Oscar odds update: ‘The Brutalist’ soars in several races, including Best Picture, after Venice premiere

“The Brutalist” had its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival on September 1, and ever since it has been flying high in our Oscar odds based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. The film now ranks among the top 10 likely contenders for Best Picture, and it looks like more nominations than that could be in the offing. Make or update your Oscar predictions here.

The epic film chronicles the life of a Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor, László Tóth (Adrien Brody), who travels to America for a better life. The film earned raves (89 on MetaCritic, 97% on Rotten Tomatoes), with critics describing the film as “monumental,” “classic” and “a major work of art.” Coming off that successful debut, the film ranks ninth on our Best Picture chart with 18/1 odds as of September 9. That’s up from a week earlier, September 2, when it was in 13th position with 50/1 odds. And if you go back to August 31, the day before the film was unveiled, it was down in 20th place with 100/1 odds. By the time you read this the film might be even higher.

But that’s not all. Brady Corbet has moved up to sixth place for Best Director. The 36-year-old filmmaker and actor previously helmed “The Childhood of a Leader” (2015) and “Vox Lux” (2018). His films have garnered no Oscar noms yet, but he did pick up a Best First Feature bid at the Independent Spirit Awards for “Childhood.”

In the Best Actor race, Brody is now fifth. This would be his first nomination since winning the category for “The Pianist” (2002), where he coincidentally also played a character who endured Nazi persecution. He also set a new record as the youngest Best Actor champ in history (he was 29 at the time), a record that still stands.

Felicity Jones, who plays Brody’s wife, has ascended to number-seven in the Best Supporting Actress race; she previously received a Best Actress bid for “The Theory of Everything” (2014). Guy Pearce, meanwhile, is on the cusp of a Best Supporting Actor nom, ranked sixth. Perhaps surprisingly, this would be Pearce’s first Oscar recognition despite past roles in Oscar movies like “L.A. Confidential” (1997), “Memento” (2001), “The Hurt Locker” (2009) and “The King’s Speech” (2010). Lastly, Corbet and co-writer Mona Fastvold are sixth for Best Original Screenplay.

If “The Brutalist” continues its upward trajectory in these races, that’s as many as six nominations and we haven’t even opened up below-the-line predictions yet. Might it even win Best Picture?