Mariners had a chance to really take the game back in the seventh, scratching a run off trade deadline acquisition Tanner Scott and loading the bases against him thanks to a hard-fought at-bat by Victor Robles, who walked to get on base for the third time tonight (he’d end his night with yet another single. We love our little battery pack.) But with one out—pinch-hitter Dylan Moore, brought in to face the lefty Scott, struck out—new pitcher Jason Adam got Julio Rodríguez to ground into an inning-ending double play. See above re: two-out run production.

It’s hard to get too bent out of shape about a loss where the pitching was unusually porous (May 11th! What a streak!) and the offense did create traffic; lots of good teams lose games like this, when ineffectiveness and luck combine in a very untasty sandwich. But it’s also so frustrating that the team has run out of time, effectively, to turn this thing around—the Astros suffered a rare loss tonight, and the Mariners again couldn’t capitalize—when if they’d been having these kinds of at-bats all year, maybe the story of the season reads much differently. Five runs is a lot of offense, but it’s not some pie-in-the-sky number: 13 MLB games today saw teams score five runs or more, or a little over 40%. The Mariners have only scored five runs or more in about a third of their games this season. With more processes like tonight—keeping the strikeouts in the single digits, even against a tough pitcher like Darvish; working walks and keeping pressure on the pitcher in almost every inning—who knows how different the season looks.