If Kamala Harris wins, what will happen to Gavin Newsom?

There is no love lost between ex-President Donald Trump and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. You could see this as early as 2017, when the two joined then-Gov. Jerry Brown to visit areas suffering wildfire damage in and near national forests.

The obvious distaste between Newsom, then the lieutenant governor, and then-President Trump was clear from their facial expressions each time they glanced at one another.

But irony occurs. And so, for Newsom to have much of a political future, he needs Trump to retake the presidency this fall and then leave peacefully at the end of what would be his second term.

Right now, there is no guarantee of either. As a result, there is no certainty today that Newsom has much of a long-term future in politics.

Here is the basic reality: Vice President Kamala Harris currently holds a narrow lead over Trump both in most national polls and surveys of likely voters in the swing states that figure to decide their autumn race.

Which raises the question: If Harris wins, whither Newsom?

He can’t run for governor again, ever, because of term limits, even though the current crop of 2026 candidates for Newsom’s current job can sometimes seem like pygmies beside him. Newsom has sat astride California politics almost all-powerfully most of the last six years. Whatever he’s wanted, he’s gotten. What he hasn’t wanted, has not happened.

Of course, that’s the power of his office at work. Newsom was not such a prepossessing figure in his previous job as lieutenant governor, just as current Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis has not seemed much of a presence – yet.

If Trump were to beat Harris this fall, Newsom would have two full years after the end of his term in Sacramento to travel the country running for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination. But if Harris wins and then runs for reelection in 2028, Newsom would have to wait for 2032.

At 56, he’s young enough to wait that long, as he’ll be 64 by then, a fairly typical age for presidential candidates.

The last California politician to spend six years running for President while out of office was Ronald Reagan, who labored so long in part because he lost in his bid for the 1976 GOP nomination. It eventually worked for him, as he spent most of those years campaigning for fellow Republicans in more than three dozen states, picking up chits for future favors. He easily beat out George H.W. Bush for the 1980 GOP nomination, then took Bush as his running mate.

Prior to President Biden’s sudden dropout from the current campaign, Newsom looked like a very strong candidate for his party’s 2028 nomination for what would be an empty seat if Trump left office peacefully.

But things have changed. Just by making Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz her vice presidential choice, Harris handed Newsom a major potential 2028 or 2032 competitor not previously on anyone’s radar. Her vetting process also gave new prominence to governors like Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper of North Carolina. All could be future competitors for Newsom, as could Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

One way for Newsom to remain nationally prominent would be to get a job in a Harris cabinet, if she wins this fall.

Serving as secretary of state certainly helped Hillary Clinton to the Democratic nomination in 2016.

But does Harris want Newsom around? The two maintained a wary alliance through much of their twin careers, both starting as proteges of former San Francisco Mayor Willie Brown and often sharing campaign managers, never competing for the same jobs.

But Harris kept Newsom off the stage at the summer Democratic National Convention, his only televised speech coming as he gave California delegate votes to Harris, thus making her nomination official.

Where his future potential rivals all had podium speaking slots, Newsom did not. This bodes poorly for a high-profile cabinet job like secretary of state or treasury.

So there’s a definite possibility Newsom could be left in the wilderness, much as Reagan was after Jerry Brown took over the governor’s office in 1974.

Right now, no one knows whether an out-of-office Newsom would have Reagan-style staying power, even if his hair is somewhat similarly thick and slick.

Email Thomas Elias at tdelias@aol.com.