Buckle up — the Harris-Trump debate is going to be a wild ride 

After weeks of will-they, won’t-they theatrics, Vice President Harris and former President Trump will go toe-to-toe this Tuesday in a live debate hosted by ABC News. If Trump fares poorly, it’s also likely to be the last time the American people get a chance to see the two major candidates lay out their visions for our national future. 

There’s one big difference between tomorrow’s match-up and the first presidential debate back in June: This time, Donald Trump will be the old man in the race. Unlike his summer matchup against President Biden, which was nothing short of a fiasco for Democrats, Trump’s team seems aware that 90 minutes squaring off with Harris, a former prosecutor, will be a considerably more challenging effort. 

As usual, cable news outlets will have no shortage of professional punditry analyzing what goes down in Philadelphia. But beyond the talking points, Harris and Trump are hoping to win over the dwindling pool of voters who tell pollsters they still haven’t made up their mind. That means both candidates will be bringing their sharpest messaging to the debate stage — and hoping something sticks. 

Here are the biggest issues Trump and Harris will need to address on Tuesday night, and why their responses could once again reshape the 2024 presidential contest. 

Trump: Abortion, abortion, abortion 

Abortion was always going to be a centerpiece of any serious debate this year. What’s unexpected is how the political pressure around Republicans’ staggeringly unpopular anti-abortion laws has reshaped candidate Trump’s positions.  

Just over a year ago, the ex-president bragged about his pivotal role in restricting reproductive rights, telling supporters on Truth Social “I was able to kill Roe v. Wade.” Even a few months ago he was still celebrating his role in picking the Supreme Court justices responsible for overturning half a century of abortion rights. But after nose-diving in recent polls due in large part to women fleeing the Republican Party and a survey showing women voters now rank abortion rights above the economy as their top issue, Trump is racing to rebrand himself as a fighter for reproductive freedom.  

That’s going to be a tough sell. 

Still, Trump has no choice but to try. Expect to see the former president on Tuesday suddenly championing IVF fertility treatments that many in his party oppose. That includes Trump’s latest empty pledge to protect and federally fund IVF — a proposal that goes much further than a bill Senate Republicans summarily rejected over the summer that would have guaranteed access to the treatment nationwide. Similar plans have been condemned as socialism by conservatives before; I guess socialism is OK if your polling is bad enough. 

Trump has quite the mountain to climb in convincing anyone that he really cares about abortion access. A Redfield & Wilton poll released last week found that a majority of swing-state voters side with Democrats on protecting abortion rights. Those same voters overwhelmingly blame Republicans — and Trump specifically — for restricting their reproductive freedom.  

Harris: Flip-flops or evolution? 

Kamala Harris has surged in national and swing state polling since taking over the Democratic ticket in July, but she’s conducted comparatively few live television interviews. That raises the stakes of Tuesday’s debate, where Harris will be tasked with selling Democrats’ vision of a Trump-free future while also facing tough questions about her evolving positions on key issues.  

In recent days, Republican pundits have done their best to frame Harris as a flip-flopper. They cite her reversal on issues including banning fracking, an electric vehicle mandate, and even her early support for banning plastic straws. While there’s no doubt Harris has evolved her positions over the years — she briefly supported Medicare for All as a first-year senator but hasn’t seriously considered the idea since 2020 — her ability to fend off claims of flip-flopping will be critical to maintaining control of the stage during the debate. 

Swing-state voters tell pollsters they’re still skeptical about Harris’s current beliefs. If she can put those concerns to rest by contextualizing her policy shifts as part of her growing experience as a national politician, that could go a long way to quieting the lingering concerns of persuadable voters Harris needs to win over.

On the other hand, if she appears evasive or lacks clear answers (for example, about her recent hawkish shift on immigration policy), she risks dampening the enthusiasm she has enjoyed with her Democratic base. Political history has shown that voters are willing to accept that a candidate’s views have changed; what they won’t accept is the idea that a candidate has switched positions simply for the sake of winning votes — as Trump just did on abortion. 

The race is close enough that neither candidate can afford to coast through Tuesday’s big debate. While it’s unlikely either Trump or Harris delivers a knock-out punch that resets the entire race, small errors can quickly add up. In swing states where a few thousand votes could determine a winner, neither candidate can afford those mistakes.  

Here we go again. 

Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.