Yankees series preview: Just like old times

The Royals and Yankees had a great playoff rivalry that could be renewed this fall.

The Royals and Yankees had a terrific post-season rivalry in the 70s, meeting four times in the ALCS. Those gave Royals fans some of the most heartbreaking losses in club history until Kansas City finally broke through to win the pennant in 1980. It is possible the two teams will match up again in the playoffs this fall for the first time in 44 seasons, but first they will meet this week in New York.

Kansas City Royals (79-65) vs. New York Yankees (82-61) at Yankee Stadium, New York, NY

Royals: 4.73 runs scored/game (10th in MLB), 4.06 runs allowed/game (6th)

Yankees: 5.03 runs scored/game (2nd), 4.18 runs allowed/game (11th)

The Yankees are tied for the third-best record in baseball and are currently the top team in the American League, a half-game better than the Orioles. However, they are just 24-21 since the All-Star break due to bullpen issues - their relievers have a 4.50 ERA in the second half.

The Yankees took three out of four from the Royals in Kansas City back in June. They are just 37-31 at home this year, but have the best record in baseball against teams with a .500 record or better at 47-33.

The Yankees have hit the most home runs in baseball (213) but have actually hit more on the road (110) than at home (103). Aaron Judge leads baseball in dingers, and has enjoyed Yankee Stadium with a home batting line of .330/.481/.740, and 26 of his 51 home runs have come at Yankee Stadium.

Yankees hitters have the highest-walk rate in baseball, thanks to Judge and Juan Soto, who are the top two in baseball at drawing a free pass. They are not free swingers either - the Yankees have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate. Judge and Soto make up 17.1 of the Yankees’ 30.1 fWAR on offense, and the team has just three other hitters who have an above-average OPS+ this year - slugger Giancarlo Stanton, rookie catcher Austin Wells, and newly-acquired infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr., who suffered a UCL injury a few weeks ago. Chisholm is hitting .316/.350/.596 with 9 home runs in 29 games since the Marlins traded him to New York.

Alex Verdugo has the fifth-worst wRC+ (84) in baseball among qualified hitters, but the Yankees are sticking with him in the lineup. Gleyber Torres is hitting just .228/.305/.339 at home. Anthony Rizzo is hitting just .216/.263/.230 against lefties, and has struggled in his first week back after a two-month absence with a wrist injury.

Carlos Rodón has bounced back from a disastrous 2023 season to win 14 games for the Yankees so far. He has a 3.18 ERA over his last eight starts and struck out a season-high 11 batters, allowing just one hit in six innings in his last start against the Rangers. The lefty has the 12th-best strikeout rate in baseball but the third-highest home run rate. He has a 3.08 ERA at home compared to 5.01 on the road. The Royals have hit him well over the years - he has a 4.82 ERA against them in 12 career starts including a shellacking near the end of last season where he gave up eight runs without recording an out.

Marcus Stroman is seventh in the league in how much he throws a sinker, using the pitch 34 percent of the time. It has helped him generate the eighth-highest groundball rate at 48.4 percent combined with his cutter, slider, slurve, splitter, and occasional four-seamer. He has the third-worst walk rate in baseball and worst strikeout-to-walk ratio. He couldn’t get through four innings his last time out, giving up nine hits and five runs against Texas but he tossed 5 2/3 innings of shutout baseball, allowing just four hits against the Royals in a Yankees win back in June.

Rookie Luis Gil has been solid for the Yankees with 13 wins on the year, although he leads the American League in walks. Gil throws a 96 mph four-seamer nearly half the time, but it has been effective with opponents hitting just .194 against it with a 28.5 percent whiff rate. He will also mix in a change up and slider, both of which have been effective pitchs as well. Righties are hitting just .153/.276/.260 against him this year.

The Yankees bullpen has a 3.81 ERA overall, not too bad, but it has been their weakness this season. Clay Holmes leads all of baseball with 11 blown saves in 40 chances and manager Aaron Boone says he will now be “creative” with closing games. Former Royals pitcher Luke Weaver has been the best Yankees reliever, getting a save opportunity this week, but he has a 5.59 ERA since the All-Star break. Mark Leiter Jr. has a 5.79 ERA in 15 games since being acquired from the Cubs. Lefty Tim Mayza is allowing righties to hit .375/.420/.681 against him. Nestor Cortes Jr. has been a starter all year but was asked to make a relief appearance over the weekend which did not go over well with him.

The Yankees series should be the last one in the dreaded “gauntlet” the Royals have faced against top teams. Despite a seven-game losing streak in the middle of that stretch, the Royals have gone 8-9 so far and have actually further solidified their playoff position. This series will give them a chance to see how they match up against a serious contender in what could be a playoff preview - the Royals and Yankees, at it again, just like old times.