SCO Summit: A Diplomatic Deadlock Or A Chance For Change? – OpEd

The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, scheduled to take place in Islamabad on October 15-16, was initially viewed as a significant opportunity for India and Pakistan to reset their strained diplomatic relations. However, as the date approaches, it seems increasingly likely that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not attend, casting doubts on whether the summit can serve as a platform for dialogue between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

India’s Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that an invitation had been received from Pakistan, yet the Indian government has remained tight-lipped about whether it will accept. This indecision, as noted by former Pakistani diplomat Maleeha Lodhi, suggests that Modi may ultimately choose not to make the trip to Islamabad. This hesitance reflects the broader state of India-Pakistan relations, which have remained frozen since 2019 when India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s special status. The revocation of Article 370 was a watershed moment in India-Pakistan relations, severely straining ties between the two countries. Pakistan viewed the move as a violation of United Nations resolutions and a direct affront to the status of Kashmir, a region that has been the source of conflict between the two nations since their independence in 1947. Since then, efforts to restart dialogue have faltered, with both sides entrenched in their respective positions.

Pakistan’s participation in multilateral forums like the SCO has been seen as a potential means to facilitate dialogue with India, even if only on the sidelines. Earlier this year, Pakistan’s former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari attended an SCO conclave in India, signaling Pakistan’s willingness to engage in diplomacy. Additionally, in March, Pakistan’s new foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, hinted at the possibility of reevaluating trade relations with India. However, India has not reciprocated these gestures, further diminishing the prospect of meaningful dialogue at the SCO summit.

India’s reluctance to engage with Pakistan has broader implications for regional cooperation and stability. The SCO, which includes major players like Russia, China, and the Central Asian republics, offers a platform for multilateral cooperation that could benefit both India and Pakistan. However, India’s continued resistance to dialogue is disturbing possibilities of regional peace and cooperation. The frozen relationship between India and Pakistan not only affects bilateral ties but also hampers efforts to foster greater cooperation within South Asia.

Michael Kugelman, director of the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute, emphasized that while the SCO is more resilient than the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the frozen ties between India and Pakistan still pose a challenge. Unlike SAARC, which has been rendered nearly redundant due to India’s dominance and the stalemate with Pakistan, the SCO is influenced by larger powers like China and Russia. However, the tensions between India and Pakistan continue to cast a shadow over the organization’s ability to facilitate cooperation in the region.

Despite the seemingly insurmountable challenges, there are some who remain optimistic about the future of India-Pakistan relations. Senior Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir has expressed hope that over time, both countries will soften their borders and engage in more constructive dialogue. Mir believes that within the next 10 to 15 years, South Asia could see the emergence of soft borders, including in Jammu and Kashmir. He even envisions a future where the region adopts EU-style open borders within the next 30 to 40 years. While Mir’s optimism may seem far-fetched given the current state of affairs, it underscores the enduring hope for peace between the two nations. However, achieving such a vision would require significant shifts in both countries’ approaches to diplomacy, security, and regional cooperation.

In the end, both India and Pakistan must recognize that their long-standing issues cannot be resolved through isolation and hostility. Meaningful dialogue, even in multilateral settings like the SCO, is essential for regional stability and peace. Until both sides are willing to come to the table, however, South Asia will remain trapped in a state of limbo, with the threat of tensions escalating at any moment. As the dates for the SCO summit draw nearer, India’s decision on its participation will be closely watched. While it seems unlikely that Modi will make the trip to Islamabad, the hope for future dialogue remains. Whether through the SCO or other platforms, the path to peace requires both nations to set aside their differences and prioritize the long-term stability of the region.