College Football Playoff projections: Oklahoma State’s (possibly) big win and three at-large bids for SEC, Big Ten
Expansion of the College Football Playoff is arguably the greatest competitive change in the sport’s history — more significant than the move from the Bowl Championship Series to the four-team CFP a decade ago. Each week, the Hotline will dive into the CFP race with a look at the frontrunners, bubble teams and key developments across the landscape.
Although the result didn’t resonate deeply across college football, Oklahoma State’s overtime escape from Arkansas could become a very big deal in the CFP selection process.
It could make all the difference in the allocation of at-large berths.
Will the SEC and Big Ten gobble all seven?
How will the Big 12 and ACC fare?
Those questions will play out over time, but Oklahoma State’s victory caught our attention for its potential impact in the committee room on the first weekend in December.
If Arkansas performs well in the SEC, the benefits to Oklahoma State’s resume specifically, and the Big 12’s at-large hopes generally, will be immeasurable.
Yes, the same could be said of Iowa State’s last-second win at Iowa — a head-to-head victory for the Big 12 on Big Ten turf.
But there’s one significant difference between beating back Arkansas and edging Iowa: The Razorbacks’ schedule is loaded with ranked opponents; Iowa’s schedule is not.
The Hogs play No. 2 Texas, No. 5 Mississippi, No. 6 Missouri, No. 7 Tennessee and No. 16 LSU, and every game but one (Missouri) is in Fayetteville.
It’s one of the most enticing lineups of home dates in any conference.
And if the Razorbacks take down one or two ranked foes, the collateral impact on Oklahoma State’s resume would be significant. That, in turn, would aid the entire Big 12.
It could even be the tipping point that gets the Cowboys — or the team that finishes one spot above OSU in the conference standings — into the CFP.
Playoff expansion has created an at-large pool in college football akin to what we see with March Madness, where non-conference victories can have a compounding impact on entire leagues and, as a result, enemies should be treated as friends.
The Big 12, it seems, just became an ardent Arkansas fan.
To the projections …
Automatic bids
The five highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP, with the top four earning opening-round byes. The best team from the Group of Five will be seeded according to its ranking.
No. 1 Georgia (SEC): The Bulldogs have one of the toughest road schedules in the history of the sport with trips to No. 2 Texas, No. 4 Alabama and No. 5 Mississippi. They can afford to lose two.
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten): Is USC, not Oregon or Michigan, the greatest threat to Ohio State’s dominance of the Big Ten?
No. 3 Utah (Big 12): For the Big 12 winner, the climb to the No. 2 seed is steep — perhaps impossibly so — but the fall to the No. 4 seed is short.
No. 4 Miami (ACC): The Hurricanes stand as clear frontrunners in the ACC, but we are struggling to identify their chief challenger.
No. 12: Boise State (Mountain West): The close loss at Oregon will help Boise State’s case, given that the CFP’s Group of Five participant will face a comparable experience on the road against the No. 5 seed.
At-large qualifiers
The seven highest-ranked non-champions will receive at-large bids. There is no limit to the number of at-large teams from a particular conference.
ACC: None. The Hotline has assumed all along that the ACC and Big 12 will combine to produce one at-large qualifier each year.
Big 12: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys don’t play Arizona, Iowa State or Kansas and have only one daunting road game (Kansas State).
Big Ten: Oregon, Penn State and USC. The significance of Penn State’s mid-October trip to USC has grown immensely with the Trojans’ impressive start. Meanwhile, the Ducks have wobbled but not fallen, which is all that matters.
SEC: Alabama, Tennessee and Texas. The Longhorns were as impressive at Michigan as the Crimson Tide was mediocre against South Florida. We moved Tennessee into the at-large field at Mississippi’s expense this week following the blowout win over N.C. State.
Independent: None. As a point of order, the Pac-12 teams, Washington State and Oregon State, will be treated as Independents in the selection process — only the at-large path is available to them.
Bubble teams
Expansion of the CFP has created room for a bubble comparable to the NCAA Tournament. The size of the bubble will ebb and flow throughout the season based on the latest results.
ACC: Clemson. We’re saying there’s a chance, especially if Georgia blasts through the SEC and makes Clemson’s Week 1 loss in Atlanta feel slightly more palatable.
Big 12: Arizona, Iowa State and Kansas State. The Cyclones collected the win they needed (in Iowa City) and now must avoid the losses that could doom their chances. Arizona and KSU were challenged but not derailed.
Big Ten: Iowa, Michigan and Nebraska. Iowa’s margin for error was sliced in half by the loss to Iowa State while the Cornhuskers just enhanced their resume, especially if Colorado produces a few quality wins in the Big 12. Meanwhile, Michigan is teetering.
SEC: LSU, Mississippi, Missouri and Oklahoma. We haven’t ruled out four at-large teams for the SEC but need a larger sample size of results to gain clarity on the matter.
Projected matchups
The No. 5 through 12 seeds will play opening-round games on the campus of the higher seed, with the winners advancing to the quarterfinals on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day.
No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Tennessee: Yes, the Vols visit Georgia in the middle of November, but as a point of order: The committee won’t tweak seeds to avoid regular-season rematches, either in the opening round of the playoff or the quarterfinals. Winner plays No. 1 Georgia
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 USC: There is one premier broadcast window for the opening-round games, on Dec. 21 at 5 p.m., with no NFL competition. In our scenario, this game gets that slot. Winner plays No. 2 Ohio State
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Oklahoma State: Granted, it’s early, but we are struggling to envision a scenario in which the Big 12 is seeded high enough (No. 5 thru 8) to host an opening-round game. Winner plays No. 3 Utah
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State: It’s possible this matchup would feature two Heisman Trophy finalists — the ceremony is the weekend before the CFP begins — in Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty. Winner plays No. 4 Miami.
Looking ahead: Week 3
Each week, the Hotline will examine a handful of games that figure to impact the CFP race for automatic and at-large bids.
(All times Pacific)
Arizona at Kansas State (Friday, 5 p.m. on Fox): Intriguing matchup that doesn’t count toward the conference standings but will tell us plenty about where the Wildcats — both of them — stand in the Big 12 race.
Alabama at Wisconsin (9 a.m on Fox): First significant test for new Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer and a fabulous opportunity for the Big Ten to add a premier victory to its ledger — a victory that could unlock the door to four at-large bids.
Oregon at Oregon State (12:30 p.m. on Fox): A few weeks ago, this rivalry game looked like a lopsided affair. But Oregon’s subpar showings against Idaho and Boise State have added an element of drama to the Civil War.
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